2026 Israeli Knesset elections; their implications for Israel- Middle East

The Israeli Knesset elections held on October 27, 2026, are viewed by some political factions as a significant milestone in the history of Israeli politics. They point to the shifts in the balance of power among political parties, as well as the questions raised regarding the future of the government, Israel’s security and military policies, and the broader regional repercussions.

The elections took place against a backdrop of mounting internal crises and the fallout from regional conflicts, alongside intensifying disagreements over the management of the Palestinian conflict, the confrontation with Iran, and security developments in Lebanon and Syria.

The results showed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was unable to maintain the parliamentary majority previously held by his coalition. At the same time, the opposition forces failed to secure an independent majority that would have allowed them to form a new government. This has plunged Israel into a phase of complex coalition negotiations, during which Arab parties and centrist forces have strengthened their leverage in the process of forming the next government. The significance of these elections extends beyond the internal Israeli landscape, given the potential implications that the identity of the next government may have for regional issues foremost among them Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, and Ira, as well as for relations with the United States and Arab nations.

This raises the most critical question: will a change in government lead to a fundamental shift in Israeli policy, or will it merely result in a change in the methods and tools used to manage these issues?

Election results and the balance of power within the Knesset

The results announced by the Central Elections Committee, following the completion of the vote count, and set to be officially declared today show that the Likud party, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, secured 27 seats. The "Yeshar" party, led by Gadi Eizenkot, won 21 seats, while the "Ma'an" (Together) alliance, led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, obtained 12 seats.

Additionally, the Joint List won 11 seats, while the Democrats and the United Arab List each secured eight seats.

In total, the bloc allied with Netanyahu holds 53 seats, compared to 48 seats for the "change" bloc, while the Arab lists hold 19 seats. To secure a parliamentary majority, any government requires 61 out of the 120 total seats.

These figures reveal a decline in Netanyahu’s ability to form a government by relying on his traditional allies; however, this does not necessarily mean his immediate departure from power. Furthermore, despite its progress, the opposition faces challenges stemming from the divergent positions of its constituent parts regarding security and religious issues, as well as the varying degrees of willingness among its parties to cooperate with Arab political lists.

Who will form the next Israeli government?

The political struggle revolves around three main directions: Netanyahu continuing to govern by rebuilding his coalition, forming a new government led by Gadi Eisenkot, or reaching a broader coalition agreement to avoid early elections.
Netanyahu has extensive experience in managing political coalitions, but the reduction of his alliance to 53 seats forces him to seek new partners or persuade deputies outside his coalition to join him.

As for Eizenkot, he faces the task of uniting the opposition forces and overcoming the differences among them, and perhaps gaining the support of the Arab parties directly or indirectly.

The Arab parties seem to play a pivotal role in these negotiations, as their nineteen seats can significantly alter the parliamentary calculations, despite objections from opposition Zionist parties to relying on them to form the government.

In light of the available data up to the time of preparing this report, it is not possible to determine the name of the next Prime Minister. The election results do not grant any coalition an independent majority, and the decision depends on coalition negotiations and the official mandate to form the government and if these efforts fail, the possibility of early elections remains.

The implications for the Palestinian issue

The Palestinian issue is one of the most affected files by the election results, due to the differing approaches of Israeli parties in managing the war, with a convergence among major political forces regarding the continuation of Israeli security considerations and the rejection of establishing a Palestinian state according to the currently proposed formulas.

The continuation of Netanyahu and his right-wing allies might mean maintaining the hardline policies toward the West Bank, settlement, and the future of the Gaza Strip, with ongoing disputes over the management of the sector and post-war arrangements.

As for the formation of a government led by Eizenkot, it may provide greater space to reorganize relations with the United States and European countries, and perhaps review some methods of managing the Palestinian file, but it does not necessarily mean a fundamental shift in the Israeli stance on the Palestinian state or withdrawal from the territories.

