Does the new Daraa deal success? Political analyst; it's subject to a Russian guarantee

On August 31^st, the central committees in Daraa, along with the Russian guarantor and the forces of the Damascus government, reached a new agreement and a cease-fire armistice in Daraa al-Balad.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that an agreement was reached between the forces of the Damascus government and the central committees in Houran regarding Daraa.

According to the observatory; It was agreed with the Security Committee and the Russian delegation to implement the demands starting from Wednesday. The terms of the new agreement include a cease-fire, settlements for wanted persons, handing over weapons, displacing those who do not wish to conduct a settlement, entering the Russian military police into Daraa al-Balad and raising the Damascus and Russian flags, establishment three common points between Military Security and the Eighth Brigade of the Fifth Corps.

On the extent of the success of the new agreement in Daraa al-Balad, Syrian journalist and political analyst Malik al-Hafiz said: "It is a copy of the Russian road map that was presented a few days ago. A Russian role must end the escalation supported by elements of Iranian influence in the south, as Tehran seeks to establish great influence It has it in the south, and this is what most of the active forces in the Syrian issue reject, and it obstructs any future steps for a solution in Syria.”

Al-Hafiz continued: "The last agreement can continue to succeed if Russia remains a real guarantor of it and maintains coordination with the Arab parties, particularly Jordan, in parallel with an American monitoring role that prevents any military escalation or ground invasion of the region."

Regarding the beginning of the implementation of the Russian proposal after the Jordanian King’s visit to Russia one day only, political analyst Malik al-Hafiz said: “It seems that there is a common vision for both Jordan and Russia regarding the Syrian file, especially in efforts to reach an appropriate solution to the intractable situation in southern Syria.”

Russian-Jordanian consensus on Daraa

The Jordanian king met with the Russian president on August 23^rd, at a time when meetings were continuing to reach a solution regarding Daraa al-Balad, and the media reported that the Daraa file would top the Jordanian-Russian meeting.

In this regard, Al-Arab newspaper said on Monday, "The security file and the latest developments in Daraa, Syria, dominate the discussions that will start on Monday between Jordan's King Abdullah II and Russian President Vladimir Putin, in addition to discussing files related to bilateral relations between the two countries and regional and international developments."

Militants to the occupied north of Syria

A group of armed men opposing the Russian proposal and rejecting the settlement with the Damascus government left for northern Syria occupied by Turkey and its mercenaries in two batches. The first batch carried 8 people, while the second batch carried 79 people.

On August 25, the observatory said that a bus carrying 8 displaced people from Daraa al-Balad, who had refused to compromise with the forces of the Damascus government, arrived at the Abu al-Zandin crossing near the occupied city of al-Bab, east of Aleppo, the first batch of displaced people.

The second batch of 79 displaced people from Daraa al-Balad arrived in the city of al-Bab, occupied by Turkey, on the 27th of the same month.

To establish its influence, Iran fails negotiations

Regarding the party responsible for the failure of the previous negotiations and their goals, the Syrian political analyst explained that "the one responsible for this collapse is Iran and the elements of its influence in the south who seek to sabotage any agreement in their desire to establish a long-term influence there after the military escalation they aspire to."

And he added: "The forces of the regime have different loyalties between the Russian and the Iranian, while those with Russian influence are working to stop the specter of military escalation in return for imposing security and military influence throughout the province, while the pro-Iran side seeks to make the south a military platform to serve Iranian interests in particular, so they obstruct any agreement. They are trying to inflame the situation and continue the siege and bombardment of civilians."

Before the new agreement, Daraa al-Balad witnessed intense bombardment. During the past period, Damascus government forces have intensively bombed areas in Daraa, with attempts by the Fourth Division to storm Daraa al-Balad, in addition to local gunmen attacking checkpoints of the latter in the area, and demonstrations condemning the bombing.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitored the bombing of more than 50 surface-to-surface missiles on the besieged neighborhoods of Daraa al-Balad, coinciding with continuous missile shelling in light of violent battles that took place on the fighting axes in the area, where the forces of the Fourth Division tried to storm Daraa al-Balad backed by the groups loyal to them, several checkpoints of the Damascus government were also attacked by local militants in separate areas of Daraa.

As a result of the bombing, 22 people lost their lives, including 10 children and women, and about 26 elements of the Syrian government forces were killed in clashes with the militants, of whom about 17 were killed, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The people of a number of settlements' areas in southern Syria staged evening demonstrations that block the roads, denouncing the military attack on the city of Daraa al-Balad. The demonstrators demanded the cessation of military operations in Daraa al-Balad and the lifting of the siege on it.

Daraa will not witness a new movement

Regarding the possibility of Daraa returning to square one, Al-Hafiz said: "We cannot witness any new movement in the south by emptying it of armed forces with heavy influence. There are currently a few fighters with light weapons who cannot continue the military confrontations for a long time."

T/S

ANHA