MIDDLE EAST EYE: Why Russia, Turkey and Iran can't reach a breakthrough on Syria?

NEWS DESK

Russian writer Alexei Khelbnikov points out in an article for the British MIDDLE EAST EYE site, that before the summit, three major events have had a major impact on the agenda.

First was the dysfunctional Russia-Turkey agreement on an Idlib buffer zone, reached in September, which has not improved matters in the Syrian province. Quite the opposite: Idlib has been taken over by the al-Qaeda-linked fighters of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), subjugating moderate opposition groups. This has undermined the deal, increasing the risk of friction between Moscow and Ankara.

Impeding the political process
Second was the US decision, announced in December, to withdraw its forces from Syria, adding another layer of complexity to the conflict and leaving Russia, Turkey and Iran uncertain about the fate of the Kurds and territories east of the Euphrates. Whether or how the US follows through on the withdrawal goal remains to be seen.

The third event was the inability of the three countries to agree on the composition of a constitutional committee, which is now seen as the major obstacle holding up the Syrian political process.

Idlib offensive

Idlib was never a top priority for Ankara, holding more risk of potential tensions with Russia and requiring additional military efforts to confront terrorists. This made it easy for Turkey to switch to its main priority – Kurdish issue and northeastern Kurdish-held areas. This goes hand-in-hand with another of Ankara's major goals: to resettle Syrian refugees (Turkey hosts more than 3.5 million Syrians) in their country's Turkey-controlled safe-zone. 

It remains unclear, however, what moves Turkey will make east of the Euphrates. US forces are still in place, and Washington has indicated it will not leave the Kurds without security and Iran unchecked. It is evident that all parties involved need to reach a deal on Kurdish-held areas, but how that deal will look is anyone's guess. This remains one of the most challenging tasks for all involved.

Heightened tensions
Although Ankara, Moscow and Tehran have treated US President Donald Trump's decision to pull out of Syria positively, they remain skeptical about how it will play out. This unpredictability affects many key issues in Syria, from the Kurdish question to the fate of territories east of Euphrates, to Iran's influence in the country. 

As for the constitutional committee and the political process in general, no breakthroughs emerged in Sochi.

Gulf influence
The writer said that both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates want to be able to keep both Iran and Turkey in check in Syria. Recent developments, including the reopening of the UAE's embassy in Damascus, the Syria-UAE business forum in Abu-Dhabi and the visit of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's chief security adviser to Riyadh late last year, have underscored the desire of Gulf powers to secure their interests and influence in Syria.

This could ultimately have a negative impact on the Syrian political process. The Gulf states and Turkey support different groups among the Syrian opposition, which may lead to deepening disagreements among the opposition and contribute to their inability to devise a united position.

The writer concluded, "At the same time, a question mark hangs over the US role in Syria and how it will implement its decision to pull out of the country. This will have a significant impact on the other major issues facing Syria, from Idlib, to the Kurds, to the future role of Tehran."

A.H

ANHA