Accordingly, the potential change may be more evident in the management of the conflict and international pressures, rather than necessarily in the core Israeli political and security objectives.

The implications for Lebanon and Hezbollah

Lebanon represents one of the most significant arenas of security challenge for the upcoming Israeli government, as Israel considers Hezbollah's military capabilities and the military presence on the northern border to be among the most prominent strategic challenges it faces.

It is likely that Israeli pressure will continue to prevent the rebuilding of the party's military capabilities, amid ongoing disputes over the future of the Israeli military presence in the border areas and the necessary security arrangements to stop confrontations.

In the event that a new government led by Eizenkot comes to power, the management of the Lebanese file may change, particularly in terms of coordination with Washington and the search for diplomatic and security arrangements. However, this does not mean abandoning Israeli demands related to keeping military threats away from the borders.

Therefore, the future of stability in Lebanon will not only be linked to the identity of the Israeli Prime Minister but also to the course of international agreements and the positions of Lebanese and regional parties.

The implications for Syria

Syria occupies an important position in Israeli strategic calculations due to the Golan Heights, the northern border, and the connection of the Syrian arena to regional balances and Turkish and Iranian influence.

Israel is expected to continue prioritizing the prevention of military threats it perceives as directly threatening its security, monitoring the transfer of weapons and military capabilities to Hezbollah, as well as following political and security developments in southern Syria.

A new Israeli government may provide greater room for diplomatic and security understandings, but it is not expected that a change in leadership alone will end Israeli interventions or abandon security demands related to the borders and the Golan, according to previous statements from both parties during the campaign.

The importance of the elections for Syria lies in determining whether the next government will continue to primarily rely on military pressure or grant more space for negotiations and security arrangements.

The implications for Iran

The Iranian file remains one of the most contentious issues on which most of the main Israeli political forces converge. There is broad consensus on considering the Iranian nuclear program, missiles, and regional Iranian influence as strategic challenges to Israeli security.

Netanyahu may continue, if he remains in power, to adopt a policy of pressure, deterrence, and threats using military force in coordination with the United States.

As for a government led by Eizenkot, it might place greater importance on re-coordinating with Washington and allies, while continuing to focus on weakening Iranian military and nuclear capabilities.

From here, the potential government change may affect the tools and timing of confrontation, but it does not necessarily indicate a strategic shift in the Israeli stance toward Iran, according to observers and the statements of both sides during their election campaigns. Additionally, any escalation between the two sides will have direct repercussions on Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and the Gulf, and may threaten the entire regional stability.

The American and Arab stance on the election results

The United States is closely monitoring the results of the Israeli elections as a factor influencing the future of the strategic alliance between the two countries, and in managing the issues of Syria, Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. It is likely that Washington will seek a government capable of making stable decisions, avoiding the expansion of regional confrontations, and maintaining security and military coordination.

As for the Arab world, Egypt and Qatar will monitor the future of arrangements related to Gaza and mediation, while Saudi Arabia will follow the opportunities for normalization and the future of the Palestinian political path. Jordan will remain concerned with developments in the West Bank, Jerusalem, and the borders.

It is likely that the opportunities for improving Israeli-Arab relations will depend on the policies of the next government toward the Palestinians, its readiness to address Arab demands related to stability and political settlement, and the latest military developments in Iran.

Future scenarios and strategic assessment

Three main paths can be identified for the next phase: the first, forming a new government led by Eizenkot with the support of opposition forces, possibly benefiting from parliamentary Arab support.

The second, Netanyahu's success in rebuilding a right-wing coalition that ensures his continued stay in power.

And the third, the failure of negotiations and going to early elections, which prolongs the state of political instability.

According to Israeli observers, the biggest challenge facing Israel is not only determining the identity of the Prime Minister but also the ability of the next leadership to manage internal and external crises simultaneously, especially the disputes over mandatory conscription for Haredim, the future of the judiciary, the repercussions of wars, and relations with the United States.

ANHA