HTS: From al-Qaeda to ruling Damascus; regional, international orchestrated shift

HTS began under the name “al-Qaeda,” then became the “Islamic State of Iraq and Syria” (ISIS), before changing its name to “Jabhat al-Nusra.” Later, it officially broke ties with al-Qaeda, rebranding itself first as “Jabhat Fath al-Sham,” and eventually settling on “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.”

Known for its shifting identity, HTS consists of around 20,000 fighters and receives support from Turkey. It adheres to a Salafi-jihadist ideology.

The rise of the HTS

With the onset of the Syrian crisis in 2011, ISIS in Iraq seized the opportunity to expand across the border. ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi appointed Abu Mohammad al-Julani to lead the group’s Syrian branch, officially launched as Jabhat al-Nusra in January 2012.

On April 8, 2013, al-Baghdadi released an audio message confirming that Jabhat al-Nusra was part of ISIS and declared a unified entity under the name “Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham” (ISIS).

However, within days, al-Julani rejected the merger and reaffirmed loyalty to al-Qaeda’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. This led to a bitter power struggle among jihadist factions.

Terror designation

In December 2012, the U.S. government officially listed Jabhat al-Nusra as an alias for “al-Qaeda in Iraq.” In May 2013, the U.S. designated al-Julani as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist and offered up to $10 million for information on him under its “Rewards for Justice” program.

In 2021, the State Department added HTS to its list of “Entities of Particular Concern” under the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 and the Frank R. Wolf Act of 2016, citing “particularly severe violations of religious freedom.”

Long journey toward transformation

A pivotal moment came in 2016 when al-Julani appeared on camera for the first time, revealing his face and announcing the group’s disassociation from al-Qaeda. Wearing military attire and a turban, he declared that the new organization “has no ties to any external entity.”

In January 2017, in alignment with regional and international preferences, particularly from Turkey and the UK, which sought to integrate HTS into the so-called Syrian opposition — the group rebranded itself as “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.”

Al Jazeera Channel played a key role in promoting al-Julani and HTS, airing a 2015 interview in which he delivered multiple political messages and softened the group’s image both locally and abroad.

In the interview, he outlined his envisioned policies should he come to power in Syria, targeting only Iran and its regional proxies like Hezbollah, while avoiding any mention of Palestine or Israel.

Evidence suggests this shift was internationally coordinated, as al-Julani was provided with political and media platforms to present himself as a capable leader. In a 2021 interview with PBS, he explained that his nickname “al-Julani” derived from his family’s origin in the occupied Golan Heights, from which his grandfather was displaced in 1967.

The fall of the Syrian regime and gaining the results of change

Following the fall of the Assad regime, it became clear that there was a regional and international consensus to entrust the transitional governance of Syria to HTS and al-Julani. Now publicly identified as Ahmad al-Sharaa. Former U.S. Ambassador Robert Ford revealed that he had collaborated with a British organization to help train al-Julani. According to Independent Arabia, that organization was “Inter Mediate,” based in London and founded in 2011 by Jonathan Powell. Powell stepped down in December 2024 after being appointed as National Security Advisor by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Britain was among the first countries to explore lifting restrictions on HTS, initiating discussions in December 2024. In Germany, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that HTS’s treatment of minorities would determine Berlin’s stance.

As HTS launched an offensive against remnants of the Syrian regime, al-Julani pivoted from hardline Islamist rhetoric to a more moderate tone. He began using his real name, Ahmad al-Sharaa, and visited the historic Citadel of Aleppo after his forces seized control. On December 4, he sought to reassure Christians that they would not be harmed.

Motives and consequences

The removal of Jabhat al-Nusra from the terrorism list came just a week after then-President Trump signed an executive order ending a set of U.S. sanctions on Syria. Observers believe the move aims to reintegrate Syria into the global financial system and support reconstruction after years of devastating civil war.

Many analysts link this U.S. move to speculation that Damascus may be preparing to join normalization agreements with Israel and cede parts of Syrian territory in the process.

However, the emergence of an Islamist government in Syria under HTS raises serious concerns. Experts warn that such a development could reinvigorate ISIS activity in both Syria and Iraq and inspire other extremist Islamist factions across the region, in Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Tunisia, and Egypt, to seek power.

A-H

ANHA