Elections and deep arrangements. Who rules and what's the future of the regime in Iran?

The Iranian election... The exclusion and the accusations, who's the luckiest?
Iran is in the process of holding presidential elections, under what has been described as a sensitive phase in the country's life, for several reasons, most notably the regional and internal developments and pressures that preceded these elections.

These elections come after several developments, the most important of which is the American escalation against Iranian influence in the region and Iraq in particular, the most prominent of which was the assassination of General Qassem Selimani.

These elections were also preceded by numerous popular protests over the impact of the economic crisis because of the sanctions imposed on them, which escalated after the withdrawal of the United States from the nuclear agreement.

Different Elections
 

About that, the expert on Iranian and Gulf studies Hani Suleiman said: "Iran is preparing for the presidential elections, which is different from any previous presidential elections in many respects, first of all the idea of crafting the accompanying elections."

Iran was facing a difficult and highly sensitive phase, not only the Iranian regime, but the Islamic Revolution of 1979, considering that there were many outstanding challenges and issues at a delicate stage, such as the nuclear program and negotiations with Washington, as well as the future of the security regime, under numerous protests and internal anger on the Iranian street. "The regime's ability to continue with ideological discourse, the export of revolution, the extent of its convictions for Iranian citizens and the regional context."

He continued: "Finally, there are certain regional threats to Iran's regional influence, especially given that the regime has suffered several strikes, including the killing of Soleimani and Al-Muhandis in Iraq, or that some of its influence has declined as a result of increased resistance from the United States or even the street's rejection of the Iranian regime's practices. This has occurred in Lebanon and Iraq."

How's this election going?

Iranians go to the polls on 18 June to elect a successor to moderate President Hassan Rouhani.

The 13th elections in the history of the Islamic Republic (as of 1979 year), under economic and social difficulties, are exacerbated by the US sanctions and the outbreak of COVID 19.

Seven candidates, the majority of whom are conservative hardliners, are in the first cycle. If no candidate receives an absolute majority, a second ballot session will be held on 25^th June between the two candidates receiving the largest number of votes.

The seven candidates held leadership positions in the Iranian state, and Ibrahim Raisi, a hardline conservative who since 2019 has been the head of the judiciary and one of the main pillars of the political system in the Islamic Republic, appears to be the luckiest candidate to win in the absence of competitor.

These candidates include two reformists (Abdel Nasser Hamti-Mohsen Meher Ali Zadeh) from the Turkish minority.

Why did you rule out prominent figures?

Of the approximately 600 candidates nominated on June 18^th elections to choose a successor to moderate President Hassan Rouhani, the Council for the Maintenance of the Constitution granted only seven candidates.

The Council, an unelected body of 12 predominantly conservative members, excluded prominent candidates such as moderate conservative Ali Larijani, former Chairman of the Consultative Council, adviser to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and First Deputy Rouhani Eshaq Jahangiri Kouhshahi.

hile Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's exclusion was a repeat of what he faced in the 2017 elections, the exclusion of Larijani, who had previously run in the 2005 presidential elections and had been one of the most prominent aspects of Iranian politics for years, in addition to Jahangiri, came as a surprise.

About that, Suleiman said: "During the elections, some candidates, such as Larijani, who had the highest fortunes with Ibrahim Raisi who was excluded, and this is surprising that he was never opposed to the regime."

Exclusion of ethnicity and women. Elections for the Dead Body "

He added: "These last amendments, if we add them to the ones that already exist, and some strict conditions, I think, make there some kind of elections in which there is no competition for no representation of the political forces."
He continued: "The regime is like a dead body of unilateral elections, which is an attempt to give formal democracy no more than if we are talking about excluding women from running for the presidential election and also excluding non-ethnic Iranians from Persians and excluding different races of Arabs, Turkmen, Kurds and others."

Who's the luckiest?

"It is clear that there is a desire to bring Ibrahim Raisi specifically as the death judge, who is the most senior judge to bring Iranian citizens who were involved in protests and other executions and thus provided substantial services to the regime," he added.

He explained that "Ahmadinejad's exclusion is understandable, given that at the end of his term in 2013, and although he was affiliated with the guard and his relationship with the regime was strong, at the end of his term there were disagreements with the leader, and in recent years he accused the regime of being dictatorial and the Supreme Leader of being corrupt and stole about $190 billion from the Iranian people's money."

Suleiman asserted that "the regime is trying to arrange the internal house for a future stage and wants to adopt a consistent and disciplined foreign policy in which there is no disagreement over the marginalization of the surprise factor or opposition until it controls Parliament through Mohamed Bakr Mohamed Baqir Qalibaf, the judiciary through its President or successor, the Presidency by controlling the position of President, ensuring a consistent line and policy to confront Washington and resolving future contentious files, the nuclear file, as well as domestic policies. that may hinder the regime after it was faced with severe protests, and therefore it is trying to arrange the stage in favor of one line of hardliners and exclude any other voices.

Suleiman noted that in the parliamentary elections, when reformers were excluded, there was no competition and low turnout in Iran's history, and that this point is particularly disturbing for the regime after it was met with strong opposition and signs of weak participation in the presidential elections because the Iranian street was not interested and the result of difficult economic conditions was thwarted. A situation of despair and a boycott of the elections was anticipated, so the regime wanted to polish its image and restore some sort of calculated competition by reviewing some of the excluded candidates, as Khamenei and the Council for the Maintenance of the Constitution had said.

Suleiman said, "So to this moment there is no competition, because the results are pre-determined and prepared, and all the features confirm that there will be dominance like Parliament and there will be a President who will be hard-liners and there will be no real competition, but to talk about maybe sending many excluded candidates or revisiting them may seem like an opportunity or a breath for some candidates, but I think that won't lead to strategic change."

He added: "If Ali Larijani were put on the list, he would succeed, and he would be a good man of the regime and a strong relationship with him, and Raisi would be well - known, but things would not go away from those names unless there was a surprise, and that surprise might hurt a regime that didn't want to leave things to chance, and so competition would be formalism and artificial democracy."

Hani Suleiman concluded: "The expected results of these elections, I believe, are headed towards Ibrahim Raisi. All the other candidates have a very poor chance. "

Tomorrow: Developments like embers under the ashes... What is the future of the regime in Iran?

T/S

ANHA