Panorama of week: Russia is putting pressure on Turkey in Idlib, weapons threaten Iraqi elections

 During the past week, the Arab newspapers addressed the escalation in Idlib and the upcoming meetings of Russia, Turkey and Iran, in addition to the upcoming Iraqi elections, in addition to the Libyan crisis.

 Turkish crowds and Russian raids northwest of Syria

 Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper spoke about the escalation between Russia and Turkey in the so-called “de-escalation” area, and said: “Turkey sent military reinforcements to Idlib, and carried out a movement among its forces deployed in its military observation points in the de-escalation zones, northwest Syria, to prevent  Any attempt to advance on the part of the Syrian regime forces, to control the areas controlled by the opposition loyal to them.

 Turkish sources revealed that "more than 4,000 soldiers and about 500 armored vehicles and vehicles have been transferred to Syria, including tanks that have been deployed along the potential directions of the government forces' attack."

 Russian sources had previously indicated that the number of Turkish bases had increased several times, from 11 to 27, located to the south of the borders of the "safe corridor" agreed upon between Turkey and Russia, within the framework of the ceasefire agreement in Idlib, signed on March 5.  (March) 22020 with the deployment of tanks and heavy weapons.

 The Turkish moves came in light of an escalation of Russian air strikes, along with Damascus’s warplanes, on the (opposition) control areas in Idlib, while Turkish officials attributed it to Moscow’s pressure on Ankara before an expected meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in a resort  Sochi on September 29, as well as the tripartite summit that will include Iran within the framework of the Astana process.

 Ankara considered that the intense strikes launched by Russian and Syrian warplanes on targets in Idlib in recent weeks indicate that the calm that has prevailed in the region since the March 2020 agreement, which came after an attack by Damascus forces on a Turkish military point in Idlib, which killed 33 soldiers in  Feb 27, it's starting to change.  And that the sudden escalation of Russian air strikes in Idlib can be read in the context of Moscow's efforts to pressure Ankara for other reasons, as well as exploiting its preoccupation with the Afghanistan file.

 In light of the increasing the Russian air attacks, and the killing of 3 Turkish soldiers during a combing operation last week, Turkish officials are apprehensive about the explosion of the situation on the borders, the change in the balance of power, in addition to the emergence of a new wave of migration from Idlib towards Turkish territory.

 Unarmed weapons threaten the Iraqi parliamentary elections

 Regarding the Iraqi elections, Al-Arab newspaper said: "The level of concern has risen among popular circles, political forces and independent candidates about the danger of putting arms in the electoral process, after the intensification of competition with the approach of holding the Iraqi parliamentary elections on the tenth of next October.

 Those circles voiced their fears that militias and political and sectarian forces would pressure the voters by force of arms and threats to vote for them.

 It is noteworthy that the Al-Fateh coalition led by Hadi al-Amiri brings together militias close to Iran in a large electoral list, and the Sadrist movement, backed by the armed Mahdi Army, is pushing for a major electoral victory that has been preparing for it for months.

The Coalition of state of law is headed by the leader of the Islamic Dawa Party, Nuri al-Maliki, is leading an electoral campaign in which he spent huge sums of money, invested to lure clans with money and weapons in order to vote for the coalition's candidates.

 Al-Maliki had warned that any fraud in the elections, monitored by hundreds of international supervisors, would lead to a civil war in Iraq.

 The al-Nasr Coalition, led by former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, called on political forces, especially those that possess weapons, to sign a "code of honor" not to involve arms in the electoral process.

 Election monitoring organizations from the European Union and the United Nations do not hide their concerns about the impact of uncontrolled weapons on voters' choices in a number of Iraqi provinces.

 The presence of uncontrolled weapons is not limited to the factions, most of which participate in the parliamentary elections in the Al-Fateh coalition, the Sadrist movement and the State of Law coalition, but the majority of Iraqi tribes are armed and they work to support candidates and influence the convictions of the voter on polling day.

Iraqi President Barham Salih and Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi had pushed the leaders of the electoral blocs to sign an electoral code of conduct;  In order to secure equal opportunities for the candidates and maintain the peace and integrity of the parliamentary elections.

 However, this did not ease the fears that the upcoming elections in Iraq would turn into a conflict between competing blocs and parties and resort to illegal voting operations, and then disagreement after the results were announced.

 The Iraqi political writer, Mustafa Salem, expressed his pessimism about what is happening by saying, "Let us admit that the problem of the elections lies in the fact that the government, the commission, the judiciary, candidates, observers, and those who will participate in it are all in one camp."

 Salem said in a statement to “Al-Arab” that “the public’s boycott of the elections is not sufficient, and those who could not influence its overthrow should sit at home, because sitting is a timid vote in favor of Iraq.”

 The Iraqi government pledged to mobilize its security forces and to cooperate with the Independent High Electoral Commission to ensure the safety and transparency of the voting process.

 Libya .. What is behind the withdrawal of confidence from the Dabaiba government?

 On the Libyan issue, Al-Bayan newspaper said: “The decision of the Libyan House of Representatives to withdraw confidence from the government of national unity, headed by Abdel Hamid Dabaiba, unleashed a state of controversy in the country about the future of the political process.

 Political circles in western Libya considered this step a severe blow to a political project that Dabaiba was seeking to contest through parliamentary elections through independent lists that it supports.  She added that what happened under the parliament's dome is not far from the nature of the ongoing preparations to organize the elections on December 24 next.

 Member of Parliament, Hana Boudeeb, considered that the vote took place legally and correctly, and that the government will turn into a caretaker government until the next elections.  Representative Abu al-Qasim Qazit also considered that the withdrawal of confidence from the government was necessary, but the implementation mechanism was wrong, and would aggravate the situation further.

 Yesterday, the Libyan House of Representatives voted to withdraw confidence from the Dabaiba government by a majority of 89 deputies.  The council's spokesman, Abdullah Blihaq, confirmed that the government will continue to conduct business until December 24.  To withdraw confidence from the government requires the approval of at least 87 deputies.

 Observers believe that there are sharp differences beyond the issue of government performance, related to Dabaiba's positions on the elections, militias and foreign fighters, and the relationship with the regions of Cyrenaica and Fezzan and with the leadership of the National Army.

 (A)

ANHA