Mercenaries ' movements in Aleppo, Idlib ...Strategic dimensions and solutions - Ahmed Mohammed

Aleppo and Idlib countryside in Syria are witnessing an escalation in the military movements of the Turkish occupation and its mercenaries, which reflect complex political and regional dimensions, most notably Turkey, which seeks through these operations to achieve political gains, and send messages to Israel and the United States as well as to Russia, while trying to impose a new reality in areas of northern Syria, threatening the future of the Autonomous Administration in the North and East of Syria region. In light of this reality, a fundamental question arises, what is the most appropriate solution to confront these challenges and prevent further occupations of Syrian lands?

 Complexities of the regional and international conflict

The conflict over the Syrian geographical area is not a conflict between internal forces, but rather an arena for the conflict of regional and international powers. Foremost among them is Turkey, which seeks to expand its occupation and restore its Ottoman ambitions.

There are three other parties: the United States of America, Israel, and Russia, in addition to Turkey, which is leading the recent attack. These parties seek to exploit this attack to send a message, and despite the conflict of regional and international interests in other regions, the interests of the three parties agree on a certain point within the Syrian crisis, which is to push the Damascus government to expel the Iranian forces supporting it from the country, and to end Iranian influence in Syria.

 Messages directed to the United States of America.. Drawing new maps in the Middle East

These messages are directed specifically to the United States, which is preparing for a new political phase with the return of Donald Trump to the presidency. The Turkish occupation is trying to demonstrate its ability to control the balances in the region, in the face of Iranian influence.

 Developing the relationship with Israel

At the same time, the Turkish occupation is trying to develop its relationship with Israel, by demonstrating its ability to confront Iranian influence in Syria. This step is in line with Israeli interests, which consider Iranian expansion an existential threat. Therefore, Ankara seeks to rebuild its relations with Tel Aviv on new foundations, enhancing its role as a regional power capable of achieving balances.

This move also carries implicit messages and pressures on Russia, which is intervening in the Syrian crisis, to push the Damascus government to make concessions and normalize relations with it, and to work in accordance with the interests of both parties, especially after Bashar al-Assad refused to meet Erdogan. The Russian statements came after the recent Astana round, where the Russian envoy to Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, said: "Let's call things by their names, the Turks are acting like an occupying state, and it is difficult for Damascus to enter into a dialogue without certain guarantees from Turkey regarding the withdrawal of its forces." From all of the above, the Turkish occupation seeks to obtain a "green light" from the parties intervening in the Syrian crisis, such as the United States of America and Russia, allowing it to carry out a new military incursion into the region of North and East Syria, where the Democratic Autonomous Administration is located.

 Exploiting the preoccupation of Iran and Hezbollah

 The timing chosen by the Turkish occupation and its mercenaries for these moves is not a coincidence, but rather comes in light of the preoccupation of Hezbollah and the factions loyal to Iran with the ongoing war with Israel in Lebanon. This preoccupation gave the Turkish occupation an opportunity to move more freely in the mentioned areas, without facing a strong reaction.

It is no coincidence that the recent attacks came just one day after the announcement of a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, which confirms that the Turkish occupation carefully chose the timing to achieve the greatest possible political and field gains.

Mercenaries and Exploitation of Chaos

The exploitation of the regional chaos and Hezbollah’s preoccupation with the Lebanese front by the Turkish occupation and its mercenaries indicates the extent of the interconnectedness between the various fronts in the Middle East. This exploitation shows how the conflict is transferred from one arena to another, based on the field and political circumstances.

 Multidimensional Strategy

 In general, the recent move by the Turkish occupation through its mercenaries, “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham,” represents part of a multidimensional strategy aimed at achieving military, political, and economic goals. Through this strategy, Ankara seeks to consolidate its influence and redraw its regional role, taking advantage of the current circumstances, and sending clear messages to all parties that Turkey is a force that cannot be ignored, and is capable of influencing the course of events in the Middle East according to its interests.

These developments confirm that what is happening in the countryside of Aleppo and Idlib is not just a military attack and movement, but rather part of a complex regional and international game, through which Turkey seeks to strengthen its position as a major player in the future of the region. It also shows its readiness to expand its occupation in other areas, starting from Aleppo and reaching Mosul in Iraq, targeting the Democratic Autonomous Administration in the region of North and East Syria.

 Political agreement between the Damascus govt and DAA.. a national necessity

 The optimal solution that can block the path to Turkish expansion, prevent the division of Syria, and limit the interference of international powers in Syrian affairs is to reach a political agreement between the Damascus government and the Democratic Autonomous Administration of the region of North and East Syria.

If this agreement includes official recognition by Damascus of the Democratic Autonomous Administration and guarantees its political and administrative rights, it will strengthen the unity of Syrian territory and prevent any new foreign interventions.

Reliance on the Syrian Democratic Forces

Especially with the presence of the Syrian Democratic Forces, which have proven their efficiency in confronting attacks and repelling the most violent mercenaries such as "ISIS", they can play a decisive role in jointly protecting the Syrian borders from any attacks. This requires integrating these forces into the Syrian army while maintaining their privacy. This step will enhance Syria's defensive capabilities in the face of the Turkish occupation and its mercenaries, most notably "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham"

 The alliance between the Damascus government and the Autonomous Administration is a strategic step to curb the ambitions of the Turkish occupation and restore balance to the political and military scene in Syria.

The Damascus government faces many challenges, including regaining control over all Syrian territories and preventing the division of the country. Under the current circumstances, its forces alone cannot protect the countryside of Aleppo and Idlib from the Turkish occupation. Therefore, cooperation with the Syrian Democratic Forces will give Damascus additional strength and enhance its ability to defend the unity of Syrian territory.

The democratic experience presented by the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, despite the challenges, represents a model capable of contributing to building a common future for all Syrians. Accepting this experience and generalizing it within the framework of a unified, decentralized Syria will create a climate of trust and pave the way for a comprehensive political solution.

a.k

ANHA