Panorama of Week: Tension increases in southern Syria, Russian-Turkish cut deal at expense of Armenians

Last week, Arab newspapers addressed the situation in southern Syria, in addition to the Karabakh agreement, and the Lebanese crisis.

Russian-Iranian conflict in Daraa

Al-Sharq Al-Awsat newspaper touched on the Syrian issue, and said: "Daraa governorate (southern Syria) witnessed a series of events following the security campaign of the regime forces, its affiliated militants and Iran, led by the elements of the Fourth Division, within the outskirts of Daraa al-Balad in the city of Daraa, within the framework of the Russian-Iranian conflict in the province. "

"Explosions were heard in separate areas of the city, coinciding with the sounds of shells launched by the regime forces on the areas of Daraa al-Balad, as part of the security campaign that it started on Sunday morning in the vicinity of Daraa, the first campaign of its kind since the Reconciliation Agreement with the opposition factions in 2018, under Russian auspices."

"The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights" (SOHR) reported that a group of people from the western region of Daraa had captured two officers and 10 members of the Fourth Division "in solidarity with Daraa, whose southern regions witnessed an attack by militias affiliated with the regime and Iran at four in the morning," it added.

A Russian-Turkish deal at the expense of the Armenians

Regarding the conflict in Karabakh, Al-Arab newspaper said: "Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan succeeded in persuading Russian President Vladimir Putin to abandon the Armenians during the last weeks of the Azerbaijani-Armenian confrontations, and to go between them as a broker later and sponsor an agreement that humiliates the Armenians, the supposed-to-be strategic allies of Moscow, which prompted Erdogan not to hide his sense of victory."

Under the auspices of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a ceasefire agreement in Nagorno Karabakh that devotes the military victories by Azeri forces in Karabakh following six weeks of bloody battles.

The agreement and the Russian previous silence over the ongoing unequal battles in the region predicts Turkish-Russian understandings that prioritize bilateral interests and coordination in other files, whether in Libya, Syria or in the Eastern Mediterranean, in addition to the S-400 missile system deal that the Russians represent breakthrough for NATO.

Observers questioned the limits of the Russian-Turkish consensus and its risks to Moscow's influence in its geographical surroundings, noting that Russia used Turkey's fears to consolidate its influence in Syria and Libya, but this opened the door to the growing hopes and plans of Erdogan that threaten Russia itself by stepping in its backyard in the Caucasus and Central Asia, where the historical concentration of the Turkish race, as well as being an important center for international energy.

Erdogan also went well in keeping the Iranians away from interfering to preserve the status quo in the disputed region between Armenia and Azerbaijan, leaving them in a difficult situation in light of the growing separatist demands of the Azeris in Iran.

There is no prospect of forming the Lebanese government

On the Lebanese issue, Al-Akhbar newspaper said: "Instead of carrying something new on its Lebanese tour, and activating the French initiative, it became clear that French delegate wanted to explore the possibility of imposing American sanctions for overcoming the obstacles of authorship, and the delegate came out with a conclusion confirming that betting on sanctions to meet Hariri's demands is a bet in change its position. "

It added, "Soon, optimism evaporated with the visit of the French President Emmanuel Macron's advisor for Near Eastern Affairs, Patrick Durrell, to Lebanon. Durrell, who seeks to activate the French initiative, clashed with a very complex political reality, capable of toppling any initiative, nevertheless, he touched on the eagerness of everyone who met them to initiate, without this concern being translated into any progress in the government file. "

Potential scenarios for the United States

Regarding the US election results, An-Nahar newspaper said: "Since the announcement of Joe Biden's victory on Saturday, Donald Trump has refused to acknowledge his defeat, supported by a number of Republican members of Congress. "

It has filed lawsuits in at least five major states on the grounds of fraud or irregularities in the electoral process, and a vote recount will take place in Georgia - where the results are so close - and it is not slave that it will also take place in Wisconsin, all of which have hardly any opportunity to change the polling result.

How long can this challenge of results last? Is it still possible to question Joe Biden's victory?

Each state has a deadline by which election officials must have validated the results and validated the number of votes each candidate got: Georgia has until November 20, Pennsylvania by 23, and Arizona through 30.

"I don't think we will have to wait for every state to formally certify its results," says John Fortier, an election specialist at the Bay Partisan Police Center which seeks to be a bridge between Democrats and Republicans.

He adds, "I think that at some point, perhaps in the next few days, as the counting process progresses and some cases may be rejected, we will see that the differences are too large to be reversed through legal procedures ... I think this is how the problem will be solved."

In fact, experts say December 14 is the deadline. Then the major voters in each state must meet to officially vote for one or the other, a vote dictated in principle by the majority of the popular vote in their state.

Barry Borden says: "Donald Trump will likely never accept defeat ... He still continues to challenge the 2016 election results despite winning them, so it is likely that he will continue to protest the rest of his life."

This expert says that this will not preclude the inauguration of Joe Biden on January 20, 2021, but that it would fuel suspicions in the Republican camp and could "delegitimize" Joe Biden's victory ... This may be the only goal of the Donald Trump campaign team ".

John Fortier notes that he is "absolutely sure that there will be a peaceful transition" of power, even if it is not the "most friendly" or "the smoothest".

"It would be better if (Trump) admitted defeat, but if the transfer is delayed, it will not be the end of the world," he adds.

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ANHA