Presidential vacancy in Lebanon continues; Gaza war complicates the scene

“Despite foreign initiatives, discussions, tours, and delegations seeking to break the presidential deadlock and elect a president of the country in Lebanon, the prevailing scenario remains for the closure of the House of Assembly to elect a president. The situation has been further complicated by the clashes on the southern Lebanese front between Hezbollah and Israel since the outbreak of the Gaza war, placing the solution in the presidential file beyond this war.

Since the expiration of the mandate of former Lebanese President Michel Aoun on 31 October,2022, the Assembly has held dozens of meetings to elect a new president without success.

On the ground, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nabih Berri, insists that the solution lies in a dialogue between the political parties, in order to find a certain compromise or a third candidate before calling for new hearings, which the opposition rejects as a constitutional and extra-legal violation.”

The election of a president in Lebanon is directly linked to the cessation of the Gaza war.

Despite Lebanese positions that the presidential file should not be linked to the war between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah has supported Gaza since 8 October 8, in its war through military operations and daily fighting between it and Israel in the south. This negatively reflects on the Lebanese interior in all files, particularly in the presidential file.

There is no doubt that the countries of the region have been affected by the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, but Lebanon loses every day by opening it to the South Front, with the destruction of southern villages, the killing of civilians, and the displacement of the people of the South. Political sources told ANHA's agency that the continuation of the war on the South Front will not bring the presidential entitlement out of its impasse, but will put it in the midst of continued obstruction. The presidential initiatives put forward are formal and will not change the realities of the crisis.

Retired pilot pillar, André Bu Muasher, speaking in this context to ANHA's agency, linked the solution in Gaza and Lebanon to three levels; at the military level, Bu Muasher said: The ceasefire by Hamas cannot be achieved without Iran's consent.

At the level of negotiation, Bu Muasher believes that negotiations cannot be reached without Qatar and Egypt. The political track is tied to Saudi intervention. There can be no political solution without Saudi Arabia.

Bu Muasher added that a ceasefire must lead to the beginning of a political solution, or else the situation will resume its course. He noted: A compromise must be reached between Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, and Iran to reach a solution; otherwise, we will remain in a state of disarray, and Israel will thus benefit from the situation to strengthen its negotiating terms and luck.

The battle is more ideological than military.

Bu Muasher saw that victory cannot be achieved with all this loss of life and property, and the ultimate end of the battle remains more ideological than military.

On the issue of the presidency, Bu Muasher believes that Hezbollah continues to support the candidate Suleiman Franjieh, in line with its political, military, and strategic interests and guarantees, while going towards dialogue or a third candidate is not ready for this step and is not in its favor at this delicate stage in the country. It will not proceed with a candidate whose policy is contrary to the resistance policy and approach.

Bu Muasher asserted that Lebanon was a provision associated with the Gaza Front, and that Hezbollah could separate the presidency from the south if it were settled on the election of its candidate, Sleiman Franjieh. Otherwise, it was a waste of time.

In a question about who owns the resolution in Lebanon, Bu Muasher noted: No political party has a free hand in decision-making, and each party is linked to its foreign agenda and personal interests.

Is Saudi Arabia the key to the presidential solution?

According to Bu Muasher, Saudi Arabia's political track record remains strong, and its direct involvement in the presidential file could help push for the election of a president by offering incentives and guarantees to political parties in line with their interests. No regional player can guarantee a presidential settlement other than Saudi Arabia.

Bu Muasher stated that the main problem was that the Christian players in Lebanon, the Lebanese Forces Party and the Free Patriotic Movement, had failed to agree on a candidate that would persuade the other parties, which had not yet been achieved, and would hinder the achievement of the election of a president through democratic means.

The Free Patriotic Movement can proceed with the nomination of Franjieh in line with certain guarantees and incentives; it can match the size of this concession, as can the Lebanese Forces and other parties that oppose Franjieh's arrival in the presidency.

Bu Muasher believes that Hezbollah has two rationales: rejection and imposition; it cannot impose a president, but it can reject a particular candidate, and therefore who can impose the president is Saudi Arabia and America by providing certain guarantees to the political parties.

With regard to the dialogue proposed by the Speaker of the House of Assembly, Nabih Berri, to resolve the presidential crisis, Bu Muasher believes that Berri is the sole proprietor of the dialogue and decides on the outcome of any political movement.

In the history of Lebanon, no president has come to power except through regional backing and international efforts. External intervention remains the largest factor in the election of the president. This indicates that Lebanon lacks sovereignty and dignity. The movements, efforts, delegations, and initiatives are left in the form of formalities. We must look at the presidential scenes, where personal guarantees are made for the achievement of this presidential settlement in accordance with the interests of each political group.

T/ Satt.

ANHA