Initiatives unable to stop the fire in Lebanon
Initiatives are still unable to stop the fire in Lebanon. An expert believes that there are two priorities that Lebanon requires at this critical stage: a ceasefire and the election of a president for the republic. The ceasefire is linked to the decision of Israel, which insists on continuing its war, while the election of a president is considered necessary and key to returning order to the political institutions of the state.
Internal and external efforts in Lebanon emphasize the need for a ceasefire and the implementation of Resolution 1701, but the Israeli army continues its mobile attacks between the south, the Bekaa and the capital, and Hezbollah continues to issue escalatory positions on the continuation of the fighting, the latest of which was issued by the party's media relations official, Muhammad Afif, who confirmed that the battle is still in its early stages, and that Israel has seen only a little so far.
Observers wonder: Will internal and external diplomatic efforts succeed in the next stage, or will field considerations remain a priority for the Israeli army and Hezbollah, especially in their dealings with this war?
Initiatives still unable to stop the fire
There is no doubt that the field escalation precedes the ongoing diplomatic efforts to stop the fire, because the diplomatic solution needs time, while the field remains the priority for both parties. However, a ceasefire is necessary at this stage, especially with the scenes of destruction and victims extending from the far south and the Bekaa to Beirut.
According to the founding member of the "Tahrir" movement, Ali Khalifa, who spoke to ANHA's agency, internal and external initiatives are still unable to impose a ceasefire, "Hezbollah succeeded in imposing war on Lebanon with Iranian approval so that Iran would maintain a role at the negotiating table and share influence in the region, and the events in Gaza are an Iranian response with iron and fire and trading in the blood of the peoples of the region against the Arab Peace Initiative, and thus Lebanon was dragged into the war by a decision from Hezbollah that came to preserve Iran's role in the region."
Ali Khalifa believes: “The war imposed by Hezbollah on Lebanon is a great catastrophe for Lebanon and the Lebanese on all levels. It decided to open a war front, but the decision to stop it is not in its hands, but in the hands of the Israelis, who do not take into consideration the diplomatic pressures calling for a ceasefire and the implementation of 1701. Even these efforts this time are taking the decision to resolve the war on the ground with regard to Hezbollah’s role in the region. Therefore, Iran is prepared to sacrifice the party for what serves its interests, and this is what will be revealed in the next stage at a time when Israel will rearrange its cards in the region.”
Weakening Hezbollah's capabilities will not restore it to its glory
It is difficult for Hezbollah to regain its prestige militarily and politically, as the losses in its ranks are great, especially with the targeting and assassinations that have targeted it.
Khalifa believes in this context that the party has lost its leaders and the basic elements that played a role in making political and military decisions on the ground, "and Iran is also following the party's indicators in terms of the strikes and targets that it launches against Israel, especially since the principle of disparity and imbalance in capabilities between Hezbollah and Israel has emerged in this war."
Khalifa added that Hezbollah will not be militarily the same in the coming phase as it was before due to the weakening of its capabilities. Politically and socially, the party’s approach will remain somewhat of a continuation of its proposal for the project of the Guardianship of the Jurist. Economically, it relied on a good loan, and after the party’s headquarters was struck, its economic capabilities were destroyed. Consequently, this matter will negatively affect the party’s environment, which has been disappointed internally and resentful externally of Iran, which used the party and abandoned it “upon request” and within the interests it seeks to achieve.
Khalifa believes that Iran's foreign policy is based on engagement, fronts, and the unity of arenas in order to secure a place for itself at the negotiating table in the region. It uses the capabilities of the countries it has influence over, and this is what it did on the southern Lebanon front to serve its interests, while Israel secured an international ceiling for itself. In the Lebanon war, it relied on the narrative of Hezbollah opening the southern front on it on October 8. Therefore, it believes that it was subjected to aggression by Hezbollah and is confronting it militarily until it is eliminated.
Khalifa noted: "There is an agreement to limit Hezbollah's roles, especially in partnership with Iran, in exchange for certain concessions. This comes within the framework of maturing settlements and deals that serve its interests."
Lebanon's priorities between a ceasefire and electing a president
Lebanon requires two priorities in the difficult phase it is going through, which are a ceasefire and electing a president for the republic.
According to Khalifa, the ceasefire is linked to the decision of Israel, which insists on continuing its war, while electing a president is necessary and the key to restoring order to the state's political institutions. He said: "But the problem lies in the specifications of the president, which are represented by a president to manage the current crisis, or a president who takes us to the stage of returning to the state, and therefore he is required to be keen on implementing the state's roles in defense, security, economy and society, and also to be keen on international relations by implementing UN resolutions."
Khalifa noted that both matters are subject to developments that go beyond local initiatives, and that the president in the next stage will carry the security title, while relying on the role of the Lebanese army, which is capable of implementing international resolutions, is linked to the maturation of regional conditions that allow the army to perform this role.
A dangerous phase awaits the day after the war
The day after the war is more dangerous than it, especially with the tragedies, calamities and dangers that invade the scene in this attack. According to Khalifa, the war, despite its enormity and danger, will lead to weakness on the day after it. The catastrophe is overwhelming, as there are more than a million displaced people, and most of their homes have been destroyed, and there will be no opportunity to rebuild them.
Khalifa pointed out that the opportunity remains to present an alternative that will return the Shiites to the state project, but he does not count on the efforts of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is still working under the Iranian umbrella in an attempt to bring about change.
Khalifa relied at this stage on strengthening the third option for the Shiites outside the circle of the "duality" represented by the Amal Movement and Hezbollah.
Ali Khalifa explained: "This third option will seek to involve the Shiites in the issues of the Lebanese state, hand over Hezbollah's weapons to the army, implement international resolutions, and engage in a national workshop to restore the state as the sole guarantor of society and its national unity and a necessary condition for building the future of Lebanon."
