​​​​​​​Fabricator of crises wins the elections

The most important Turkish presidential elections in the history of this country, since the founding of the republic, ended with the victory of Recep Tayyip Erdogan for a presidential term that will continue for another five years, with a narrow margin over his rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. In addition to politics, the economic factor is one of the most important factors - if not the most important - That will have an impact on the results on the one hand, as well as on the post-election phase.

The value of the Turkish lira depreciation and approached the limits of 20 liras per US dollar, as a result of Erdogan's economic policies, which he insists on continuing after the elections, and other stations is the depreciation currency to low levels. Attention has also begun to turn to foreign currency reserves, in the absence of a safe environment for investors, and the stock market indices in Turkey have declined.

Erdogan's economic policy, according to the global credit rating agency "Moody's", kept investors away from investing in Turkey, led to a decrease in the default index of external debt, and to continued inflation and currency depreciation, so the credit rating agency "Moody's" expects Erdogan to continue his policy. Unconventional economic, which will deepen the losses of the Turkish economy.

Inflation rates also reached more than 80% last July, which fell to 43.68 last month, which is still high and burdens the average citizen in Turkey.

On November 21, 2021, Turkey was placed on the “grey list” by the Anti-Money Laundering Committee, as it was concluded that the anti-money laundering measures are insufficient.

In the absence of confidence in the Turkish economy and the policies of those who control it, the Turkish lira receives many blows, as a large part of its decline is due to dollarization, as Turks tend to convert their savings into dollars.

Economic decline and progress in Turkey is a natural result and this is greatly affected by the political events in this country, which are hostage to Erdogan's internal and external policies.

Erdogan's policies

The Turkish economy made good strides from the beginning of 2003 until the year 2011, and this is due to Erdogan’s adoption at the beginning of his rule of the policy of zero problems, which he soon abandoned with the beginnings of the Arab Spring and turned from the policy of zero problems to zero friends.

At first, Turkey, a member of NATO, worked to exploit the demonstrations calling for change in Tunisia and Egypt, and then directed the support of the Muslim Brotherhood in these two countries, thanks to which the (soft intervention) turned the Egyptian revolution seeking change into a counter-revolution that set Egypt and Tunisia back decades, and he also contributed Significantly through the rough intervention in Libya and Syria in spreading chaos, destruction and killing in these two countries by dedicating the majority of the Turkish budget to serving its hard and soft war machine on several fronts in the east and west, as well as in supporting thousands of mercenaries in Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan, which created many hostilities across the region.

Therefore, the continuation of the bad economic, political and social conditions and the depreciation of the lira will affect the future of this country, and will transform it from an economy among the major countries into a weak and secondary economy.

Erdogan and surrounding issues

Under Erdogan's rule, Turkey displayed its hard power in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Armenia. It occupied large parts of Syria and Iraq, carried out demographic change operations inside Syria, and sent mercenaries to Libya and Azerbaijan, not to mention its direct support for ISIS and al-Qaeda mercenaries.

The past ten years have also witnessed a series of diplomatic confrontations with the countries of the region, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE (regarding Ankara’s support for the Brotherhood), Greece and Cyprus regarding the maritime borders in the eastern Mediterranean.

Erdogan tried to play on the Russian and American ropes, as he bought Russian air defense systems and put obstacles in joining some countries into NATO, but he still continues the policy of American creative chaos in the region, and Turkey also mediated an agreement that allowed the export of Ukrainian wheat across the Black Sea, not to mention sending Turkish weapons to the Ukrainian army.

What about the Turkish-Syrian relationship?

The normalization of relations between the Turkish occupation state and the Damascus government is an important issue, which Erdogan has worked on since the Tehran tripartite summit on July 19, 2022, in addition to the issue of the return of Syrian refugees, as Erdogan will work in the coming period to satisfy the extremist nationalists by expelling the Syrian refugees, but this The matter will limit the European financial aid sent to Turkey (to reduce immigration), which will constitute an economic dilemma for Turkey, which is already in crisis.

The Damascus government is insisting on the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syria as a precondition for any normalization and any meeting between Bashar and Erdogan. However, it is unlikely that Erdogan will implement this condition, which if implemented will weaken the mercenaries of the "Syrian National Army" and change the situation in Idlib, where it controls The mercenaries of "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham", which will weaken Turkey at the subsequent negotiating table, especially since the position of the Damascus government has become stronger in light of the restoration of relations between the latter and the main Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE) that reject the occupation (of the Turkish military presence) in Syria and Iraq.

T/ Satt.

ANHA