Russian accuses Turkey of violating Sochi Agreement in Ain Issa ... reading in causes, repercussions

The Russian Center for Reconciliation in Syria linked with the Russian Defense Ministry expressed its concern and annoyance over the Turkish occupation's military reinforcements in the vicinity of Ain Issa in northeast Syria.

The deputy director of the Russian Center, Major General Alexander Karpovi, said on March 16: “The Russian side is very disturbed over the Turkish forces movements in Ain Issa, Raqqa governorate. These actions violate the memorandum of understanding and undermine the efforts of the two parties in resolving the Syrian conflict.

This is the first time that Russia accuses Turkey of violating the Sochi Agreement, signed on October 22, 2019.

The 10-article agreement, includes the withdrawal of the Syrian Democratic Forces to beyond the Syrian-Turkish border, 30 km away and a ceasefire, in addition to joint Turkish-Russian patrols at a depth of 10 km in the border areas with Turkey and the deployment of the Syrian government on the border.

On October 29, Russian Defense Minister, Sergey Shoigu made a statement in which he indicated that the SDF had completed withdrawing out of the borders, in accordance with the Sochi Agreement.

The recent Russian accusation against Turkey raised many questions about the possibility of a change in the nature of the understandings existing on the Syrian territories, the reasons and repercussions.

'Media exploitation and consumption'

Regarding this, journalist and political analyst Malik Al-Hafez said: “The Russians’ statement is for media consumption; it is intended to benefit more from the idea of ​​disturbing the situation in Syria, to use this as an appropriate excuse to postpone the presidential elections in Syria for 6 months to a year. Lately, we can say that Russia is counting on postponing the elections and it can put pressure on Damascus. "

He added, "As for disputes with Turkey, or even just implementing previous agreements on the region, this is out of the question, due to the arrival of the new American administration, as the terrorist groups card in the northwest, has become more useful than ever before by both parties, and they may converge more during the days ahead. "

Al-Hafiz believed that it is not Russia's intention to press Turkey now, but rather seeks to enter into political negotiation tracks with the United States - they remain attempts - despite all the difficulties that currently exist with Washington, especially after the continuing deterioration of the economic situation in Syria and the freezing of any possibility to open the file for reconstruction.  

He explained that Russia now realizes that the presidential election file is a political pressure card to invest in, so the possibilities of delay are big, but accusing Turkey of violating the agreement, does not mean escalation with the latter, as much as it is in the interest of the Russian vision in deteriorating the security conditions throughout the country, which may extend to large areas of Syria.

'No political importance'

For his part, Kurdish political analyst, Jiwan Yousif said, "These movements were accompanied by Syrian regime and Russian security reinforcements in Ain Issa. Therefore, I think it has no great significance or influence on the existing alliance between Turkey and Russia, and it does not deviate from being a filling of the void after the last Sochi meeting."  

He added, "It is expected that a rift will occur in the Russian-Turkish relationship, but conditions have not ripped yet, and their relationship is still strong to a large extent."

Youssef pointed out that Russia had previously talked about Turkey's failure to abide by its pledges, and we remember that Russia's bombing of HTS (Tahrir al-Sham) months ago came in the same context.

What is the relationship of this accusation with the Russian moves in the Gulf?

Regarding linking this accusation to the recent Russian moves in the Gulf, Malik Al-Hafez said: “Even when the Russians visited some Gulf countries, they also carried several meanings and messages, including the election file and the floating of the Damascus government on the Arab level, politically and economically, and even working to change the mechanism. Sanctions and the intervention of the Gulf states to solve this in order to supplement and restore the infrastructure sectors. "

Al-Hafez does not believe that there is any Gulf incitement for Russia against Turkey, as there is a rapprochement that may warm up between the Gulf and Turkey, in addition to the fact that Russia's interests and relations with both the Gulf states and Turkey do not conflict. Likewise, Russia does not want to pressure Turkey, as there are basic issues that they should complete the work on resolving, for in addition to the issue of terrorism, there are international roads, opening crossings, enhancing trade activity, and maintaining stability and security throughout the north, as part of a Russian strategy that proves to the United States that expanding Moscow's influence in Syria has not It is considered to make it a dependent or secondary party in the light of the United States' presence in Syria, regardless of the White House administrations.

In this context, Juan Youssef said: "Lavrov's meeting with Saudi Arabia and the Emirates and the recent Russian moves in general concerns more than one aspect of them related to oil prices after Saudi Arabia reduced its production in February individually, and the second is a Russian attempt to exploit the coolness of the US-Saudi relationship after the report issued by America Concerning the killing of Khashoggi, it is natural that attention should be paid to the Gulf, as Saudi Arabia leads the Gulf Cooperation Council.

He added, "Russia is a country with influence in the Middle East and it is one of the five permanent members, and it is natural that it fills the vacuums left by America or any other country, and in Lebanon it received Hezbollah, and this is against the American and European will, which considers Hezbollah a terrorist but does so." Because it considers Iran a strategic ally to it, and that supporting Hezbollah means that it has an influence in the Lebanon file, which is considered a continuation of the Syrian beaches that Russia seeks to control.

It is noteworthy that, after the Russian statements, the Turkish occupation army and its mercenaries launched violent attacks on Ain Issa on 16 and 17 March, and bombed the district and its villages intensively, amid Russian silence.

(A)

ANHA