Research Center: Coercive diplomacy towards Turkey is Biden's second choice

The Emirates Policy Center said, "The incoming US administration wants to punish Turkey for its many transgressions, such as the tyrannical methods of Erdogan, his strict military measures against the Syrian Kurds and the purchase of the Russian missile defense system."

The center believes that there are two American visions about Turkey, the new president must strike a delicate balance between them; The first one, according to the center, is strong engagement with Turkey under the pretext that it is a pivotal main country and the only Islamic country in NATO. The second one is that Turkey suffers from delusions of grandeur and is a lost cause.

The center suggested that Biden would reach a balance between these two camps by proposing to carry out a conditional reset process based on barter with Ankara before entering into coercive diplomacy through the imposition of sanctions.

In order for the conditional reset to succeed, there is a need to deal with two problems to reach a new understanding with Ankara, namely, the Russian S-400 missile defense system and the Syria issue, in which the war is about to end, but the situation is resolved beyond. It remains elusive, according to the center.

The center finds that "there will not be a close relationship between the two countries as long as Erdogan is in power, but there will also be no resemblance to the hostile relationship between the two parties, and the alternative will be the scenario of resetting conditional, coercive diplomatic relations with severe sanctions."

The center points to Trump's protection of Erdogan in Washington from coercive actions in the past two years, and adds: “In the absence of Trump and the arrival of Biden, both the American judiciary (which is looking into the Halkbank case, and the US Congress (concerned with imposing sanctions in accordance with the Anti-America Adversaries Act) have the privilege of during the sanctions) with more force to push Ankara towards a compromise, but at the end of the day, it will be the state of the Turkish economy and Erdogan's hopes for re-election that may push him toward barter diplomacy.

The center promises that "the chances of a conditional reset of relations, in conjunction with Turkey's announcement that it will not use the Russian S-400 air defense systems, will be a rational choice for Erdogan, and of course Russian President Putin will not be happy with that, and he may retaliate by taking some measures in Syria, such as Renewed bombing in Idlib and forcing Turkey to deal with one or two million Syrian refugees on its borders.

The center concluded: "It will appear with time whether Erdogan will choose a settlement with Biden and risk angering Moscow or not."

(A)

ANHA