trade war between United States, China... struggle for influence-dominance

Last week witnessed a trade war launched by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump against Europe, China, and many other countries. China responded by imposing tariffs on the U.S., causing instability in global markets amid the intensification of this war between the two largest economies in the world.

To understand the details of this war and the reasons that prompted the United States to raise tariffs, its implications for Washington and China's influence, and the outcomes of this war, ANHA's agency spoke with Dr. Sivan Saed, a professor of international relations at Shanxi University in the People's Republic of China.

Saed mentioned at the beginning of his talk that "in 2025, with Donald Trump's return to the White House for a second term, protectionist rhetoric returned to the forefront of American economic policy, and the atmosphere of the trade war that had begun during his first term was renewed."

Trump's measures did not go without reactions.

Saed pointed out that "the world has once again witnessed an escalation in trade tensions, the most prominent of which was the imposition of new tariffs on imports from China, Europe, and other countries, under the pretext of protecting the American economy and confronting what Trump described as the 'trade exploitation' that the United States is subjected to. As in the past, these measures did not go without reactions, as China and other parties responded with similar steps, leading to the exacerbation of the dispute and its extension into new areas, such as technology and energy."

Saed saw that "the United States, specifically the Trump administration, justified these policies based on its chronic trade deficit, especially with China, which continues to achieve a huge trade surplus at the expense of the American market."

He pointed out that Trump and his team believe this imbalance negatively affects American industries and leads to job losses in vital sectors. He noted that the old accusations against China remain present, including intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, and unfair trade practices. Trump's return was seen as an opportunity to continue his trade policies, after some measures were halted under the previous administration of President Joe Biden.

The strategic dimension is present in economic policies.

Politically, according to Saed, many see this return to escalation as an attempt by Trump to maintain his popular base, especially in the industrial states affected by globalization. Trump has long used a nationalist rhetoric, calling for "America First," and portraying the trade war as a national battle against foreign manipulation. With the increasing geopolitical tensions in East Asia and the deteriorating relations between Washington and Beijing, the strategic dimension has become present in economic policies, not just the financial or commercial aspect.

China is capable of responding.

Despite nearly a decade since the beginning of the first trade war, China remains capable of responding, as it has proven in previous years. According to Saed, "China has taken serious steps to enhance its self-sufficiency, particularly in the technological, energy, and raw materials sectors. It has also intensified its efforts to sign trade agreements with other countries to reduce dependence on the American market. In this context, the trade war has turned into a long-term positional war, with its strategic goal being to dismantle the mutual dependency between the two economic giants."

The customs tariff policy will lead to mixed results.

As for the level of American influence, Saed believes that "the continuation of tariff policies during a second Trump term will lead to mixed results. On one hand, Trump consolidates his power domestically and presents himself as the defender of American citizens' interests against 'external exploitation.' On the other hand, these policies weaken the United States' position as a reliable trading partner in the eyes of its allies, especially in the European Union and Japan, who have preferred stability and multilateral cooperation in recent years."

Economically, Saed confirmed that these policies were not without cost. Despite some immediate gains, such as the return of certain industries to the United States and an increase in local investment, the side effects include rising prices for the American consumer, disruptions in supply chains, and a decline in the competitiveness of some American products in global markets. Additionally, agricultural and industrial sectors that relied on exports were harmed, leading to increasing political pressure on the American administration.

China's position in this war?

On the other hand, Saed mentioned that China was not the clear winner in this war, pointing out that it faced internal economic pressures such as slowing growth, an aging population, and a decline in foreign investment. However, he noted that Beijing managed to maintain a degree of economic cohesion thanks to state support for the affected sectors and the expansion of its relations with the Global South countries. In fact, some Chinese companies benefited from the withdrawal of Western companies from the Chinese market to expand their share.

India, Vietnam, and Mexico benefited from the conflict.

He added that neutral countries and global economies between the two giants, China and America, such as India, Vietnam, and Mexico, have partially benefited from this conflict, as they attracted investments that were previously directed towards China. Some regional powers have also begun to play the role of mediator or third party balancing between the two blocs.

He noted that even with a future change in administration in Washington or Beijing, the trade war remains an expression of a broader conflict between two economic and political models. Trump is not only proposing a tariff policy but a nationalist project that seeks to redraw the rules of globalization to ensure American supremacy. As for China, it sees the confrontation as an opportunity to build an alternative economic system, more pluralistic and less subject to American influence.

A new chapter of global competition

Saed believes that the trade war in Trump's second term is not merely an extension of old policies, but a new chapter in the global competition between major powers. It has become an integral part of the new economic and political system, where economic interests intertwine with security and strategic considerations.

And while it is still undecided who will be the ultimate winner in this war, it is certain that the shape of the global economy will change, forcing other countries to reassess their calculations, whether in their trade relations or in their developmental strategies. In other words, the world will witness intense tensions in the near future as we see a qualitative change in the policies of countries, similar to the shift from a unipolar system to a multipolar system, according to a professor of international relations at Shanxi University in China.

T/S

ANHA