Stopping the "Astana track"... A change in Kazakhstan's position, or a pavement for a new track?

The twentieth round of the "Astana" meetings on Syria ended with an agreement between Russia, Iran and Turkey, on the absence of a military solution in Syria, as they put it, and they claimed commitment to reaching a sustainable political solution led by the Syrian people, in coordination with the United Nations in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution No. 2,254. Claiming its deep concern about the humanitarian situation in Syria, which was exacerbated by the devastating earthquake on February 6, 2023.

But Kazakhstan's deputy foreign minister, Kanat Tomis, unexpectedly called an end to the trilateral talks, declaring that their goal had been achieved. "Syria's gradual exit from isolation in the region can be seen as a sign that the Astana process has completed its mission," he told reporters.

According to Tomis, "In view of Syria's return to the family of Arab states, the declaration formally proposes that the twentieth meeting of the Astana process be the last."

It is clear that this was not the plan of the three negotiating parties, as they said in a joint statement after the talks that the next meeting will be held later this year without specifying the location.

Kazakhstan's decision to end the "Astana" course suddenly can be explained by several factors, according to what political analyst Ghaseb Mukhtar told ANHA agency, "One of these factors may be Kazakhstan's vision to achieve its declared goal of restoring Syria to the Arab flod after Damascus' return to the Arab League, which is What can be considered an achievement of the goal of talks on the Astana track.

Mukhtar added, "The Astana track represents a tool of political pressure on other parties involved in the Syrian crisis, including the United States and European countries. By continuing this track, Russia can maintain some credibility and negotiating power in the international scene, by effectively passing on its messages and positions." to the other parties, so Moscow wants to continue on the Astana path despite Kazakhstan's withdrawal.

And the political analyst continues, "Russia has an interest in preserving its role as a major mediator in resolving the Syrian crisis and preserving its influence in the region. Moscow may also see that the Astana track provides a platform for negotiation and continuous dialogue between the parties concerned in the conflict, and enhances political stability in Syria."

Regarding the expected scenarios, Ghaseb Mukhtar affirms, "Either the talks will be extended elsewhere, or we will witness Turkish normalization and rapprochement with the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, but this scenario faces several obstacles, including that Erdogan's recent offer to Assad was for electoral purposes, but now that If Erdogan wins a new term, such a meeting is unlikely.

Kazakhstan has been hosting meetings since 2017, with mixed results. One of the biggest steps announced in Astana was dividing the Syrian lands into "De-escalation" zones under the supervision of different countries, contributing to the floating of the Damascus government, and giving the Turkish occupation state more free hand to occupy the Syrian lands.

T/Satt.

ANHA