Firas Qassas: De-escalation is Russian means targeting military factions

NEWS DESK

Hawar news agency held a dialogue with the Syrian opponent and politician and the head of the Modernity and Democracy Party of Syria Firas Kassas to talk about the latest political developments that are ongoing in Idlib city and its destiny among the agreements and the possible battles.

This comes as attention is directed towards Idlib which analysts expect it to be on the verge of a military operation by the Syrian regime to restore it from the mercenary gangs supported by Turkey or to reach, with the final, a solution that settle the situation of the area that is considered the largest bastion of the regime opponents.

The dialogue is as the following,

The Syrian regime and Russia are talking about launching a campaign against Idlib, why Russia and the regime are preparing to head towards this particular area in your view?

After the regime succeeded to defeat the armed Islamic factions which are characterized by extremism, atonement and hostility to the values ​​of democracy, freedom and dignity and which occupied the Syrian areas in March 2011 in Aleppo, al-Ghouta and Deraa, it has become normal that Idlib would have been the next station which Russia firstly and the regime secondly must have found a solution to its situation, especially that this governorate has turned into an area for gathering the rigorous militants who have entered into agreements for the delivery of their sites all over Syria which have been restored by the regime with the Russian and Iranian support. Not to mention that the population density in Idlib doubled and reached record levels which are two factors that make the governorate an area requirng a military and political model to deal with it. I tend to think that the Russians think of dealing with Idlib matter in different ways than they have followed in Daraa, al-Ghouta and Aleppo. Of course, all scenarios remain open and possible in this regard.

Idlib is one of the de-escalation zones and that was announced at Astana meeting, Russia is one of the guarantor countries, and today Russia is talking about a campaign in that area, to what this escalation suggests? Has Astana collapsed or is there something else?

In fact, what happened in Daraa at least made clear that the strategy of de-escalation zones was not but a masterful military means of Russia that aimed at defeating the military factions one after the other systematically and thoughtfully, and not the issue of guarantees given by some countries, especially Russia, Turkey, Iran and sometimes Jordan and the United States (as the case of Daraa), but temporary guarantees that could be trampled upon when there would be field and political conditions. It became clear that the Guarantor States were then only countries that agree and complicit on the Syrian situation in order to solve it according to their vision, interests and the potentials of each party and its papers in Syria.

In this sense, Astana was not destroyed, but its purpose and its actors’ bets have been clear.

Everyone knows that Idlib is controlled by the armed gangs headed by Hayet Tahrir al-Sham (formerly al-Nusra), and it is a gang classified within the terrorist groups worldwide and supported by Turkey. Where are the Turkish-Russian relations going in within this escalation?

I rule out that Erdogan would take the risk of moving afoot enraging Putin so I tend to believe that the Turks and the Russians have reached understandings or semi-understandings about Idlib since time. Of course the fate of al-Nusra and the other factions that occupy the city, and whether some leaks talked about the re-structure of the extremist factions by giving them a new military and political impression and taking the foreign rigorous militants away from them and from Syria or things went in another direction, I completely set aside that both Turkey and Russia would contradict each other regarding this issue.

In your opinion, what is Idlib’s fate, would it witness a fierce battle, or its fate would be like Aleppo and the other de-escalation zones such as al-Ghouta al-Sharqiya and the South?

In my opinion, Idlib would be the most difficult stage that the influential and dominant countries in Syria would face these days if the military scenario would be the same. The situation of the fighters and many of them in Idlib as the last battle and the presence of millions of civilians and displaced people will make the outcome there. I think that all the scenarios are possible, even the crazy. This is what has been resulted from the reactions of the recent Syrian incident and its aftermath.

In case Idlib’s battle occurred, there are other areas occupied by Turkey such as Tripoli, Azaz, Afrin, al-Bab and other areas. What would happen to these areas amid the escalation in north-west of Syria?

Until now, the standards that the occupied territories by Turkey succumbed to seem to be afar from those that control Idlib and its fate. I expect that these areas would be used as Turkish means of pressure to achieve Turkish interests in the time of reaching a final formula for the political solution in Syria.

It is not clear to whom domination Idlib would be subjected to whether Turkish or Russian. Have the two parties reached a clear agreement on the city or not? The answers would always be mixed with questions in the coming days and before the manner would become clear through the events that are expected.

Who will be the prey in this battle..?

Certainly, our civilian residents who are living in Idlib now and no one else will be the main prey. In the immediate sense, they will pay the bill from their life, safety and living conditions if this battle breaks out in the near future.

D.H

ANHA