Could Iran target Bab al-Mandab after Hormuz closure?

Amid the ongoing war on Iran, speculation is rising that Tehran or allied regional actors might close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, potentially delivering another major shock to global energy markets. This comes after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which drove oil and gas prices in Europe up by over 30% in the early days of the conflict.

5 March, 2026 18:12

Hormuz closure shakes energy markets

Iran’s shutdown of Hormuz, following US and Israeli operations, triggered a severe disruption in global energy markets. As a key route for Gulf oil and gas, the closure caused unprecedented price spikes amid fears of broader supply instability and renewed global energy crises.

The next strategic chokepoint

As the conflict escalates into a regional war, attention is turning to Bab al-Mandab, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal. A large portion of global oil, gas, and essential goods passes through this strait, making it a critical artery for the world economy.

Fragility of global energy supply

The deteriorating security situation in the Middle East highlights how vulnerable energy markets are to maritime disruptions. Early in the war, over 100 vessels were delayed in Hormuz, causing oil prices to surge sharply, demonstrating the potential impact of future blockages.

Bab al-Mandab: risks and scenarios

A closure of Bab al-Mandab would severely disrupt not only energy supplies but also global trade in consumer and essential goods. Ships would have to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding thousands of miles, increasing costs and transit times, and driving up global prices.

Experts warn energy costs could reach historic highs, reminiscent of the 1970s oil crises, while liquefied natural gas prices in Europe and Asia could also spike, affecting Gulf energy exports.

Economic shockwaves

Combined disruptions in Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab would likely push global energy prices higher, raise production and shipping costs, and accelerate inflation worldwide, particularly in energy-importing countries.

Political and military consequences

Closing Bab al-Mandab would be seen internationally as a direct threat to maritime security, prompting potential global intervention. The US and allies might respond with military action to reopen the strait, increasing international pressure on Iran.

A Double-edged sword

While Iran could use the closure as leverage in negotiations, the move carries high risks. It could provoke a broader international response, escalate regional conflicts, and turn a strategic advantage into a political and military liability for Tehran.

ANHA