​​​​​​​Panorama of Week: New Russian handling of Syrian crisis, Eastern Mediterranean witnesses escalation in tension

During the past week, Arab newspapers reported the visit of the Russian delegation to Damascus, in addition to the escalation in the eastern Mediterranean, and the American presence in Iraq.

Al-Sharq al-Awset: Russia is developing a "New strategy" in dealing with the Syrian file

The Arab newspapers published during the past week on the Syrian issue dealt with several topics, the most prominent of which was the Russian moves. In this context, Al-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper said: “The recent visit by a prominent Russian delegation to Damascus launched a new phase in Moscow’s handling of the Syrian file, which can be considered The third "great turning point" for Russia since the outbreak of the Syrian crisis.

However, the features of the new turn do not bear a "reversal" in the Russian approach, which diplomats describe as "a fixed approach based on the necessity of implementing international decisions and not going toward show jumps", as it paves the way for developing a new strategy to deal with the blockage of the horizon of political settlement.

Moscow deliberately failed to release signs indicating a major shift in its positions, during the public statements of the Minister of Foreign Affairs or Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov, and more than that, Damascus has obtained an implicit Russian support for holding the presidential elections "as scheduled" next year, even if nothing happened. Progress on the work of the Constitutional Committee.

On the other hand, a prominent analyst did not rule out that Moscow had put on the table something like a timetable that included the completion of a constitutional amendment, and submitting it to the popular referendum by next March, followed by parliamentary elections in May, and then presidential elections in July. From Moscow's point of view, this is consistent with Security Council Resolution 2254, ruling out at the same time, any Russian tendency to approve the formation of a transitional governing body.

On the other hand, a clear discrepancy emerged between the mechanisms of Moscow and Damascus’s abuse of more than one important point in the crisis files, and this withdrew to the relationship with the Kurds, and the Russian defense of efforts to involve the Autonomous Administration of the North and East of Syria in the political process, in exchange for the official Syrian reservation on any move from this type.

Economically, and with talk of 40 projects to rehabilitate industrial infrastructure in neighborhoods and an expansion of the "road map" for economic cooperation that the two sides signed two years ago, Moscow seems to have drawn up a plan to expand the presence of its major economic companies in an important share of the Syrian infrastructure projects.

Against this background, the first features of the upcoming Russian move are crystallized, by asserting that there is no military solution for the parts that are still not under the control of the Syrian government, and contrary to the idea that Moscow was previously hesitating about the need for “every inch of Syrian territory to return to the control of the legitimate government. “The Russian approach seems to be based on preserving the current spheres of influence for the various parties, and for the solution to be part of the final settlement.

In this context, Moscow is waiting for the directions of the new US administration after the elections, in terms of commitment to the decisions of withdrawal, and at the same time it opens channels of dialogue with the Kurds to find a formula for their representation in the political process without angering Ankara.

In Idlib, the approach is based on the fact that the final form of the settlement must be based on a Turkish-Syrian dialogue that leads to a consensus that establishes mutual respect for interests and border security, which means that it can be based on the Adana Agreement (1998) with the possibility of expanding it somewhat, the basic message to Damascus , That it should not hinder Russia's existing alliances with the various parties, primarily Turkey, in addition to that Moscow is managing its confrontation with Washington in the northeastern regions with mechanisms that put it through possible understandings with Washington after the elections.

On the same track, Moscow stressed the need to take swift and specific moves for internal reforms; this confirms the need not to obstruct the work of the Constitutional Committee or the political track in general. Here, it is important to refer to what media reported from a source familiar with the details of the visit who believed that the essence of the Russian message is "If Assad does not undertake reforms, he will remain without funding, and only in a part of Syria, this will be his decision, and he must bear its consequences."

Al-Bayan: Greece warns Turkey ... to de-escalate or confrontation

Regarding the tension between Turkey and Greece, Al-Bayan newspaper said: "The Greek government issued a strong warning to Turkey, stressing the need to reduce escalation or face harsh sanctions with the launch of Turkish military maneuvers in the north of the island of Cyprus, in the latest episodes of tension between Turkey and Greece, which has been going on for months."

And according to the Greek newspaper "The Greek City Times", Greek government spokesman Stelios Petsas said, "If Turkey does not take actual steps towards de-escalation, the situation will lead to a very dangerous curve for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the European Council."

Petsas noted that Turkey may face more European Union sanctions due to its energy exploration activities in the eastern Mediterranean, stressing that "for the first time there is a list of strict sanctions, which can be implemented in whole or in part."

For his part, the Vice President of the European Commission, Margaretis Chenas, warned that "this may be the biggest, and perhaps the last, opportunity for Turkey to return to the path of appeasement and dialogue."

He added: "It should be clear to everyone - and I think this has already been made clear - that no one can blackmail Europe with shouting or threatening, it is time to make its decision about sitting at the dialogue table."

Greece transferred the file of tension in the eastern Mediterranean to the Security Council, and its Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias said that it would provide a briefing to the Security Council on Turkey's illegal activities.

Al-Arab: A deliberate US withdrawal from Iraq would secure the forces and ease pressure on Al-Kazemi

Regarding Iraq, Al-Arab newspaper said: “The United States announced, on Wednesday, its decision to reduce the number of its forces in Iraq from more than five thousand soldiers to three thousand only, this September.

This came, according to what US media reported, according to General Kenneth McKinsey, commander of the US Central Command in the Middle East.

This would be the largest reduction of US forces in Iraq since 2016, and it will be implemented in a much faster timeframe than was reported just weeks ago.

As far as the decision is related to a broader goal previously set by the Trump administration and related to reducing the US military presence in specific places in the world, withdrawing forces from Iraq comes closer to the process of rearranging the status of those forces by reducing their numbers and confining them to their deployment in specific highly fortified locations.

The issue of the US military presence on Iraqi lands does not concern Baghdad alone, but also Tehran, which sees the withdrawal of those forces as a victory for it in the struggle for influence it is waging in the region, and therefore it worked to disturb its comfort by using its affiliated militias that are active in Iraq.

The various sources unanimously agree that Washington is not about to radically end the US military presence in Iraq, as maintaining a minimum level of that presence is vital for the United States to closely monitor Iranian moves in Iraq and Syria, and it is a strategic goal that Washington has been working on for years and is not about to abandon about him.

Observers link the new US decision to the election campaign of President Donald Trump, who previously promised to "end America's wars abroad," but he also agrees with an urgent Iraqi need.

And if this decision is linked to the US presidential elections that will be held next November, then it may play a decisive role in tipping the Iraqi government during the heated debate in which Iran uses the card of "occupying American forces" to diminish the sovereignty of Iraq and pressure the Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi to submit to its policies.

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ANHA