Researcher: Iran- Israel conflict not deviating of its course

are significant and influential on the countries of the region. The world will reduce the possibility of developments deviating from their specific context.

During the past hours, Iran launched, via drones and missiles, an attack on Israeli territory in response to an Israeli attack that targeted the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus, and resulted in the killing of prominent Iranian leaders.

After that, opinions and analyzes varied about the nature of the next phase, and while observers saw that the conflict had entered a dangerous and new phase, others believed that the developments did not deviate from their specified framework and therefore would not lead to more severe escalation and tension.

The Egyptian researcher in international relations, Abu Bakr Al-Deeb, spoke to ANHA's agency about this, saying: “We are still at the beginning of the tension and the scenarios are still open. Will it end there? Will Israel respond and will Israel’s response be limited or expanded? Will the United States and Britain participate?” In the Israeli response, or will they pressure Israel to stop responding? All of these are open questions, but what is unique about this battle is that for the first time in the history of the Israeli-Iranian conflict, Israel strikes directly from Iranian territory, and Iran claims this strike, and Iran is able to penetrate Israeli airspace, and this is an important precedent.”

Al-Deeb added, saying: “But there is a second advantage in this strike: the objectives and means were known, and this indicates that there is coordination, whether direct or indirect, between active Iran and the United States of America as an intermediary in order to inform Israel that there must be a strike, but it is limited in time, means and places.” “This reduces the impact of the strike on the United States of America or Israel.”

He believed that "Iran may have directly or indirectly informed the United States of America that there must be a strike to relieve public opinion, whether inside Iran or the so-called resistance axis audience, and therefore the effects of that strike will be limited."

Regarding the repercussions of this, Al-Deeb pointed out that “all of these open scenarios will affect the global economy. Iran is a country located on an important strait, which is the Strait of Hormuz, and we saw how Iran seized a ship whose owner was said to be Israeli, as Iran can threaten navigation in a very significant way in the Strait of Hormuz.” Therefore, global trade is directly threatened and this affects the global economy. Iran is also an oil and energy producer. If it is struck by Israel or the United States of America, this will affect the global energy market.”

He explained, "In any case, we will see, if this tension continues, a significant rise in oil prices, and this will negatively affect energy importing countries, especially the United States, even though it is a producer and has a large surplus of oil, but it imports oil from the Middle East, and therefore any rise in oil prices will affect... The American consumer and raise inflation and may harm the chances of the Democratic Party and President Biden in the upcoming elections in November. In addition, the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait are not far from those tensions as well. If they continue and expand, this will mean a new blow to international trade passing through the Red Sea in addition to the repercussions caused by the Houthis that have been ongoing since months."

According to the researcher's opinion, these and other repercussions will reduce the possibility of developments deviating from their specific context, especially since tensions are expected to erupt in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon if the conflict between Israel and Iran increases.

T/ Satt.

ANHA