UN warns of violent escalation in Syria, researchers confirm: solution is exit of external forces

 The UN-appointed Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria warned of the potential for a violent escalation in the Syrian conflict, while publishing a report on the 11-year war, and officials responsible for the continuing cycle of violence in Syria, as Turkey increased its hostile attacks on northern and eastern Syria.  Iran's proxies have also increased their missile attacks on American bases in eastern Syria, and Russia has increased its raids on northwest Syria, and the Damascus government is trying to restore its control over Daraa and Suwayda in southern Syria through the use of force, and ISIS mercenaries are trying to revive their "caliphate" by attacking on  Prisons, as well as through camps housing women and children who adopt the ISIS ideology, all of this comes in the absence of any real solution to the Syrian crisis.

 In its report, the commission warned that Syrians are facing increasing suffering and hardship resulting from the deadly consequences of the war that lasted more than a decade and intensified along its northern front.

 “Syrians today are facing increasing and intolerable hardships and are living in the rubble of this long conflict,” said Commission Chair Paulo Pinheiro, at the launch of the 50-page report on the human rights situation in Syria.

"Millions suffer and die in displacement camps, while resources get scarcer and donor fatigue is growing, Syria cannot afford to return to the fighting on a large scale, but that's how far it's headed," he added.

 External interventions

 During an exclusive interview with our agency, the political researcher in Syria and the Middle East, Muhammad Nabil, held the primary responsibility for the upturn of events to several forces, including the Turkish intervention in northern Syria, which the researcher considered as "illegitimate and prolonging the Syrian crisis because he did not come with a legitimate invitation from the Syrian government is modeled after the Russian intervention.

 The researcher added that "the Turkish intervention was on the one hand to serve Turkish interests, as well as to target the Kurds in northern Syria."

 Nabil also believes that "the Iranian intervention, which came at the official invitation of the Syrian government, is very similar to the Turkish intervention by prolonging the crisis, because the Iranian presence in Syria casts a shadow over the continuation of the cycle of violence in Syria through the continuation of the Israeli intervention and the Israeli bombing of both  Iranian military sites in Syria, as well as Syrian military sites, considering that the Syrian side helps the Iranian side in its presence in Syria, and this threatens the Israeli occupation from the Israeli point of view.

The writer and political researcher, Rami Al-Khalifa Al-Ali, ruled out, during an exclusive interview with our agency, a major escalation at the present time in Syria, saying: “I do not think that there is a possibility of an escalation of events in the coming days in Syria. There is no influential party in the Syrian crisis, who has an interest in blowing up the situation, Iran wants to reach a nuclear agreement and it does not want to change this field and military reality and control Syria, while Russia is preoccupied with the Ukraine war."

  As for the Turkish occupation state, according to Al-Ali, “even if it wants to carry out an operation in northeastern Syria against the SDF, but in the end, the matter is dependent on international approvals that are not available, and it cannot take an adventure, and the United States does not want to explode the situation and open a conflict.”  Another in the region, especially with the Russian side and the Iranian side, for various reasons, and it is not in anyone’s interest to explode events in Syria. I expect that the current situation may witness some frills and some minor changes, but there is no real and decisive change, at least during the foreseeable term.

 As for the researcher, Muhammad Nabil, he said in the same context that “the escalation of events again or not in Syria depends on two dimensions: the first depends on political considerations through Syrian involvement in the Arab and regional political system, and this indicator has become clear in the recent period through official visits by the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad to the United Arab Emirates last March and his meeting with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, or through Arab interaction with Damascus by normalizing relations with Damascus, as Bahrain did in December 2021, and it opened its embassy in the Syrian capital, Damascus, and the other dimension we must bear in mind, which is the Turkish president's statement last August that he does not rule out dialogue and diplomacy with Damascus."

He added, "Therefore, this is a strong indication of the extent of Turkey's intention to choose the path of diplomacy with Damascus after 11 years of war in Syria. Therefore, through the first and second dimensions, it can be said that these two dimensions are indicators that are directly reflected in the escalation or decline of events in Syria."  The more Syrian involvement in political understandings and its regional neighborhood, the fewer military events in Syria will be.

 No solution can be reached without the exit of all external forces

 In the escalation of the war of influence between Moscow and Western countries, Russia wants to "weave a solution" in Syria in its own way, by contributing to a "peace" contract between Ankara and the Damascus government, and transferring the meetings that bring the two sides together from the intelligence level to the political level, as the Deputy Foreign Minister said  Russian Mikhail Bogdanov: "Moscow supports the idea of ​​organizing a meeting of the foreign ministers of Turkey and Syria... and we are ready to help hold it if necessary," adding: "We see that the meeting will be useful, we are talking about establishing contacts between the two sides, and currently contacts are taking place at both levels."

 In this context, he considered that the return of relations between Ankara and the Damascus government is not an easy thing, saying: "As for the Russian-Turkish relations, the situation is subject to Russian pressure, especially on the Turkish side, but the possibility of returning relations to its previous era is not that easy, and it needs to be  for a long time, of course there are some procedures that began in the form of meetings at the intelligence level, but official meetings may need more time than that.”

 He added, "The main point is the point of agreement on the SDF, and can Ankara and Damascus agree on the regime's access to all areas of northern and eastern Syria. This I think is very difficult, given that the United States, which has a presence in northern and eastern Syria, is the main supporter of SDF.  Without its approval, I do not think that there is a possibility for the regime to return to these areas, and so far the US administration has not shown approval for this matter, which Ankara yearns for."

 On the possibility of reaching a solution in Syria and implementing the international resolution 2254 without Turkey leaving and holding its agents on the ground who committed war crimes against the Syrians accountable, Muhammad Nabil, a political researcher in Syrian affairs and the Middle East, said: “Of course, UN resolution 2254 on political transition can be implemented.  In Syria, but it can only be implemented by stopping all military operations in Syria and leaving all the countries that intervened in the Syrian crisis without exception with the holding of early parliamentary and presidential elections, so the decision is subject to the international will in Syria and not only to the will of the Syrian government.

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