U.S. research center warns Syria could turn into Libya

The American research center, the Atlantic Council, warned today that Syria could become a version of Libya if international attention remains absent. The report noted that the U.S. is still militarily committed in Syria, but in a limited and increasingly fragile capacity, with a small number of U.S. forces coordinating with local partners, primarily focused on countering ISIS and preventing its return.

The Council explained that the U.S. mission in Syria is limited to fighting "terrorism" only, without a comprehensive national strategy, and that the political framework lacks a clear goal beyond the continued defeat of ISIS. This situation has persisted amid repeated debates in Washington across administrations and Congress about the mission's duration, legal basis, and strategic value.

The report highlighted that last week the U.S. withdrew from al-Tanf base near the Syria-Iraq-Jordan border, handing over control to the provisional government.

The Council emphasized that wars rarely end just because of exhaustion, and the danger lies not only in U.S. withdrawal from Syria but in leaving at the wrong moment, which could pave the way for collapse similar to Libya.

It noted that Syria is not Libya currently—political clashes, timing, and outcomes differ—but comparisons continue due to structural risks revealed by Libya’s collapse.

There are reasons for both caution and hope: violence has declined from its peak, regional diplomacy has cautiously resumed, some areas enjoy stability previously unimaginable, some refugees are returning, and Gulf countries are exploring reconstruction and reintegration efforts.

Syria retains a fragile network of government institutions, defined borders, and a population accustomed to central authority, providing a framework that could support stability, though not a permanent guarantee.

On ISIS, the Atlantic Council noted that its regional defeat in March 2019, with the fall of its last stronghold in Al-Baghuz by the Syrian Democratic Forces, was a real achievement. However, dismantling the caliphate does not equate to eliminating the “organization,” which remains decentralized, operating in small mobile cells exploiting gaps between competing authorities, relying on assassinations, bombings, prison escapes, and extortion in areas without direct authority.

The Council warned that Syria faces the same risks as Libya, where extremist groups exploited ungoverned gaps. Libya’s failure resulted from competition among armed factions, weak national institutions, and the absence of an agreed monopoly on force.

The report concluded that avoiding a Libya-like scenario in Syria does not require prolonged wars but demands a careful sequence of steps: integrating security before withdrawal, ensuring legitimate institutions assume responsibility, coordinating regional actors around containment rather than competition, and noting that premature withdrawal often transfers risks to weaker actors and may eventually rebound on the U.S. itself.

ANHA