Syria between pain- hope.. Analysis of current situation; prospects for a solution - Elhami al-Maliji

Since the outbreak of events in Syria in 2011, the country has entered an unprecedented cycle of violence and divisions, which has deeply affected various aspects of life. The crisis began as a popular movement demanding reforms, but it quickly turned into a complex conflict with local, regional and international dimensions.

Amidst this chaos, the experience of the Autonomous Administration in North and East Syria emerged as a model that has proven its relative success in achieving security and economic stability, and strengthening social cohesion among the various components, despite the enormous challenges it faces. However, Syria still stands at a crossroads, where achieving comprehensive and consensual solutions remains an urgent necessity to rebuild a unified state that fulfills the aspirations of all Syrians.

The Current Situation in Syria

As the Syrian crisis has continued for more than a decade, new complexities have emerged that are added to the current scene, making it necessary to describe the situation in order to understand the current context and its effects. This description requires addressing the political, economic, and social aspects to understand the intertwined factors affecting Syria today.

On the political level

Syria has recently witnessed a dramatic shift represented by the control of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhet al-Nusra and classified on the terrorist lists) over power in the country after the collapse of the current regime. Former President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, which plunged the country into a state of political chaos and internal tensions.

Economically

Syria is experiencing an unprecedented economic collapse. The Syrian currency has lost its value dramatically, and inflation rates have risen to record levels. The infrastructure is destroyed, and basic services such as health and education are in a deplorable situation. The economic sanctions imposed are increasing the suffering of the people, while the state is unable to provide effective solutions.

Socially

The social crisis is one of the most prominent repercussions of the war. Millions of Syrians are displaced and refugees, and the social fabric is threatened by ethnic and sectarian divisions. Families have lost security and stability, and the dream of returning to their homeland has become out of reach for many.

Causes of the Crisis

To understand the roots of the Syrian crisis, it is necessary to delve into the internal and external factors that fueled a bloody conflict that lasted for a decade. These factors are complex, as the practices of the former regime created a combustible environment, while external interventions contributed to escalating the conflict and turning it into a multidimensional war.

Internally:

The absence of political and economic reforms before 2011, and the control of corruption over state institutions, led to an escalation of popular discontent. Security repression and ignoring the demands of the people contributed to the exacerbation of the situation, which made the protests turn into an armed conflict.

Externally:

The intervention of international and regional powers has further complicated the crisis. The interests of major powers in the region, along with support for armed and terrorist groups, have contributed to the escalation of the conflict and its transformation into a proxy war.

Solutions to Overcome the Crisis

With the complexity of the Syrian crisis and the intertwining of its political, economic and social factors, there seems to be an urgent need to develop comprehensive and effective solutions that contribute to overcoming the current situation. These solutions cannot be partial or temporary, but must be based on a strategic vision that addresses the deep roots of the crisis and achieves a balance between the needs of the people and the interests of the various parties.

Politically

The crisis cannot be overcome without resuming a comprehensive national dialogue that includes all parties. The political system must be restructured to be more inclusive and representative of all components of the Syrian people. Reducing external interference and supporting local solutions will be key to any settlement.

Economically

Launching an international program to rebuild Syria is a necessary step. Gradually lifting economic sanctions in conjunction with progress on the political track will alleviate the suffering of the people. Encouraging local and international investment can rebuild the economy.

Socially

Promoting national reconciliation and the return of refugees and displaced persons to their cities and villages will restore the social fabric to normal. Psychological support and reintegration programs are essential to overcome the repercussions of the war on individuals and society.

The Autonomous Administration Experience: Is it a Solution to the Crisis?

With the worsening of the Syrian crisis and the multiplicity of attempts at a solution, the experience of Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria has emerged as a different model that has sparked much discussion. This experience is based on local administration that seeks to achieve security and economic stability in the areas it controls. However, the question remains: Can this model be a comprehensive solution to the crisis if it is expanded to include the rest of the Syrian cities?

Positives of the Autonomous Administration Experience

The autonomous administration model in northeastern Syria has proven its relative success in providing stable local governance. Effective participation of the components of the region in managing its affairs, and achieving relative security and economic stability compared to the rest of the Syrian regions.

Challenges

The experience of the autonomous administration faces major challenges from several parties. The de facto government in Damascus sees it as a threat to the unity of Syria and accuses it of seeking to divide the country, while the factions loyal to Turkey oppose it on the grounds that it represents a threat to Turkey’s security and regional interests. In addition, the autonomous administration faces ongoing security threats from ISIS sleeper cells, which are trying to destabilize the areas it administers. These challenges combined put the experience of the autonomous administration in a difficult test to ensure its continuity and ability to provide a sustainable model of local governance.

Possibility of generalization

The experience of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria has provided a distinctive model in achieving security and economic stability and enhancing social cohesion among the various components of the region. However, generalizing this experience to the rest of the Syrian cities requires addressing fundamental challenges. This model must be adapted to take into account the local specificities of the various Syrian regions, and work to find mechanisms of consensus with the central government. Developing this experience within a unified national framework can enhance local governance and balanced development, and provide a basis for a comprehensive solution that rebuilds Syria as a unified state capable of meeting the aspirations of all its components.

In conclusion, it can be said that the Syrian crisis, despite its complexity and the intertwining of its political, economic and social dimensions, is not intractable. Overcoming it requires political courage and a strategic vision based on addressing the deep roots of the crisis and providing comprehensive solutions. The experience of the autonomous administration has provided a model that can be built upon, but generalizing it requires adapting it in a manner consistent with local specificities and a unified national framework. The path to Syria’s future begins with the concerted efforts of local and international actors, and the strengthening of national dialogue that places the interests of the Syrian people above all considerations, to ensure the rebuilding of a unified state capable of overcoming its hardships and achieving the aspirations of its people for security, stability and development.

T/ Satt.

ANHA