T/ Satt.
ANHA
Initiatives unable to stop the fire in Lebanon
Internal and external efforts in Lebanon emphasize the need for a ceasefire and the implementation of Resolution 1701, but the Israeli army continues its mobile attacks between the south, the Bekaa and the capital, and Hezbollah continues to issue escalatory positions on the continuation of the fighting, the latest of which was issued by the party's media relations official, Muhammad Afif, who confirmed that the battle is still in its early stages, and that Israel has seen only a little so far.
Observers wonder: Will internal and external diplomatic efforts succeed in the next stage, or will field considerations remain a priority for the Israeli army and Hezbollah, especially in their dealings with this war?
Initiatives still unable to stop the fire
There is no doubt that the field escalation precedes the ongoing diplomatic efforts to stop the fire, because the diplomatic solution needs time, while the field remains the priority for both parties. However, a ceasefire is necessary at this stage, especially with the scenes of destruction and victims extending from the far south and the Bekaa to Beirut.
According to the founding member of the "Tahrir" movement, Ali Khalifa, who spoke to ANHA's agency, internal and external initiatives are still unable to impose a ceasefire, "Hezbollah succeeded in imposing war on Lebanon with Iranian approval so that Iran would maintain a role at the negotiating table and share influence in the region, and the events in Gaza are an Iranian response with iron and fire and trading in the blood of the peoples of the region against the Arab Peace Initiative, and thus Lebanon was dragged into the war by a decision from Hezbollah that came to preserve Iran's role in the region."
Ali Khalifa believes: “The war imposed by Hezbollah on Lebanon is a great catastrophe for Lebanon and the Lebanese on all levels. It decided to open a war front, but the decision to stop it is not in its hands, but in the hands of the Israelis, who do not take into consideration the diplomatic pressures calling for a ceasefire and the implementation of 1701. Even these efforts this time are taking the decision to resolve the war on the ground with regard to Hezbollah’s role in the region. Therefore, Iran is prepared to sacrifice the party for what serves its interests, and this is what will be revealed in the next stage at a time when Israel will rearrange its cards in the region.”
Weakening Hezbollah's capabilities will not restore it to its glory
It is difficult for Hezbollah to regain its prestige militarily and politically, as the losses in its ranks are great, especially with the targeting and assassinations that have targeted it.
Khalifa believes in this context that the party has lost its leaders and the basic elements that played a role in making political and military decisions on the ground, "and Iran is also following the party's indicators in terms of the strikes and targets that it launches against Israel, especially since the principle of disparity and imbalance in capabilities between Hezbollah and Israel has emerged in this war."
Khalifa added that Hezbollah will not be militarily the same in the coming phase as it was before due to the weakening of its capabilities. Politically and socially, the party’s approach will remain somewhat of a continuation of its proposal for the project of the Guardianship of the Jurist. Economically, it relied on a good loan, and after the party’s headquarters was struck, its economic capabilities were destroyed. Consequently, this matter will negatively affect the party’s environment, which has been disappointed internally and resentful externally of Iran, which used the party and abandoned it “upon request” and within the interests it seeks to achieve.
Khalifa believes that Iran's foreign policy is based on engagement, fronts, and the unity of arenas in order to secure a place for itself at the negotiating table in the region. It uses the capabilities of the countries it has influence over, and this is what it did on the southern Lebanon front to serve its interests, while Israel secured an international ceiling for itself. In the Lebanon war, it relied on the narrative of Hezbollah opening the southern front on it on October 8. Therefore, it believes that it was subjected to aggression by Hezbollah and is confronting it militarily until it is eliminated.
Khalifa noted: "There is an agreement to limit Hezbollah's roles, especially in partnership with Iran, in exchange for certain concessions. This comes within the framework of maturing settlements and deals that serve its interests."
Lebanon's priorities between a ceasefire and electing a president
Lebanon requires two priorities in the difficult phase it is going through, which are a ceasefire and electing a president for the republic.
According to Khalifa, the ceasefire is linked to the decision of Israel, which insists on continuing its war, while electing a president is necessary and the key to restoring order to the state's political institutions. He said: "But the problem lies in the specifications of the president, which are represented by a president to manage the current crisis, or a president who takes us to the stage of returning to the state, and therefore he is required to be keen on implementing the state's roles in defense, security, economy and society, and also to be keen on international relations by implementing UN resolutions."
Khalifa noted that both matters are subject to developments that go beyond local initiatives, and that the president in the next stage will carry the security title, while relying on the role of the Lebanese army, which is capable of implementing international resolutions, is linked to the maturation of regional conditions that allow the army to perform this role.
A dangerous phase awaits the day after the war
The day after the war is more dangerous than it, especially with the tragedies, calamities and dangers that invade the scene in this attack. According to Khalifa, the war, despite its enormity and danger, will lead to weakness on the day after it. The catastrophe is overwhelming, as there are more than a million displaced people, and most of their homes have been destroyed, and there will be no opportunity to rebuild them.
Khalifa pointed out that the opportunity remains to present an alternative that will return the Shiites to the state project, but he does not count on the efforts of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is still working under the Iranian umbrella in an attempt to bring about change.
Khalifa relied at this stage on strengthening the third option for the Shiites outside the circle of the "duality" represented by the Amal Movement and Hezbollah.
Ali Khalifa explained: "This third option will seek to involve the Shiites in the issues of the Lebanese state, hand over Hezbollah's weapons to the army, implement international resolutions, and engage in a national workshop to restore the state as the sole guarantor of society and its national unity and a necessary condition for building the future of Lebanon."
T/ Satt.
ANHA
