​​​​​​​Turks pay price for Erdogan's adventures.. Not too soon recovery of Turkish economy

 The Turkish economy is facing a stifling crisis after the Turkish lira lost a third of its value as it reached the threshold of 14 lira against one dollar, which is the lowest level it has witnessed in two years of successive economic shocks, which has further complicated the already dire living situation of the people and sparked condemnation and condemnation in Turkish circles.  Against the decisions and policies pursued by the government led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

 The Turkish economy has gradually entered the scope of the crisis, with the Justice and Development government headed by Recep Erdogan directing all the country’s capabilities to serve the military machine, and implement its occupying projects in the Middle East.  To both Libya and Karabagh, in addition to supporting Muslim Brotherhood groups in all parts of the world and providing them with money at the expense of the Turkish people.

 The floundering financial policies of the Turkish government, Erdogan’s interventions in the financial policies of the Turkish Central Bank, and the international sanctions imposed on them as a result of the policies he pursues and his interventions in neighboring countries, have resulted in a reality that the Turkish economy has not witnessed before. Inflation rates during the last months of the current year reached 21%, to  The continuous decline in its currency, which led to a sharp rise in prices that led to a deterioration in the standard of living.

 Unemployment is increasing

 In the last statistics of the Turkish Statistical Institute in September, the number of the unemployed rose to about 3 million and 800 thousand.

 On the impact of the economic crisis lived by the Turks and the intransigence of the Turkish president with respect to interest rates policy, protests erupted on the evening of November 23 in many Turkish cities, as citizens swept the streets demanding the government go after Erdogan worded to keep interest rates low despite severe inflation.

 Analysts believe that Erdogan's comments, who dubbs himself as the "enemy of interest rates", pushed the Turkish lira down significantly, and that his military interventions in neighboring countries and his draining of all the state's development resources in the service of militarism and wars and his strained relations with the West have led to the worsening of the economic situation.

 Observers criticize the Turkish Central Bank's commitment to Erdogan's instructions to keep interest rates low, his interference in the bank's financial policies, and the institution's inability to achieve price stability, while some accused him of being the reason for turning the Turkish currency into a "notorious currency."

 Erdogan dismissed the former Finance Minister Lutfi Alwan, and named his deputy, Nureddin Nobati, as his successor, because he was opposed to Erdogan's policies in lowering interest rates.

 wrong policies

 In this regard, Sarkis Kassarjian, a writer and journalist specializing in Turkish affairs, attributes, in a statement to our agency, the economic deterioration in Turkey to several reasons, and he highlights the main ones to the wrong economic policies at home and the Turkish state's policies abroad.  On investment, that is, it is an investment economy, not a production, and therefore the welfare that Turkey witnessed in the era of justice and development is due to a large part of the foreign money and foreign investments that supplied the Turkish market through it, when Turkey represented a point of attraction for foreign investors and a new market after its openness to the Middle East and its announcement the zero-problems policy.”

 He added, "But this money and economic growth was exploited by Turkey, putting it in the service of the infrastructure , thus the industry and productivity went undeveloped."

 sanctions

 Late last year, the United States imposed sanctions on the Turkish Defense Industries Presidency over Ankara's purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system, and stressed that the deal would risk the security of American military technology and American military personnel. These sanctions include blocking all export licenses to the "Defense Industries Administration" and refusing to grant  No visas for its president, Ismail Demir, and relations between the American and Turkish parties are still tense and the sanctions are still in force.

 On October 7, the United States extended the sanctions on Turkey due to its military attack on the regions of northern and eastern Syria in the fall of 2019 and its massacres against humanity, and declared that the state of emergency declared pursuant to Executive Order No. 13894 of October 14  October 2019 is valid for another year.

 On November 11, the European Union extended, for an additional year, the validity of sanctions previously imposed on Turkey for carrying out energy exploration activities in disputed waters in the eastern Mediterranean. These sanctions include freezing the assets of persons and entities responsible for unauthorized drilling activities.  The search for or participation in hydrocarbons at sea, as well as the ban on travel to the European Union, and the prevention of funds from being made available to the parties targeted by these sanctions.

 The European Union imposed these sanctions on Turkey in 2019 in response to its implementation of exploration work for oil and gas fields in waters considered by Brussels to belong to Cyprus, a member of the bloc.

