From Afghanistan to Kurds Butterfly Effect

Rauf Karakogan

American intervention in Afghanistan ended in total defeat after 20 years of occupation, and the attacks on the World Trade Tower marked the beginning of a new phase, al-Qaeda had hijacked passenger aircraft, attacked targets in the United States and caused considerable shock.

In the aftermath of those attacks in 2001, the United States overthrew Al Qaeda and the Taliban, which had been led by Mullah Omar, liquidated its administrative system, established a new administration under its control and said he hoped it would succeed. The shirt he was forced to wear in Afghanistan wanted to change. We have seen in the example of Afghanistan that traditional societies cannot be easily destroyed through external interventions.

There are many reasons why foreign intervention in Afghanistan is not successful. Afghanistan's social, cultural, geographical and mental history plays an important role. Time is also a key factor of success, and perhaps one of the most important factors that has forced the United States of America to withdraw and fail is internal dynamism, ideological line, resistance and determination of Afghan society's struggle. The other is time itself. For all these reasons, the United States of America has been in military, political and economic difficulties; As a result of the 20-year war in Afghanistan, it was forced to withdraw.

Although recognized as a terrorist organization, the Taliban has been welcomed and has gained legitimacy in many capitals, and Afghanistan will become a state where terrorist organizations such as ISIS and Al Qaeda are organized. They left Afghanistan as a field of explosions between Russia, China and Iran, and the United States of America left this to the countries of the region, but that does not mean that it has completely abandoned the scene. Afghanistan has had a butterfly effect on its surroundings, and with the production of terrorism and drugs it will continue to exist as a world problem.

US pullout still remains on the global agenda, and there are many scenarios about the new situation and how it will end. Of course, there are some lessons to be learned from this. Especially for the Kurd; The Turkish state is trying to take advantage of the problem in Afghanistan. From asking to protect Kabul airport to getting a job in Afghanistan, it wants to use the Taliban to serve it. Again, it is looking for a new opportunity to use Afghan refugees to change the demographics of Kurdish areas (as with Syrian refugees) in order to become an armed force and be used in war for them

Turkish state is building Afghan refugee centres to use in its battle against the Kurdish Liberation Movement in Bakur and Southern Kurdistan. Afghan refugees had already settled in Northern Kurdistan before now. Erdogan who says there's no difference between the AKP mentality and the Taliban mentality wants to take advantage of the opportunities that come from chaos.

On the one hand, it will try to use Afghan refugees on the international scene, and the remnants of ISIS mercenaries will be used as a weapon against the Kurdish people's freedom struggle.

Another important issue; The impact of the Afghan butterfly on Western Kurdistan (Rojava). If the United States withdraws from Syria, how will this affect Rojava? That's a question. The Syrian problem is multifaceted, and the problem of Rojava can be solved only by solving the problem of Syria.

The United States, Russia, and Iran, which have troops in the region, do not yet have a common policy on a solution in Syria. The misguided convergence of international powers is prolonged and the Syrian problem left unresolved.

With the withdrawal of the United States, the prospect of the Turkish state invading Rojava became a subject of debate. In fact, Turkish state attacks on Rojava continue every day. Even if it does not take sufficient place in public opinion, it is understood that the state of war continues. In return for these attacks, the United States of America and Russia do not respond in their opposition to and disapproval of these attacks, nor are they in a position to support the Kurd. They maintain their pragmatic, every day and vague positions. So... Russia and Iran are linked to the dying Syrian regime and continue with their regional policies. On the other hand, the United States of America supports the Kurd to maintain balance in the region, its incompatible alliance always jeopardizes the Kurd.

There is always the possibility of an increase in humanitarian tragedies due to the withdrawal from Afghanistan, including for Rojava. The presence of the United States of America, Russia, Iran and Turkey in Syria and the inspiration of public opinion in seeking a solution to the Syrian problem is in fact the full protection of interests, which are of no use to the peoples of the region. They're trying to establish the area on the basis of the interests of the state.

The continued chaos is caused by its presence in the region; It is against the perspective of a solution that assumes the integration of peoples, self- autonomy and the organization of self-defence; That's its policy in a nutshell. The Turkish state opposed the independence referendum in Bashur Kurdistan and is not tolerant of the Rojava administration.

Turkish state's hostility to Kurd will continue in all Kurdish areas, and the long - term survival of the United States in Rojava will be more dangerous than its exit. The Kurds have a very deep political vision not to rely on other powers as a people, and will take their position according to the nature of the Third World War, and will continue to struggle for freedom, which ensures their existence.

T/S

ANHA