What are most important political developments witnessed by Syrian issue in 2018?

LAZGIN IBRAHIM / NEWS DESK

Tours of Astana 8 and Sochi and Afrin deal in exchange for al-Ghouta

Russia, Turkey and Iran held the eighth round of Astana meetings on 21 and 22 December 2017 with the participation of the three "guarantors," the Syrian opposition and the Syrian regime's delegations, representatives of the United States, the United Nations and Jordan as observers. The meeting stressed in its final statement the transfer of the solution in Syria to "Sochi" Conference which Russia sought hard to promote it.

Which was scheduled for 30 January, 2018 in Sochi resort along the Black Sea, and it was interrupted by the Syrian opposition, the United States, Britain and France. Among its most prominent outputs is the agreement on the formation of De-escalation zones in Syria, including Idlib and parts of Aleppo, Latakia and Homs and the quest to establish a committee to rewrite the Syrian constitution.

But the secret and most important deal at those meetings was Afrin deal in exchange for the Eastern Ghouta, which was conducted by a Turkish-Russian agreement, under which Turkey launched on 20 January 2018 a ground and air attack on Afrin canton under the so-called "Olive Branch."

Summit of Ankara

The presidents of Turkey, Iran and Russia held a tripartite summit in Ankara on April 4, 2018 in order to continue the search for the settlement of differences under the deals they had concluded together under their personal interests after several negotiations and discussions, none of which ended the war.

The summit ended with some public items according to its final statement, including the continued cooperation of the three countries on the solution of the Syrian issue in order to achieve a permanent cease-fire in Syria and the call for the international community and the United Nations to increase humanitarian assistance. The next summit held in Tehran.

Tehran Summit

On September 7, 2018, a summit was held in Tehran which brought together the presidents of Iran, Turkey and Russia to resolve the fate of Idlib province, the last largest stronghold of the Syrian opposition, in which Ankara called for being calm, while Moscow and Tehran insisted on the need for the battle. While the final statement was made on the separation of the "opposition from terrorism" to avoid leaving casualties among the civilians in Idlib at the start of the battle, but the summit failed without any clear agreements and solutions.

Putin and Erdogan's summit in Sochi

After the failure of the Tehran summit because of the differences of the Turkish and Russian agendas on the issue of settlement in Idlib, the parties did not reach a solution that satisfied the interests of all the forces participating in the meeting. It was followed by a bilateral summit which brought together Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Teyyip Erdogan in Sochi on 17 September, 2018 on the fate of Syrian Idlib. The summit ended with reaching understandings to establish a demilitarized zone in the province of Idlib, and abandon the military action plan.

Astana 9 and the absence of the American delegation for the first time

On 14 and 15 May 2018, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan announced the holding of the ninth round of Astana meetings on the Syrian crisis in its country, with the participation of Turkey, Russia and Iran together with the Syrian regime and the opposition. While the delegation of the United States of America refused to attend this round.

The US absence from Astana's consultations coincided with the Iranian-American escalation after the collapse of the nuclear agreement announced by the US President Donald Trump. The observers considered at the time that the absence of the US role for the first time in the consultations Astana means that the United States is not interested in any agreements made by Russia or Turkey or Iran on the Syrian territory, noting that Washington may disrupt any of the decisions of such conferences.

The meeting concluded without any significant progress towards resolving the conflict, and the participants stressed the continued work on establishing De-escalation zones and its protection, and the protection of the cease-fire system in Syria, stressing the unity of the Syrian territory and the safe arrival of aid.

Astana 10

On July 30, 2018, the tenth round of the two-day Astana talks launched  with the participation of the so-called Guarantor States and representatives of the Syrian regime and the opposition. The meeting was held in the Sochi resort, concluding without any concrete or desirable results to clarify the fate of Idlib or the detainees.

Syrian South Deal

During 2018, for the first time since more than seven years, regional and international forces with contradicted interests on the Syrian conflict have met to support the return of the Syrian regime forces exclusively to the strategic southern region of the country.

The deal was agreed upon in talks between Russia and Israel on the one hand and the United States and Jordan on the other hand. The Syrian regime took control of Daraa and Quneitra provinces, adjacent to the Israeli and Jordanian borders in exchange for the removal of the Iranian forces 30 to 60 kilometers from the Israeli border, while the opposition gunmen and their families were deported to north-west of Syria towards Idlib and Afrin occupied by Turkey.

Chemical attack on Duma and the triple strike on the regime

On April 7, 2018, the Islam Army mercenaries who control the city of Duma, through their political official, accused the Syrian regime of launching a chemical attack on the civilians in the eastern city of Duma, killing 100 people and injuring others.

America, Ivory Coast, France, Kuwait, the Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Sweden and Britain called for an emergency meeting to discuss the suspected use of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime in Duma. While the US State Department called for an international response if it would be proven that the regime was involved in the chemical bombardment.

On April 14, the United States, Britain and France sent more than 100 strikes to Syria targeting the military sites and foundations for making weapons.

The convention of the establishment of a demilitarized zone in Idlib

After the failure of all the tracks of Astana and Sochi to find a solution to Idlib's file, the Turkish and Russian presidents returned to hold a bilateral summit in Sochi resort of Russia on  September 17, 2018 during which Putin announced their decision to establish a "demilitarized zone" with a width of 15 to 20 kilometers along the line of contact between the regime's forces and Turkish mercenaries in Idlib, and that it would be implemented by October 15.

But this agreement did not hold up and did not make any progress on the ground because Turkey could not persuade Jabhet al-Nusra to get out of the region.

Astana 11

On November 28, 2018, the eleventh round of Astana meetings began on the Syrian crisis which ended as usual with the failure of the participants to reach an agreement on the constitutional committee which was considered by the UN envoy to Syria Stephan De Mistura "a wasted opportunity."

Istanbul Quartet Summit

On October 27, 2018, the Istanbul Quartet meeting on Syria was held with the participation of the Presidents of Turkey; Recep Teyyip Erdogan, Russia; Vladimir Putin, France; Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the Wahd al-Din Palace in Istanbul. It concluded by stressing the need to launch the work of the constitutional commission in Geneva, and stressed its support for the Russian-Turkish agreement on Idlib

While the summit encouraged Erdogan and through Lavrov's remarks in which he described the northern Syrian "separatist" to launch attacks by Turkey on the Syrian north. Where Turkey launched after this summit attacks on the border areas in the north of Syria in Kobanî, Girê Spî, Manbij and Serê Kanîyê.

The American-Turkish agreement on Manbij

After the tension in the relations between America and Turkey because of the conflict in Syria, and the Turkish refusal to support the International Alliance for the fight against terrorism, support the Syrian Democratic Forces and the People Protection Units to eliminate IS, and Turkey's threats to attack the city of Manbij liberated from IS, the United States and Turkey reached an agreement on a road map on joint cooperation to ensure security and stability in Manbij city.

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