Back to start .. ISIS is lot meaner, aggressive, expert warns of new wave

Despite the geographical elimination of the alleged "Caliphate" of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, the organization's activity indicates that it has not been completely eliminated, as the mercenaries re-grouping as gangs in separate areas in Syria and Iraq.

ISIS in Iraq and Syria

After ISIS took control of large swathes of Iraq and Syria and borders, its spokesman, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani who was (killed on August 30, 2016 in battles with the Syrian Democratic Forces in the vicinity of Afrin), in a video recording on June 29, 2014, announced that ISIS established the so-called "Islamic State" in both Iraq and Syria.

He also announced the new name of the ISIS organization, "Islamic State" instead of "the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant" and pledged allegiance to a leader - after its leader killing on October 27, 2019 - Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, "Caliph of Muslims", and declared Al-Raqqa, the capital of its alleged caliphate.

However, the roots of "ISIS" dates back to 11 years, in 2003, when America intervened in Iraq, and over the following successive years, ISIS worked to consolidate its influence in Iraq, exploiting the clan environment, not to mention the civil war and sectarian strife environment in the war-torn Iraq.

From Iraq, ISIS control extended to Syria, during the heat of its crisis that began in March 2011, later, the heinous organization controls more than 100,000 square kilometers from Iraq and Syria, with population of 7 million people in the two countries.

But the defeat suffered in the spring of 2019, at the hands of the Syrian Democratic Forces, (SDF) with the support of the International Coalition in its last strongholds in Syria (Al-Baghouz), was severe, and ISIS did not cease to realize its impact until it re-grouped in separate places in Syria and Iraq called it, "Death Triangles".

The organization changed the direct confrontations method for wide control over the territories, to guerrilla warfare, after losing large territories to the Iraqi forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces in NE Syria.

Concentration after geographical loss ...

ISIS mercenaries were stationed in security-fragile areas of the two countries; despite the Iraqi authorities' declaration of victory over ISIS in 2017, it remained active in the "Triangle of Death", which is located in a strategic area linking three governorates, especially northeast of Diyala, southwestern Kirkuk and eastern Salah al-Din, as it is a mountainous, semi-desert terrain, provided the ISIS, the agility to avoid the tight security control that hinders their movements.

In Syria, ISIS stationed once again, after its last stronghold collapse in Al-Baghouz, as small groups in the Syrian Badia on the borders with Iraq and Jordan, across the eastern regions of As-Suwayda, Homs, and the Damascus countryside, all the way to the south and east of the oil-and-gas rich Deir ez-Zor. And it found it an important haven due to its relatively large area (about 60,000 square kilometers), with small number of communities there, it was easier for ISIS mercenaries to carry attacks easily. In return, the flat nature of the region was advantage for more air force effectiveness. This region witnessed periodically clashes between ISIS mercenaries and the Syrian government forces supported by the Russian air force.

Funding and material

According to Monte Carlo, weapons expert Caliber Obscura believes that ISIS “today buys a few equipment from abroad, except for advanced equipment,” and the mercenaries depend on the war spoils left, as well as the black market.” If they have the opportunity, they will finance operations and supply the elements with money and equipment once again.

According to the Wall Street Journal, ISIS owns a group of companies and assets worth hundreds of millions of dollars throughout the Middle East and Central Asia, while the US Treasury Department estimated the organization’s financial reserves at about $ 300 million, while the United Nations estimated its asset least $ 100 million.

Al-Baghdadi

ISIS had the biggest blow when al-Baghdadi was killed on October 27, 2019, through a US military operation in Idlib (5 km from the Turkish border) in coordination with the Syrian Democratic Forces.

ISIS ... ideology, organization, state

In the context, the Egyptian researcher on terrorist groups, Sameh Eid, says that ISIS has 3 levels, which are: “ISIS the state, ISIS, and the ideological ISIS.” Its name is the first capitals of (the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant). "

Eid added, "ISIS, of course, is still t h ere, but split over several areas, including the Sinai Province in Libya, and Africa ISIS and linked lone wolves in separate regions of the world."

Priorities

The Egyptian expert pointed out that "the organization has been very much affected by the successive strikes, killing the first and second-class military leaders loyal to al-Baghdadi, but there are other military leaders, fighting 26 countries, using weapons they received during their control of the Iraqi and Syrian army. "

The ISIS post-defeat priorities are lined up in that “the new ISIS strategy will not adopt the state concept in the short term,” according to Egyptian expert Sameh Eid, who attributed this to that “it was a failed concept, as Al-Zawahiri told them in light of the absence of a state and air defense,” and he continues that “they will follow the guerrilla warfare that is fiercer. "

Goals and strategies

Sameh Eid did not rule out the disintegration of the organization" but stressed that "the ideology remains", he labeled it with "the ideology of murder, extremism, terrorism, and the names of jihad, targeting America and the political regimes in the East." Regardless of the name, the names differ from al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and ISIS, and the ideology that seeks to establish an Islamic caliphate remains.

(A)

ANHA