Nine Years after Raqqa’s liberation, questions remain over ISIS’s return

Today, October 20, marks the ninth anniversary of the liberation of Raqqa, the so-called capital of ISIS’s self-proclaimed caliphate, by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on October 20, 2017. However, ISIS cells remain active in parts of Syria and Iraq, while attacks and security operations targeting its members continue.

The liberation of Raqqa by the SDF, with the support of the international coalition, marked a turning point in ending ISIS control over cities it had declared centers of its power, including Mosul in Iraq.

However, continued attacks attributed to ISIS cells, repeated announcements of the dismantling of networks linked to the group, particularly the arrest of its leaders in Raqqa, and reports of its flags appearing in several Syrian areas indicate that the fight is not over despite the recapture of territory. These developments raise questions about the extent of the threat ISIS continues to pose and the possibility of its resurgence.

ISIS Activity and Flags Raise Questions in Hasakah, Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor

Footage circulating from demonstrations held in the cities of Hasakah, Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor during October has sparked controversy after flags associated with ISIS appeared in video clips.

A statement issued on October 12 by the Syrian Federation of Human Rights Organizations and Bodies, along with several signatory organizations, reported the appearance of the flags in footage of the demonstrations, alongside slogans described as inciting and exclusionary.

The organizations said the appearance of ISIS symbols amid local tensions highlights the risks of exploiting social discontent, divisions and hate speech. Such conditions could be exploited by extremist groups seeking to expand their influence or recruit new members.

The appearance of these symbols has renewed questions about the nature of their re-emergence and the parties behind their use, including whether they reflect organized activity or attempts to exploit local tensions. This comes as the threat posed by ISIS persists despite the group’s loss of the territories it previously controlled.

Continued Activity in Syria and Ongoing Security Operations

Since the beginning of this year, 73 attacks and movements attributed to ISIS have been recorded in Syria, resulting in the deaths of 69 people, including military personnel and civilians, according to available data. The group’s activity has been concentrated mainly in the countryside of Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa and Hasakah.

Among the latest examples were incidents reported in Syria in September. On September 24, a military transport bus belonging to the Ministry of Defense came under an armed attack in the Maadan area of eastern Raqqa countryside.

Residents said the attackers were affiliated with ISIS, citing the chants and signals they made during the assault.

On September 28, a vehicle belonging to a military personnel member came under an armed attack in the Nab al-Tayeb area of Hama countryside, leaving him injured and the vehicle damaged.

At the beginning of October, specifically on October 6, gunmen targeted a Ministry of Defense personnel member on the road connecting the town of Baqrus and the city of Al-Mayadin in eastern Deir ez-Zor countryside, seriously injuring him. He died of his injuries on October 10. According to his family, he had received threats from ISIS before his death.

On October 13, four members of the Road Security Forces were killed and others injured in two separate attacks targeting a patrol on the Salamiyah–Athriya road and the Hamra checkpoint in eastern Hama countryside. Security forces said they suspected ISIS was behind both attacks.

Syrian Security Operations Targeting ISIS Cells

Alongside attacks and security incidents attributed to ISIS or suspected of being linked to the group, data from the Interior Ministry of Syria’s transitional government indicates that at least 19 security operations and cases targeting ISIS have been carried out since the beginning of 2026.

At least 42 people have been arrested, while at least four ISIS members have reportedly been killed during specific security operations.

One of the most prominent operations took place on Sunday, September 27, when security forces dismantled a cell they said was affiliated with ISIS. The cell had begun operating in Raqqa before extending its activities to Aleppo, Idlib and Homs.

The operation, conducted by the General Intelligence Service in cooperation with the Internal Security Forces, resulted in the arrest of four cell leaders in Raqqa and several other members in the other governorates, as well as the seizure of explosive materials. Preliminary investigations indicated that the cell members had been involved in five kidnappings.

On Friday, October 9, the Internal Security Forces announced the dismantling of an ISIS-linked cell in the Houla area of Homs countryside. The operation resulted in the arrest of two people and the seizure of two improvised explosive devices, which the forces said had been prepared to target places of worship and Internal Security Forces patrols.

The forces added that investigations revealed one of the detainees had been involved in an attempt to plant an explosive device along a railway line. He was arrested while attempting to carry out the attack.

Syria’s Neighbors Warn of Growing ISIS Activity

Amid security warnings from neighboring countries about increasing ISIS activity in Syria, former Iraqi Interior and Finance Minister Baqir Jabr al-Zubeidi warned of a growing ISIS threat in a post published on Monday, October 5, 2026.

