Fears of escalating violence in Syria amid continued violations; stalled returns of IDPs

Growing signs are raising questions about Syria’s ability to avoid a new cycle of violence, as security incidents and human rights violations continue, societal tensions escalate, and progress on transitional justice and the return of displaced people remains slow.

During October, several developments occurred concurrently, including tensions in Hasakah Governorate, attacks targeting displaced Kurds as they attempted to return to Girê Spî /Tal Abyad, and ongoing obstacles preventing residents of Serê Kaniyê / Ras al-Ain from returning to their homes. These developments coincided with continued killings and targeted attacks in several parts of Syria.

These incidents have brought civilian protection, the right of return, and civil peace back to the forefront, amid continuing security incidents and growing fears that societal tensions could widen.

Since the beginning of October, the city of Hasakah has witnessed several attempts to undermine security and stability. On October 8 and 9, the city experienced security tensions following attacks on Kurdish symbols. Gatherings and protests took place, leaving several civilians injured and property damaged, while security forces were deployed and gunfire was reported in some areas.

Following attacks on Kurdish families returning to Girê Spî on October 26, some parties sought to inflame tensions within Hasakah. Groups riding motorcycles attempted to attack the governorate building while chanting sectarian slogans against Kurds. Clashes and confrontations were also reported around the Industrial Roundabout, the bus station, and the Marsho Roundabout.

Hours later, the Internal Security Command in Hasakah Governorate announced that the situation was under control. It stated that several suspects had been detained in connection with acts of vandalism and that investigations were ongoing. However, no further information was available regarding those detained.

These developments come at a time when the governorate is witnessing movements related to the integration process between the institutions of the Autonomous Administration and those of the government, including the reorganization of security and administrative institutions, alongside the return of displaced people from several areas, including Serê Kaniyê and its surroundings.

Against the backdrop of these events, concerns are growing that political disagreements, protests, or local demands could turn into ethnically charged confrontations, particularly when accompanied by inciting rhetoric or attacks on civilians and property.

Political parties and Arab and Kurdish community leaders are calling for these tensions to be addressed, for investigations into the attacks to be conducted and those responsible held accountable, for citizens’ right to express themselves and engage in peaceful protest to be guaranteed, and for all parties to be prevented from exploiting these events.

Girê Spî: attacks on returnees threaten Civil Peace

On October 26, displaced Kurds were subjected to attacks as they attempted to return to their homes in Girê Spî. The incident renewed fears of further violations against displaced people seeking to reclaim their homes and property.

The incident sparked widespread reactions across northeastern Syria. Protest vigils were held in the cities of Darbasiyah, Hasakah, Qamishlo, Tal Tamr, and Tal Abyad, condemning the attacks and demanding that displaced people be guaranteed the right to return to their homes and property safely and with dignity, and that those responsible for the attacks be held accountable.

The incident has also brought renewed attention to violations previously committed against displaced Kurds in other areas, particularly Serê Kaniyê , where returning families were subjected to attacks last August as they attempted to reclaim their homes and property.

The consequences of these attacks extend beyond the harm inflicted on civilians and their property to affect civil peace, particularly when the issue of return becomes a source of tension and resentment or is exploited in political and societal disputes.

The events in Kri Sipi coincide with continued obstacles to efforts to facilitate the return of displaced people to Serê Kaniyê and its countryside, following years of displacement. Return convoys to Serê Kaniyê face multiple obstacles, most notably the continued presence of Turkish forces in several villages and military positions, the closure of roads preventing some families from reaching their areas of origin, and the continued occupation of displaced people’s homes in the city center.

The seventh return convoy was scheduled to depart yesterday, Tuesday, October 27, but its departure was postponed indefinitely.

Killings and crime statistics: An ongoing toll in 2026

Coinciding with security tensions and attacks in several parts of Syria during October, published statistics reveal the widespread scale of crime across the country.

According to statistics published by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights on October 11, 2026, a total of 410 murder cases had been recorded since the beginning of the year, resulting in the deaths of 454 people, including 355 men, 61 women, and 38 children.

Aleppo topped the list of governorates in terms of the number of crimes and victims, with 77 murder cases resulting in 89 deaths. Rural Damascus followed with 59 cases that claimed 71 lives, while Deir ez-Zor recorded 50 cases, leaving 51 people dead.

Hasakah also recorded 30 murder cases resulting in 31 deaths, while Raqqa recorded 29 cases that claimed 30 lives.

Among the most notable incidents reported at the beginning of October 2026 was an armed attack targeting a bus belonging to a private plastics manufacturing company. The bus was carrying engineers and workers near the Masyaf Bridge, in the vicinity of the Hawla area in western rural Homs. The attack killed seven people and injured four others.

These figures reveal continued loss of life and the spread of crime across multiple areas. However, they do not mean that all incidents were politically, ethnically, or sectarianly motivated, as their causes vary, ranging from local armed clashes to other incidents linked to the conflict.

Is Syria heading toward a new cycle of violence?

The protection of civilians, the return of displaced people, investigations into attacks, and accountability for those responsible for crimes remain among the most pressing issues, according to observers, amid continuing security incidents, escalating societal tensions, and slow progress in addressing transitional justice.

As these developments continue, fears are growing among Syrians that the accumulation of grievances and violations, the absence of effective accountability, and the escalation of inciting rhetoric could deepen societal divisions and threaten civil peace, at a time when Syria faces multiple security and human rights challenges.

ANHA