Syria on anniversary of revolution... Important stages, milestones from beginning until toppling al-Assad regime

In this second part of the Syrian crisis report, we highlight the failure of international forums and conferences to provide solutions to the Syrian crisis, as well as the paths of rapprochement between the Assad regime and the Turkish occupation, Arab normalization with the regime, in addition to the collapse of the Syrian regime and the Syrians' expectations of achieving the true goals of their revolution and the challenges against that.

There have been several sessions that have yielded nothing substantial.

Geneva has witnessed numerous series of talks between the Syrian conflict parties since June 30, 2012, but none of them have achieved anything because of several factors; most notably the lack of members of the Syrian people and failure to agree on the terms of the agreement by the respective parties.

The Sochi Syrian Dialogue Conference was called on 30 January 2018 amid a Western boycott and under the exclusion of several active Syrian political parties and organizations, as well as mercenaries' representatives linked to Turkey and Syrian regime representatives.

And after more than one and a half years of negotiations, the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on 23 September 2019 announced the formation of what is called the "Constitutional Committee," and it was decided to be formed at the Sochi conference hosted by Russia, Turkey, and Iran, and Geneva was agreed to be the venue for the meetings of the "Constitutional Committee.".

Over eight rounds of eight sessions, its three players the Syrian regime, the so-called opposition, and civil society failed to pen a single article of the constitution.

Southern Syria asserts its voice again.

Following the victory of the Democratic Autonomous Administration experience in the North and East Syria region, the people of As-Suwayda tried to go through the same path, and to a certain extent were successful in limiting the activities of the Syrian regime forces and institutions. Young people of the area refused to sign up for compulsory military service, and local units and some political councils and institutions were formed, leading to clashes between As-Suwayda 's population and Syrian regime's security forces.

Protests in As-Suwayda have turned into regular events, following the Syrian Loyalty Party and civil society forces' announcement to form local management committees that will manage some service institutions. The organizers of this action indicate that this is a preparatory step to develop and mobilize the movement in the coming period.

A failed rapprochement between the Assad regime and the Turkish occupation.

The Syrian crisis experienced a watershed moment in 2022. Following decades of animosity between Turkey and the Syrian regime, and Turkey's occupation of vast Syrian territories, a reconciliation between the two adversaries came into existence following the Tehran summit the Astana delegates took part in on July 19, 2022. On August 6, the heads of Russia and Turkey met in Moscow, in which the occupying state leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan reported that his interlocutor, Vladimir Putin, had offered to him a resolution for the crisis during their negotiation, in alignment with the Syrian regime. Then, the defense ministers of Russian, Turkish, and Assad sat together in Moscow. These meetings, however, did not become political in style, and this trend later paused.

Arab countries are giving a lost opportunity to the Assad regime.

After the devastating earthquake on February 6, 2023, all Arab countries extended their hands to the Syrian regime and offered humanitarian aid. Assad visited Oman for the first time, and Russian efforts succeeded in bringing the Syrian regime back to the Arab League. But this has not affected the Syrian reality, especially the political and economic situation.

According to the information unveiled until now, Assad's regime was unable to meet Arab countries' demands, especially with regard to distancing themselves from Iran, helping to reduce the activities of Iranian militias in Syria, not providing Hezbollah with support and aids, and making some political, economic reforms internally to escape the crisis.

Turkey betrays its Astana partners. Al-Assad regime collapses

Despite the passage of many years since the start of the Syrian revolution and the growing number of Syrian martyrs, which aggravated the humanitarian crisis, the Syrian regime did not change its policies, either internal, where it continued to insist on following its policy of repression and exclusion and clung to its criminal authoritarian mentality, or external, where it failed to respond to Russian actions and Western pressures in reducing Iranian role and militias. It also did not respond to Russia's efforts to achieve rapprochement with Ankara. All this led to the formation of a regional and international stance against al-Assad regime, and Assad's recent actions before the fall of his regime, i.e., his insistence on the relationship with Hezbollah, were a main reason for speeding up his collapse.

During the time of the fall of al-Assad regime and afterwards, Turkish negativity was realized as it attempted during the previous years to eliminate the role of democratic, national, and civil forces in Syria. At the same time, the role of radical Islamic forces, such as thousands of foreign fighters, especially from the Uyghurs and Chechens, was solidified. These forces, being under the leadership of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (previously Jabhet al-Nusra), currently rule Syria.

The post-regime fall phase... Many hopes, fears, and challenges

Despite the Syrians' hopes of ending decades of repression and despotism, Damascus authority today faces a number of challenges, the most unique of which is abiding by the national, ethnic, cultural, and sectarian diversity of Syria. To date, the present rule in Damascus has failed to overcome this challenge, as violations and mass murders have been committed against the Syrian coast's Alawite sect. It is also still unable to deal properly and in good faith the political and social forces, as these forces and elements did not form part of the political movement by the powers regarding what is known as the "national dialogue" and the drafting of the constitutional declaration.

One of the challenges that the new Damascus leadership will most probably face is the presence of many with foreign connections, especially to Turkey, who are seeking to utilize their political, military, and economic influence. There are also many undisciplined groups and factions that have extremist beliefs that do not suit the diverse nature of Syria.

The Syrian opponent, Ali Al-Amin explained the phase of the downfall of the regime, as follows: "Al-Assad regime could not continue ruling due to the abandonment of Russia, Iran, and Turkey. Various factions replaced the regime and inauguration Ahmad al-Shara, who referred to himself as Abu Muhammad al-Julani, as the head of the transition phase according to international agreements."

He went on, "The collapse of al-Assad regime is not the end of the road, nor the revolution's end. The revolution begins after the fall of Assad, which is manifested in having a democratic, civil, free homeland and a just state of citizenship, a homeland governed by the law. Nearly 100 days since the fall of the regime, the Syrian arena appears unbalanced, be it in security, economy, or politics. We are still waiting for conclusive steps to outline the unknown Syrian future."

He pointed out that "the caretaker government assures that it will achieve the goals of the revolution, but on the ground, it is doing nothing in this regard. Syrians are still waiting for the roadmap declared by the head of the transitional stage to be applied. It is certain that Syrians did not revolt against al- Assad regime because they personally hated Bashar Assad, but because they rejected the entire corrupt system, rejected social exclusion, and rejected dictatorship."

In conclusion, he emphasized that "what is required from this government and the new leadership is to work towards fulfilling the hopes of the Syrians by preserving the unity of Syrian land, maintaining the unity of the Syrian people with all their ethnic and sectarian components, building a free democratic system, establishing law and security, and utilizing the national potential of the free Syrian economy. Any failure to achieve any of these goals will drive the Syrians to continue their political struggle to push towards achieving the goals of the revolution."

T/S

ANHA