Experts: possibility of change is non-existent in Iraq through local elections

For weeks, the streets of Iraqi cities have been filled with advertising banners for candidates in the provincial council elections scheduled to take place on Monday, December 18, for the first time since 2013, amid major political crises taking place on the political scene in Iraq.

According to Iraqi media, elections are being held in 15 governorates, not including the governorates of the Southern Kurdistan region, and the number of people entitled to vote is 17 million voters, distributed among 7,166 electoral centers.

6,000 candidates are competing for 285 seats in all governorates, the largest of which is the Baghdad Provincial Council, which includes 49 members, followed by the Basra Provincial Council, which includes 22 seats.

1,600 women are running in the elections, representing the 25% specified for them, and 10 seats have also been allocated for the Christian, Yazidi, and Sabian minorities.

Observers expect weak popular turnout to participate in the electoral process due to the failure of successive administrations in Iraq to resolve the crises plaguing the country.

Public anger and crises

Director of the Baghdad Center for Studies, Manaf Al-Musawi, believes that “the current elections will be among the weakest elections at the level of popular participation due to the crisis of confidence produced by mismanagement in Iraq, which prompted a large sector of Iraqis to refrain from participating, which was evident in the last elections and will appear more clearly in the current elections.”

He told ANHA agency: “The political forces have moved significantly and clearly away from the popular bases as a result of the policies used by these forces and the continuation of the process of quotas, partisan influence, and the transformation of parties to serve influential people and achieve the interests of their leaders, especially with a significant shortage in the level of services such as education, health, and the rest of the other sectors, which suffer more.” Including the central and Southern regions.

He pointed out that "the provincial council elections are taking place after 10 years of freezing under the notorious electoral law, which is rejected by the popular base, citizens, and the religious authority, and the political forces insist on it because it serves their interests and provides them with a return to the political front."

According to the director of the Baghdad Center for Studies, “All these indicators lead to the weakest elections that Iraq may witness, and participation will be partisan only, especially with the withdrawal of the Sadrist movement, with its popularity, as well as the national forces and independents, which increases the chances of the elections being weak and not being representative of the Iraqi people.”

Al-Moussawi also considered that "the crisis of the removal of Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi will also affect participation rates and increase the weakness of the electoral process."

The Iraqi expert believes that “the silent majority may resort to rejecting these elections and the results they will yield through diplomatic and legal means,” pointing out that “what comes after the elections may be more problematic than before them, and the electoral conflict will begin clearly in light of the results that the elections will produce, which will have implications.” On the course of the political process in Iraq.

Preliminary to Parliament

For his part, Iraqi politician Fayeq Yazidi believes that "the local elections will not bring about any change in the political map in Iraq or the balance of power. Rather, they can be considered preliminary to the upcoming House of Representatives elections."

He told ANHA agency: “Every political force will maintain its position and seats in its governorate, and the scene may only differ in Kirkuk, which has a different status and specificity. There will be great competition and no list in Kirkuk will be able to achieve a majority and monopoly in ruling the governorate, and the political forces will find themselves forced to return to consensuses to resolve the conflict within Governorate".

He pointed out that "the local elections are a popular, democratic entitlement that paves the way for the restoration of the provincial councils, which are supposed to organize the process of administering the provinces and that there should be a greater application of decentralization to reduce the burden on the federal government. They also represent a real opportunity for the Iraqi voter to give his vote to whoever fulfills his demands and provides his services."

Yazidi expected that "the ruling forces in Iraq will maintain their leadership in the scene, especially in light of the boycott of the Sadrist movement and the presence of representatives of all religious, ethnic and sectarian components within the so-called State Administration Alliance that currently holds the reins of power in

T/ Satt.

ANHA