​​​​​​​Mutual American-Iranian escalation in NES... Reasons and tracks

 This escalation came after important events in the world and the region, most notably the Arab efforts to bring back Iran's ally (the government of Damascus) to the Arab ranks and the warm welcome that Bashar al-Assad received in Russia and the Emirates, as well as the imminent return of diplomatic relations between the government of Damascus and Saudi Arabia. This is in terms of regional developments.

As for the global level, the influence of Washington's opponents in the region (China and Russia) has increased, especially after an agreement brokered by China two weeks ago between Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume relations and separate talks mediated by Russia between Saudi Arabia and Syria to restore relations, as well as the visit of the Chinese President to Russia, which will inevitably affect global and regional developments.

 And about the role of these developments and reconciliations that are taking place and will happen, with the Iranian-American escalation, and is it a Chinese-Russian message through Iran? The researcher on Iranian affairs, Muhammad Abadi, said in an interview with our agency, that "the escalation between Washington and Tehran on Syrian territory is Russia's message through Iran, but  not in the context of Saudi reconciliation with Iran, but rather in the context of whenever Washington and Britain send drones to Crimea, the immediate response comes from Russia, via Iran, to the US bases in eastern Syria. This is the first matter."

 As for the second matter, according to the researcher, it is "a reference to what Bashar al-Assad said, that he welcomes more Russian bases in Syria, and this means that at this moment, he will grant more presence to the Russian forces, which will be adjacent to the American military presence, which will stifle this presence and make about  1,000 American soldiers are in danger, especially since there is a Russian-American contact in Ukraine, and this means that whenever Russia is pressured in Ukraine, Moscow will put pressure on the American presence in Syria.

 The third issue, according to Abadi, is "the Turkish position, as the latter has always denounced the US military alliance with the Syrian Democratic Forces. Therefore, Ankara will support the Iranian-American skirmishes on Syrian territory, and in the event of Washington's withdrawal from Syria under the pressure of this quadruple Syrian-Russian-Iranian-Turkish alliance, and this will be beneficial for the Turks because the American withdrawal will sever the alliance on the ground between the United States and the Kurds."

Reports and analyzes indicate that the increase in Chinese-Russian influence does not mean a decline in the influence of the United States in the east, as it is still a prominent political and military force in the region and the world, but the shift in the aforementioned geopolitical alliances complicates Washington's efforts seeking to get out of the region and shift focus towards great power competitions with Russia and China.

 On this, Ebadi said: “Of course, the United States is the most important and largest actor in the world politically and militarily, and it is ahead of other countries. The United States’ military budget is $865 billion, while China’s military budget is $252 billion, and Russia’s military budget is about $61 billion.” This reveals the huge difference between the largest powers in the world.

However, the researcher added, "There are developments in the world where the United States has classified China as the greatest threat to its security, followed by the Russian threat, and therefore Washington is intensifying its presence in the South China Sea, and establishing very important military alliances in the Indian and Pacific oceans with Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan to contain Chinese influence.

 This means, according to Abadi, that "the United States will reduce its involvement in the Middle East, and this feeling has leaked to the countries of the region and has leaked to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and I found that there is hesitation on the part of Washington in managing the files of the Middle East, especially the Iranian nuclear file and Iran's influence in the region,  Therefore, it was forced to go to China in order to conclude an agreement with Iran to spare it any escalation by Israel, given that Washington's easing of its involvement in the Middle East, will give a great green light to Israel to engage in the Middle East, and this happened when Israel moved from the European Command to the Central Command. 

And on the course of the development of events and clashes, Abadi saw that "an Israeli clash with Iran or with Syria and any escalation in occupied Palestine; this means that the region is going to war and an expanded clash, and therefore, in light of the reduction of the American presence in these lands, this gives the countries of the region a new regional formula."  For the solution, it prevents this clash and this fire that will strike the security and stability of the region and the energy that many countries in the region depend on, whether for export or import.

 Therefore, the Kingdom concluded special understandings with Iran by placing a number of conditions on the table.  The most important of these are security files, such as the Houthi file, according to the researcher.

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