​​​​​​​Predictions about the future of Kazakhstan: its sale to Russia to increase increase

 For nearly two weeks now, events in Kazakhstan have preoccupied world public opinion.  Although the protests started over the hike in fuel prices, dictatorship, corruption and a repressive regime are important reasons for Kazakhs to take to the streets.

 After the protests escalated, the government resigned and a state of emergency was declared in the country.  164 people were killed and about 10,000 people were arrested.

 President Kassym-Gomert Tokayev claimed that foreign forces are behind the activists and are trained abroad, and requested the support of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.  Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus and Armenia, members of the group, sent troops into the country.

 On the events in Kazakhstan and the subsequent repercussions on Turkey, we had an interview with the expert on Russian affairs, Dr.  Karim Hass.

 * How do you evaluate the events of Kazakhstan, and do they have a historical background?

 There have been occasional protests in Kazakhstan.  It is not a very calm country.  Similar things happened in 2019 when Nazarbayev handed over power to Tokayev.  But other than that, raising gas and oil prices was the ultimate limit, and there hasn't been such a price since then.  This price has caused various tensions, and there are oil and gas companies in the regions of Jana Ouzin, Akdav and Mangstaff, so the difference between the rich and the poor is much larger.

 Kazakhstan's minimum wage fell to $140 on New Year's Eve.  Therefore, the number of poor is increasing.  Kazakhstan is a rich country, but 60 percent of Kazakhstan's production is frozen.  Countries that depend on this energy have their own rich and poor.  There is inequality in the distribution of income in Kazakhstan, and this inequality is much greater where the protests began.

 In my opinion, the protests came for internal social and economic reasons, and with the spread of these protests, political demands continued.  Criticism increased for Nazarbayev, and his statue was demolished.  There are many allegations of corruption against him and his family, and a week ago the Russian and Western media started talking about corruption.  Nazarbayev's three daughters are high-ranking officials and his son-in-law is in charge of oil companies, and this has also led to a backlash in society.

 * The Kazakh president described the protesters as "terrorists" and said he had ordered the police to beat them.  Will this policy stop the protests?  Why did Tokayev try such a method?

 Nazarbayev relinquished his position to Tokayev in 2019, but he and his team did not relinquish power as a shadow government.  Thus corruption and the continuation of the last political administration was a nuisance in society.  Tokayev was also Nazarbayev's man; for years he was foreign minister and a Soviet diplomat in Soviet-era China.  His relations with the West are also not bad. He occupied high positions in the United Nations.  But for three years, the state has been run by two parties.  So the people wanted Nazarbayev to resign.

 The protests began on January 2, and the decision to raise prices was reversed in 14 regions of Kazakhstan.  But the situation changed on January 5.  When the people expressed their discontent with Nazarbayev, he "illegally" removed Tokayev from the presidency of the Security Council, and then the government took power.

 And intelligence chief Karim Masimov resigned.  Tokayev wanted to blame those close to Nazarbayev, and these demonstrations could have been "repressed" without outside support.  But 99 percent of the security bureaucracy failed, and armed men appeared inside the protests on January 5.  Perhaps there were people who came from abroad, but the team, which is in the midst of the intelligence and security bureaucracy and is facing a loss of strength, did so against Tokayev.  Some of the agitators who wanted the Tokayev regime to survive may have joined the protests in order to criminalize and terrorize the protesters "and they succeeded to some extent".

 Since 2-5 January, many of the people who took to the streets have safely returned to their homes.  After January 5, the peaceful protests turned into a war with the security bureaucracy.

 *Some countries have taken steps to intervene.  Russia, Armenia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Belarus have sent troops to Kazakhstan under the umbrella of the Peace Force, most recently the CSTO.  How have these developments affected?

 This meeting is a show of strength, and means that "the situation is under control."  It is a message addressed not only to those who oppose the government of Kazakhstan led by Tokayev, but also to the West.  Russia says to the West: “I was immediately able to intervene in the events that took place in my backyard, that is, Kazakhstan, within 4-5 days and get a positive result.”

 Tokayev said that there was external interference in the name of "terrorism", and that after January 5, he had the opportunity to seek help from the CSTO.  Under the treaty it is leading, the deployment of troops from Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan should be considered.  If only the Russian army entered alone, it might look like it was occupied.  Countries other than Russia sent their troops symbolically.  90% of the soldiers are Russian.  "I support Tokayev," Russia said.  The entire security bureaucracy was hesitant before January 5th, but when Russia intervened, all forces united behind Tokayev.  The regime was created in a few days.

