How will regional and international variables affect the quadripartite meeting in Astana

On June 21, the Kazakh city of Astana will host a meeting of the deputy foreign ministers of the Turkish occupying power, Russia, Iran and Syria.

The new meeting is part of a long path launched by Russia to normalize relations between the Turkish occupying state and Syria.

The beginning was through intelligence services. Several rounds of meetings were held between Syrian Intelligence Chief Ali Mamlouk and his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan (current Foreign Minister). Security relations between the two countries were not interrupted even at the height of the conflict between them since the beginning of 2011, and continued until they paved the way for meetings at the ministerial level.

On 11 August 2022, after several intelligence meetings, former Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu revealed that he had a brief conversation with the Foreign Minister of the Government of Damascus, Faisal Miqdad on the sidelines of last October's NAM meeting in the Serbian capital of Belgrade. At this pace, Turkey's positions and statements are followed.

The trajectory officially appeared on 28 December 2022, when the Russian capital Moscow hosted a meeting between defence ministers and heads of intelligence services of the Turkish occupying power, Syria and Russia.

After Iran initially missed the course of normalization, apparently to its dismay, both Russia and the Turkish occupying state announced Iran's annexation of the path to turn tripartite meetings into quadripartite meetings.

These meetings were postponed on more than one occasion under various pretexts, until a meeting of the four States' foreign ministers was held on 10 May last.

The new meeting between the state's four deputy foreign ministers on 21 June comes amid a number of constants and variables.

The basic requirement of the Government of Damascus for progress in normalization with the Turkish occupying state is the withdrawal of the occupying forces from the occupied Syrian territories, in addition to the cessation of support for mercenary groups, a condition that the Turkish occupying state rejects.

But the Damascus Government's negotiating position differed considerably from at the beginning of the normalization process. as it gained more strengths as it was returned to the Arab League, it seems to be trying hard to keep Syria out of Iranian astronomy and confront Turkish arrogance that is living through one of its worst moments with repeated depreciation of Turkish lira and sharp division in Turkish society, and a significant decline in the popularity of fascist President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Internationally, the United States remains reluctant to reject normalization with the Damascus government, without the latter taking concrete steps on the course of a political solution consistent with UN Resolution 2,254.

The European Union's position is not different from that of the United States with regard to normalization between Syria and the Turkish occupying state, and European countries insist of the continuation to say (not normalization, not reconstruction, not the lifting of sanctions, unless the regime actively participates in the political solution. We fully support the efforts of the United Nations and resolution 2,254).

While Russia remains engaged in its fight against NATO on Ukrainian soil, paralleled by skirmishes with American forces in North and East Syria, the latter met with further military reinforcements, accompanied by media reports of the deployment of F22-Raptor.

In the light of these constants and variables, Russia announced a few days ago a road map ready for normalization between Syria and the Turkish occupying state, amid questions about the possibility of a breakthrough in the course of normalization with all these contradictions between the Government of Damascus and the Turkish occupying stat

T/ Satt.

ANHA