Idlib ... Turkish mobilization, researcher warns of its occupational intentions, Millî Charter

Areas in Idlib city and its suburbs are witnessing an escalation between the Damascus government forces and the mercenaries of the Turkish occupation in the axes of Jabal al-Zawiya, Kansafra, Benin, Sefuhn and Beyloun, and for its part, the Russian air forces are launching raids targeting the mercenaries.

Turkey occupied this area in agreement with Russia and Iran after the three parties reached in May 2017 in Astana meetings an agreement to form observation points by the three parties to monitor the field situation, and on this basis, Turkey occupied 12 Syrian regions under the pretext of establishing observation points.

Based on Astana agreements, the Damascus government forces, with Russian and Iranian support, began to follow a policy of gradual annexation of the areas under the control of Turkish mercenaries, 90% of which are under the control of Hayet Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhet al-Nusra and classified on the list of international terrorism) and the rest under other mercenaries.

Turkey issued a warning to prevent and stop the advance of the Damascus government forces, but it remained silent until a number of its observation points have become under Damascus control, and when Turkish soldiers killed in the Damascus government forces' bombardment, battles broke out between the two parties.

Agreement and terms

On March 5, 2020, the Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan reached a ceasefire agreement.

Among the most prominent terms of the agreement was Turkey's withdrawal of the so-called observation points besieged by the Damascus government forces, the removal of all heavy machineries from Idlib, and the disbanding of terrorist groups, headed by Hayet Tarhir al-Sham).

Evacuation of five points

In mid-October of this year, the Turkish occupation began evacuating the first of those bases, as it withdrew its equipment from the "Morek" base in Hama northern countryside towards "Qawqfin" town in south Idlib, and then respectively evacuated the two bases of "Sher Maghar" and "Maar Hatat" on the M5 international road north of "Khan Sheikhoun" city.

The evacuation operations continued to include the military point in al-Sheikh Aqil village near "Qubtan al-Jabal" town west of Aleppo, and separate points surrounding "Saraqeb" city east of Idlib.

New points in Jabal al-Zawiya

On the other hand, five points were established for the Turkish occupation in Idlib which included Deir Sunbul village south of Idlib, and al-Bara town within Jabal al-Zawiya in Idlib southern countryside, overlooking the city of Maarat al-Numan and its eastern countryside south of Idlib, Belyoun village and al-Marqeb hill, and Bedran hill in the southern countryside of Idlib. Thus the number of Turkish points in the De-escalation zone increases to 73 points.

The Turkish occupation points are concentrated in Jabal al-Zawiya, where more than 20 points have been monitored, the most prominent of which is the one at the foot of Jabal "al-Nabi Ayyub", the highest peak in Idlib countryside, and discloses a large area of ​​Jabal al-Zawiya and Sahl al-Ghab west of Hama, and in "Shannan and "Sarjah" towns, while the rest of the points are divided into "Ahsam, Belyoun, Deir Sunbul, Ferkia, Tel Maarata, Quqfin, Taraan, Marzaf and Nahla."

In the recent period, the Turkish occupation established two additional points, the first is located between the towns of al-Bara and Deir Sunbul, overlooking the cities of Maarat al-Numan and Kafr Nubl which are under the control of the Damascus government forces, and the second is in al-Ruwaiha town close to the M5 highway, where the Russian forces took control, while the Turkish occupation army is being deployed at several points near the M4 international road, south of Idlib.

Reinforcements despite agreement

The Turkish occupation continues to reinforce its military positions in the southern countryside of Idlib governorate, northwestern Syria about 9 months after the signing of the ceasefire agreement on the region between Ankara and Moscow on the fifth of last March.

The pace of Turkish military reinforcements in Idlib, specifically in Jabal al-Zawiya in its southern countryside has escalated over the past two months, as Ankara has begun to form a solid defensive wall surrounding the mountain, directly monitoring the points of deployment of the Damascus government forces, and behind it the pro-Russian and Iranian groups.

In violation of the agreement terms, the Turkish occupation has brought about 7,560 military vehicles to the Syrian territory, in addition to thousands of soldiers since the ceasefire operation on March 5.

The number of trucks and military vehicles that reached the De-escalation zone has increased during the period from February 2, 2020 until now to more than 10,895 trucks and military vehicles that entered the Syrian territories.

Why Jabal al-Zawiya?

The importance of Jabal al-Zawiya for the Turkish occupation is represented by its strategic location, as it is the link between Idlib southern and Hama northwestern countryside, and it monitors large areas in all directions, in addition to its supervision on the two international roads Aleppo - Lattakia M4 and Aleppo - Damascus M5.

The military situation of the Turkish occupation's mercenaries in this axis differs from the rest of the regions due to the ruggedness of Jabal al-Zawiya and its environs, and the mercenaries' ability to arrange deterrence operations due to the narrow combat distance and fortification of the area, and therefore it is important for Turkey and its mercenaries as a defensive line from the rest of Idlib.

The Damascus government forces aim to open the battles in the axes south of Idlib to control the area extending in Jabal al-Zawiya to the Aleppo-Lattakia M4 road, so that the Turkish occupation increases its points and support for the mercenaries to hold out in this axis in order to obtain a strong position in any later negotiations with Russia.

Turkey has not abided by any of the pledges

In this context, the Syrian writer and researcher Ahmed al-Derzi says: "It is clear that Turkey has not committed any of the pledges and agreements with Russia except to serve its general strategy, as it facilitated the fall of Homs and its northern countryside, and the areas of Damascus countryside, especially al-Ghouta."

Al-Derzi pointed out that Turkey, after being certain that it was unable to topple the Damascus government due to the presence of Russian and Iranian support, has moved to the alternative plan that achieves the Millî Pact, brings about demographic change in north and east Syria by occupying it, and settles the residents of Homs and al-Ghouta who refused reconciliation with Damascus there."

He stressed that the situation is now different, "and Turkey will not give up the areas it occupied, which makes it a key player in any upcoming political settlement, and thus it stresses the presence of Turkish military forces in Idlib with heavy weapons in order to preserve its role in shaping the future of the Syrian state."

Russian silence is related to Moscow's conflict with Washington

In addition, the Syrian writer and researcher said that the Russian silence towards Ankara's plans stems from multiple and different motives, all determined by the nature of the conflict that Moscow is waging with Washington and the West in general, at a time when NATO forces actually reached the Russian borders mediated by color revolutions, considering that "The most important element in NATO's success in besieging Russia is its dependence on Turkey which has a set of pressure cards on Moscow."

He added: "The possibility of Moscow reaching the Mediterranean via the sea lanes, or its competition in Central Asia, most of its countries belong to the Turkish nationalism, or inside Russia due to the presence of Turkish Muslim minorities that view the Turkish president as the Sultan or the successor to past glory, pushes Moscow to continue with the attempts to remove Turkey from NATO and contain it, and these attempts have a high price inside Syria."

Al-Derzi indicated that the situation in Idlib also awaits the new U.S. administration led by Biden, and the reflection of its positions on Russia, Turkey and Syria.

At the end of his speech, al-Derzi promised that the American administration is expected to continue to support the "Islamists" to serve its interests, especially since the American Democrats were the ones who launched the so-called "Brotherhood" Arab Spring revolutions.

D.H

ANHA