 I do not think that the conflict within the security bureaucracy will continue as long as Russia remains on the ground.  It turned out that all charges would be brought against Karim Masimov, who was arrested on January 5, the political and security elite loyal to Nazarbayev may be eliminated.  Tokayev, with the help of Russia, became the sole ruler to extend his control over the country.

 In Kazakhstan, we will see in the near future that Tokayev's loyalty to Russia has increased so much that he owes his power to Moscow.  A compromise can be reached by allowing Nazarbayev's team to remain in the country or protect their homes and property, on the condition that it withdraws from the political struggle.  The media reported that Nazarbayev had left the country.  But I think he is still in the country.  If he remains in the country and his in-laws remain in charge of the energy companies, then we can say that an agreement has been reached within the ruling opposition.

 * US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said, "As a lesson from recent history, if Russians come into your house, it's very difficult to turn them away."  What does Blinken want to say with this statement?

 This is a political struggle between the great powers.  I do not think that the Russian forces will go to war in Kazakhstan.  I do not think that negative steps will be taken against the Kazakhs.  Russian forces can protect strategic facilities, government buildings and energy facilities in Kazakhstan.  I am not convinced that the need for Russian forces will increase and that they will likely do so.  Soldiers who entered under the Collective Security Treaty will soon leave Kazakhstan.

 *Kazakh mafia boss Arman Dike was arrested in Kazakhstan, and pictures of him and many others such as Sadat Bakr, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and Alaeddin Kıçıkci spread.  What is Turkey's role in the events of Kazakhstan?

 In recent years, Erdogan's administration has had close relations with many gangs, drug lords and jihadist groups, and this was evident through the confessions of Sedat Bakr or others.  Unfortunately, the Turkish government is attracting all the criminal organizations in the world and committing more crimes.  The corruption of December 17-25, the events of Gaza, the rejection of the Kurds after the peace process period, and their crimes alongside ISIS are increasing day by day in both Syria and Iraq.  Criminal organizations, jihadists, mafia, terrorist organization and ISIS leaders in Turkey have become a subject of controversy.  I don't think Erdogan intentionally sent Arman Dicke to Kazakhstan.  The insolence of the Turkish government is drawing the attention of the leaders of criminal organizations.

 *Can these events affect Turkey?

 Income inequality is very high in Kazakhstan, corruption and the problems that the country is experiencing due to price hikes and the pandemic persist.  There are no energy sources in Turkey like Kazakhstan.  The economic crisis in Turkey is deepening day by day and there is no money in the coffers.

 In Kazakhstan, the authoritarian regime will be strengthened with Tokayev and the issues that cause problems will be covered up, but social and economic assistance will be provided in order to guarantee society, but Turkey is not in a position to provide social assistance.  The future of Turkey under Erdogan is much worse than that of Kazakhstan.  Tokayev says there are 20,000 terrorists in Kazakhstan, while Erdogan has been saying for years that there are millions of terrorists in Turkey.  The number of people considered by Erdogan as terrorists is increasing day by day.  The economic crisis on the one hand, and the policies of criminalization and intimidation of opposing parties on the other hand could pave the way for a big explosion.  Turkey is one of the countries that should learn from Kazakhstan because it is exposed to the same risks.

 In countries with oligarchy rule, crises persist for a long time, such as Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkey and South Kurdistan, and this is happening in the name of democracy.  What country can accidents like the one in Kazakhstan have in?

 There are different dynamics in every country, Turkmenistan is a very closed country.  It is no different from North Korea.  There is an economic crisis, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov is a dictator.  Turkmenistan, in my opinion, is imploding inside.

 There may be a social explosion in Turkmen society, due to the culture of immigration, the absence of political opposition, the lack of media freedom, and Turkmenistan's relations with the outside world.  This will not happen in the near future.  But when that happens, there will be an internal breakdown.

 There are bloody changes in power in Kyrgyzstan, and there is a difference between the south and the north.  Sadr Gabarov came to power in 2020. Tribal relations are also influential in Kyrgyzstan.  The Uzbek-Kyrgyz difference appears in some way.  There may also be social explosions.  Through the constitutional changes made after the Gabarov administration came to power, it became a monolithic authority.  There are many people waiting for Gabarov's throne to be shaken.

 After Islam Karimov, Shevket Mirziyoyev politically alleviated his political problems in Uzbekistan.  But it also does not provide a complete economic perspective.  There is also economic discontent in society.

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