Imminent military confrontation in Syria's Idlib

Syria's Idlib is witnessing large military build-up, mostly on the Turkish side with arriving more than 5,865 Turkish trucks and military vehicles to the region from February 2 till now.

The SOHR  observed on the third of this month arrival of more military reinforcements of the Syrian government and Iranian forces to the fronts of Idlib, and deployed on several axes, including: Kafr Nubil- Hazarin-Al-Fiteira and other axes in Jabal al-Zawiya in Idlib's southern countryside.

The Russian reconnaissance drones overflew heavily in the skies of the so-called "de-escalation" area from Jabal al-Zawiya through the southern countryside of Idlib to the western countryside of Aleppo.

At the same time, the Observatory learned a few days ago from reliable sources that Turkish forces demanded that mercenary groups loyal to them to be on alert, coinciding with the continued arrival of military reinforcements of the Syrian government forces to the axes of Jabal al-Zawiya and the eastern countryside of Idlib.

Turkey has so far failed to conduct joint military patrols with the Russian side as defined in Putin-Erdogan ceasefire agreement in Moscow on March 5.

Ankara failed to persuade the mercenaries of HTS (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, which is on the list of international terrorism) not to obstruct patrols, after the first Turkish-Russian patrol on 15 March was blocked and forced to shorten its course, which was subsequently repeated on the second and third sessions.

Ankara has also been unable to distance Jabhat al-Nusra from the so-called "moderate" groups in the region, which also falls under the terms of the agreements with Russia.

For further information about the course of events, Hawar News Agency interviewed the researcher in political science and international relations, Dr. Abir Al-Hayali.

"Russian-Turkish rope tightening"

"The sharp diplomatic work between the Russian and Turkish sides, will continue to dominate the development of the situation in Idlib, despite the military build-up, which can be described as a tightening of the ropes between the two sides," Dr. al-Hayali began her speech.

"This does not mean that there is no deep disagreement between the two sides on the Syrian issue, but they have proved in the past, they can reach the last-minute understanding  to prevent a direct military clash. Perhaps the meeting of the two presidents in March is the best way to summarize  tides between them," she said. 

"A fragile agreement and a lack of confidence"

"In the event of a likely collision because of Erdogan's knowledge of his loss to this battle, it will be a limited strike that will bring Erdogan back to the point of diplomatic contact and back to the negotiating table," she said.

"The reason for this build-up is that Ankara is certain of the fragility of the latest agreement that is collapsible  at any moment. The Russian side also mistrusts  the Turkish side and is working to be fully prepared to put a hand on Idlib in the event of any military action," the researcher in political science and international relations said.

"Both sides believe that the agreement was superficial and a freeze on the situation and does not rise to be a real agreement," Dr. al-Hayali said.

A.J

ANHA