​​​​​​​Russia escalates, Turkey gathers its mercenaries, America watches.. it it preparing for battle or settlement?

 On Friday evening, Russian warplanes targeted Jabal al-Sheikh Barakat in the Darat Azza district, in the western countryside of Aleppo, on the Mount Leylon range in the Şirawa district, where the largest military bases of the Turkish occupation are located in the area, with six air strikes.

 According to the sources, the targeting coincided with a meeting between the leaders of the mercenaries of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, which is internationally classified on the terrorist list), and the mercenaries of the Turkish occupation at the center of cell communication towers and the Turkish internet.

 Practical translation of the Putin-Assad meeting

 Political analyst Sarkis Abu Zayd pointed out that "the Russian bombing came as a practical translation of the summit that took place between Assad and Putin, and Damascus' support was emphasized by Russia with all possibilities, especially since Russia considered any military presence in Syria outside the government's approval as an illegitimate presence."

 He added, "Through these raids, Russia seeks to resolve the battles in this region, in order to confirm its point of view and embarrass Turkey and America in this regard. These raids are a practical translation of the public Russian position that it announced in the past days."

This escalation comes after Bashar al-Assad's recent visit to Russia and his meeting with Vladimir Putin, who, according to a Kremlin statement, said that the Damascus government forces control more than 90 percent of the country's territory, but attacked the presence of "illegal" foreign forces.

 Turkey occupies more than 10 percent of the area of ​​Syria, while the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria administers about a third of the country, all of which are areas that are not under the authority of the Damascus government.

 After the meeting between Assad and Putin, Al-Arab newspaper said: "After the forces of the Damascus government, with direct support from Russia, succeeded in regaining control of Daraa in the south of the country, Putin has no choice but to press for the removal of foreign forces, especially Turkey, which seeks to consolidate  its occupation of northern Syria and making it a fait accompli.

 According to the newspaper, Russia “does not see the American presence in northern and eastern Syria with the same degree of strategic danger as Turkey, because Turkey is planning a permanent survival, justified by Erdogan’s strategy aimed at restoring the areas of control of the Ottoman Empire in the long term, and that the stationing of its forces in Syria is nothing but  One component of that strategy.

 Will there be a military operation in Idlib?

 Simultaneously, there is increasing talk of a large-scale military operation that Damascus and Russia are preparing, aimed at controlling the Jabal al-Zawiya area in the southern countryside of Idlib.

 On September 16, Al-Watan newspaper, affiliated with Damascus, said: "The pace of field heating in the north continued, amid frequent reports about the completion of the Syrian army's preparations to launch a possible military operation in the southern countryside of Idlib and the western countryside of Hama, to expel the terrorists supported by the Turkish regime, in the event that its military leadership took action.  The decision to war to restore the occupied region, in parallel with meetings between the US President's envoy and the Middle East official in the National Security Council, Brett McGurk, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Fryshnin, and Presidential Envoy Alexander Lavrentiev.

 The newspaper added: “At a time when the Turkish regime has pushed large numbers of its militias, which it finances, to the fronts of the southern countryside of Idlib and the western countryside of Hama, south of the M4 road, these terrorists fear that they will be plunged into an unequal battle with the Syrian army with Russian air support, or that  They are forced to leave to the north of the international highway, in preparation for its opening to traffic and transit with Russian-American understandings, the outlines of which will be drawn up by the scheduled meeting between the envoys of Presidents Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden in Geneva.

In this context, Abu Zeid said: "Russia and Syria are trying to resolve the battle in the Idlib region, so that the terrorist organizations present in this region cannot gather their forces and move on this issue, especially since there are contacts and negotiations that may lead to a close settlement, so everyone will try improves its conditions before the negotiating table, and there are Russian-Syrian efforts to resolve the battle in this region, so that there is no serious or actual role in the upcoming settlement by terrorist organizations.

 A Russian message to Erdogan and an improvement in negotiating terms

 Two Turkish officials said on Friday that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will visit Russia later this month to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the situation in northwest Syria.

A senior Turkish official, who asked not to be named, spoke about the talks to be held in the Russian resort of Sochi, saying: "The main point on the agenda is Syria, specifically Idlib," noting that "the conditions stipulated in the Idlib agreement have not been fully implemented."

 This escalation comes, despite the fact that a ceasefire agreement has been in force since March 5, 2020, but the mutual bombing did not stop.

 Turkey had reached this agreement after talks with Russia in Moscow, and it came against the backdrop of Damascus' escalation of its military operations, storming and taking control of large parts of southern Idlib.

 Abu Zeid believes that "this escalation comes as a message to Erdogan in particular, who will pay a visit to Russia. Because Russia wants to impose its conditions and allow for a fait accompli on the ground that is not negotiable with Erdogan, and it sends these messages to Erdogan that these issues are not subject to bargaining or settlement."  And she demands that he implement the previous agreements that took place between Russia and Turkey. Therefore, she wants to maintain good relations with Turkey, but under Russian conditions."

 On the possibility of launching an operation on Idlib, Abu Zaid said: "This is related to the balance of power and the American and Turkish position, because Russia wants to resolve the battle in Idlib without there being an escalation or direct friction with Turkey or with the United States of America. Moreover, the circumstances of this campaign are related to communications.  And the moves that are taking place with Turkey and the United States of America.”

 After taking control of southern Syria, Damascus and Russia aspire to restore transit traffic from Turkey to Jordan and the Arabian Gulf, via the international road coming from northwest Syria, which requires controlling all of Idlib.