Al-Zubeidi said the number of ISIS fighters in Syria had risen from around 2,000 to nearly 10,000 since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in 2024.

He also warned that fighters involved in the Russia–Ukraine war could relocate to Syria and the wider region once the conflict ends, potentially worsening security risks.

Iraq Faces Attacks Highlighting the Ongoing Threat

Iraq also witnessed continued sporadic attacks attributed to ISIS in 2026, with 15 incidents recorded, according to monitoring data. The group also claimed responsibility for other attacks.

The Iraqi Center for Future Studies documented 11 operations claimed by ISIS between the beginning of the year and October 14, according to a report published on October 17.

Kirkuk Governorate, particularly the area around Hawija district in the southwest, came into focus during October amid repeated armed attacks targeting security positions and thermal surveillance equipment.

On October 5, gunmen attacked a position belonging to the Third Battalion of the Ninth Brigade of the Federal Police in the village of Barghaliya, in the Danadish area of Hawija district. The attack killed one Federal Police officer and injured four others, in addition to destroying thermal cameras at the site. ISIS later claimed responsibility for the attack.

On October 6, gunmen targeted a position belonging to the Second Battalion of the 61st Brigade of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Barghaliya village. A sniper also fired at a thermal camera at a military position, disabling it. Iraqi media reports attributed the attacks to ISIS.

Clashes erupted again in the same area on October 10, when gunmen opened fire on a Federal Police position in Barghaliya village, according to Iraqi media reports citing security sources.

The subsequent pursuit and clashes resulted in the immediate killing of one ISIS member, while three others were surrounded and arrested, according to Iraqi security forces.

Iraqi Government Operations Against ISIS

Meanwhile, Iraqi forces continued conducting airstrikes and security operations targeting sites they said belonged to ISIS.

On October 11, Iraqi F-16 fighter jets carried out two airstrikes targeting an ISIS hideout in the Narin area within the Diyala Operations Command sector. The Security Media Cell announced that the site had been completely destroyed but did not disclose any casualty figures.

On October 13, Iraqi aircraft conducted three airstrikes targeting ISIS hideouts in Wadi Zagaiton within the Kirkuk Operations Command sector.

The Security Media Cell announced the destruction of the targeted sites, while media reports citing the Kirkuk Operations Commander said at least two ISIS members had been killed in the strikes.

On October 14, an Iraqi army brigadier general and a non-commissioned officer were killed when an explosive device planted by ISIS detonated as they inspected a site that had been targeted in an airstrike in Wadi Zagaiton.

ISIS Attacks Extend Beyond Syria and Iraq Through Its Branches in Africa and Asia

ISIS activity is not limited to Syria and Iraq. Its branches continue to operate in several African and Asian countries, with the group claiming responsibility for attacks beyond the region.

In Nigeria, ISIS claimed responsibility for an attack on an army camp in Borno State in mid-October, saying it had killed 21 soldiers.

During September, ISIS’s West Africa branch claimed responsibility for four separate attacks in the same state, according to monitoring of its operations.

In Mozambique, attacks by the group’s branch continued, including an attack on a tourist camp in Niassa Province in early September and a separate bombing targeting a Rwandan forces patrol later that month.

In Pakistan, ISIS claimed responsibility for killing a person in Balochistan Province on September 8.

Nine Years Later, Could ISIS Return?

A report issued by the United Nations Secretary-General on July 31, 2026, confirmed that ISIS and affiliated groups continue to pose a persistent threat to international peace and security, given their continued ability to adapt to security pressure and exploit conflicts and instability in various regions, including the Middle East.

The report highlighted ongoing security challenges posed by ISIS in Syria and Iraq, amid concerns that the group could exploit developments on the ground and security gaps to reactivate its cells and strengthen its capabilities. It also pointed to challenges related to the security of detention facilities holding ISIS members and the transfer of detained fighters.

The report also raised questions about the ability of security efforts and coordination between the two countries to prevent ISIS from resuming its activities after losing the cities and territories it once controlled.

During a UN Security Council session on Syria held in New York on October 12, 2026, member states warned that ISIS continued to pose a threat, pointing to its attempts to exploit security gaps and local grievances to expand its activities.

As the anniversary of Raqqa’s liberation coincides with continued attacks and security operations, questions are mounting over whether security efforts can prevent ISIS from rebuilding its capabilities amid political and security instability in Syria and Iraq. Concerns also remain over whether the group could exploit these conditions to reactivate its cells, expand its attacks and influence, and begin seizing territory once again.

ANHA