 In this context, Kassarjian pointed out that the international reactions against Turkey, which escalated due to the Turkish hard power policies (its foreign policies), its interference in several countries and its attempt to engineer them according to the Turkish vision, and the strained relations with the West led to the withdrawal of foreign investments, and Kassarjian went on to say: "  That is, there are no new investments investing in Turkey, and existing investments fleeing the market for fear of the worst, and as I said earlier, investment is looking primarily for stability, and this stability has been lost in Turkey, as well as relations with neighboring countries have become bad. Relations with the European Union are bad and with the United States are tense,  What kind of luxury we saw in Turkey began to decline."

 Hard power policy and its implications for the Turkish economy

 Sarkis Kassarjian pointed out that "the turning point of the Turkish economy into a deteriorating economy began in 2018. The Justice and Development government did not accept this situation and instead of addressing the causes, it tended to push more towards hard power policies until the matter now came to the absence of a foreign investor entering the market  The Turkish investors, and the existing investors, a large part of them have liquidated their businesses and thus the business liquidation means an increase in the demand for the dollar because when the investor liquidates his business, he will transfer his money into hard currency and take it out of the market again, meaning it is not enough only that the dollar does not enter the Turkish market, but there is a bleeding of the dollar and this  This led to the deterioration of the Turkish lira and its lowest levels.

 Affect Erdogan's popularity

 In light of the sharp decline in the Turkish lira - the worst performing currency among emerging markets this year - Erdogan, whose popularity has declined significantly due to the economic crisis that has ravaged the Turkish lira and the purchasing power of Turks, is afraid of holding early elections called for by the opposition parties and which Erdogan categorically rejects  .

 Thousands of people gathered in the southern Turkish province of Mersin to call early elections due to Erdogan's failed economic policies and the lira's slide to an unprecedented level against the dollar.

 On the other hand, the Turkish government insists that the elections will be held in June 2023, while researchers point out that there are no signs of improvement in the economy under the current administration headed by Erdogan, and some expect Erdogan's defeat in the upcoming presidential elections.

 Kassarjian stresses that Erdogan's economic and foreign policies will negatively affect his popularity, and says: "Politics affects the popularity of the authority in any country as much as it affects the economy and the latter's impact on the citizen's livelihood. Today we are talking about economic and foreign policies that directly affected the price of a loaf of bread and the price of bread.  The Turkish citizen’s income and salary will certainly affect his popularity, despite Erdogan’s attempt to circumvent this influence through promises he makes and talking about economic and other plans.

 And he continues: "But Erdogan is also aware that the situation at the present time has become worrying and threatening to his political future, and this is what prompted him to quit all his projects represented by the neo-Ottomanism and the domination of the Muslim Brotherhood in the region and to move towards a comprehensive discourse calling for peace and building good relations and communication between countries. This means this change  In the speech, Erdogan feels the danger to his political future."

 Kassarjian believes that holding the presidential elections early would be "absolute political suicide" for Erdogan.

 not a gift

 After a decade-long political estrangement, Turkey and the UAE signed a number of trade agreements on the sidelines of Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed's visit to Ankara, and his meeting with Erdogan on November 24.

 The agreements and memoranda of cooperation between the two countries included the fields of trade, energy, environment and investment. Abu Dhabi also announced the establishment of a fund worth ten billion dollars to support investments in Turkey.

 On the possibility of lifting these agreements out of the troubled Turkish economy, Sarkis Kassarjian says: "Neither this agreement is useful for pulling Turkey out of the economic crisis. It can be considered a boost to the economy, but it is not an investment that can transform the Turkish economy overnight and from a crisis economy into a recovering economy."

 And Kassarjian indicated that Turkey today needs a greater number of investing partners such as the UAE and Qatar, and it is now trying with Saudi Arabia, with Egypt and European countries, even with the United States, and thus it only enhances the confidence of foreign investors who may see the UAE's entry into the Turkish market as a catalyst for the return of the political atmosphere  And security and stability, and added: “They may start thinking more about returning to invest in Turkey, but this investment, this agreement, and the ten billion dollars in themselves will not save the Turkish economy because they are not originally a gift and aid to Turkey. They are investments in which long-term plans need years to be accomplished and their effects.”  It will not be worth ten billion dollars, that is, it is not hot money placed in the Turkish center in the form of dollars, for example, as a gift or aid, as previously done by Qatar and the pro-Turkish government in Libya, and therefore it certainly will not contribute to an immediate and immediate recovery.

 No recovery in the short term

 The writer and journalist specializing in Turkish affairs, Sarkis Kassarjian, concludes his speech by saying: "The Turkish economy cannot recover in the short term. The government has begun and retracted many of its steps, starting with building bridges with the Gulf countries and European countries and talking about zeroing problems with the parties that Turkey was hostile to.  But the issue of the economic crisis needs many years to recover."

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 ANHA