In this context, Damascus, backed by Russia, will be facing obstacles to restore economic movement, including exports, imports and transit movement from Turkey to Jordan, through Syrian territory, to the Gulf states and Egypt.

 The first obstacle is controlling the longest distance from the international road, which lies between the city of Morek in the northern countryside of Hama, and the Al-Rashideen area, which is one of the western suburbs of Aleppo, where Damascus now uses the secondary road, which became known as Khanasser Road.  However, this narrow road, which is considered an agricultural road, cannot be relied upon to restore momentum to the commercial movement.

 The second obstacle will be activating the commercial movement between the areas of the northern countryside of Aleppo (on the Turkish border), which are under the control of mercenaries, and the city of Aleppo.  Also, the Abu al-Zandin crossing, located south of the city of al-Bab, is ideal if it is activated for commercial traffic, as it is located on a main road linking the city of al-Bab to the city of Aleppo.

 Milestones of an upcoming settlement, Russia and Turkey are preparing for it

 The end of the Daraa file, the Russian escalation in Idlib and the western countryside of Aleppo, al-Assad’s visit to Russia and the US-Russian meeting in Geneva, the results of which were not announced, and the previous movement presided over by the Jordanian king, are all developments that indicate a new stage of the Syrian crisis.

Sarkis Abu Zeid said about this: "The file of the south is on the way to a solution, but it has not been finalized. Therefore, there are Russian-Syrian efforts to end all these files, in preparation and in preparation for the upcoming settlement, the parameters of which are beginning to appear. Therefore, there are contacts, perhaps outside the media, that are taking place.  Between Russia, the United States and Turkey, to resolve the Syrian file in all its dimensions and according to the conditions that Russia wants to achieve.

 He continued, "Therefore, it seeks, without provocation, and without being involved in direct military action with Turkey and the United States of America, to resolve the situation on the ground in the interest of Damascus, until negotiations and settlement come according to its vision of a solution."

 Preparations for the next stage were not limited to Russia only, but also to Turkey.  On Thursday, it announced five mercenary groups deployed in the areas occupied by Turkey;  Its merger under a new military bloc called the "Syrian Liberation Front".  In addition to the announcement of the "Azm Operations Room" before that.

 The announcement came a day after a surprise visit by Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, for the first time, to the occupied areas in northern Syria.  Specifically, the Azaz region, gathered with the leaders of mercenary groups, according to local sources.

 Observers interpreted the formation of the body called the "Syrian Liberation Front" as "a proactive step in the process that Turkey seeks to merge the northern Syrian groups with Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, and to form a unified military body in all areas occupied by Turkey."

Conditional and deliberate US withdrawal

 Abu Zeid pointed out that "all the moves that are taking place now in Syria are related to what is being said about Russian-American understandings. There are contacts, meetings and understandings that are agreed upon between Russia and the United States, but they have not yet appeared in public. Because there is an American desire to leave Syria, but it wants to arrange a set of situations, interests and obligations, before withdrawing permanently, because the American withdrawal from field work is a consistent position in the new American policy, which does not want to get involved in small or big wars in areas it considers nonessential to it.  The Chinese file, and to withdraw from all other fields in which it considers that there is no point in its presence.

 According to Abu Zeid, "It adopts a policy of constructive chaos and a policy of provoking problems and turmoil between the existing parties, without having a direct intervention in this matter. Therefore, I think that there are contacts at the highest levels between Russia and America, and perhaps Russia will guarantee some urgent American interests, or  some American considerations on the ground, in order for these understandings to succeed and to end these matters.”

 He believed that "everyone is waiting, because no one knows seriously and definitively how these understandings will be, and who will pay the price. Because always when there is an understanding between the top powers, the price must be paid by the little ones, who bet on the Russian-American contradiction. Perhaps they will be the ones who are affected, so  The region as a whole is awaiting the results of these understandings, on which it can build its positions and status, and the results of these understandings will probably affect the balance of power in the region as a whole."

 Everyone is trying to improve their conditions on the ground before settling

 The closure of the Daraa file came in conjunction with the US approval of the passage of Egyptian gas and Jordanian electricity to Lebanon through the administrative borders of Daraa.

 By signing this agreement, the Damascus government broke the Arab and international isolation imposed on it for the first time, as its energy minister appeared alongside the Jordanian and Egyptian energy ministers.

 During the intensification of the escalation by Damascus government forces and forces loyal to Iran, the plane of Jordanian King Abdullah II bin Al Hussein landed in the United States, where he met President Joe Biden, and from there made striking statements about the survival of Bashar al-Assad in power.

 And the American newspaper "Washington Post" revealed that King Abdullah II of Jordan offered US President Joe Biden, during his visit to the United States, to join a working group that seeks to agree on a road map for a solution in Syria.

 After that, the Jordanian king went to Moscow and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and they talked about normalizing the situation in Syria.

 Political analyst Sarkis Abu Zeid tried to extrapolate the course of the Syrian situation, saying: "It is clear that the Syrian situation is moving towards a political settlement that Russia is working on maturing with some opposition parties and with the relevant regional powers, especially Turkey and the United States of America, so in general things are moving toward a political settlement.  Its features have not yet appeared, but each team is trying to improve its conditions on the ground, so that it has a share and a role in the upcoming settlement.”

 Concluding his speech, he said: "When the parameters of the American-Russian understandings become clear, the move will take place to the next next stage, which is creating a favorable regional climate, and then the maturation of the internal settlement between the conflicting parties, in order to draw the features of the next stage in Syria and the region."

 (A)

 ANHA