Number of people in need of humanitarian assistance in Syria expected to rise to 6 million

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) reported that parts of North-East and North-West Syria continue to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity, projecting that these conditions will extend to Latakia Governorate starting in October.

The network said that the improved harvest season has not translated into better conditions for poor households, as most of the benefits were concentrated among better-off families, while a significant share of other households' income was used to repay debts. It added that displaced people and households that have lost their sources of income continue to face limited employment opportunities, leaving food consumption gaps unresolved.

The report also noted that flooding along the Euphrates River in May damaged agricultural land and irrigation networks in Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa governorates. In addition, widespread fires destroyed crops that were still standing during the peak of the harvest season, further worsening living conditions in Suwayda Governorate and pushing more households into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity.

The network projected that Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity will persist across North-East and North-West Syria through January 2027, with Latakia Governorate expected to enter this phase beginning in October. It attributed the outlook to declining seasonal incomes, rising costs of agricultural inputs and winter preparations, as well as reduced revenues from agriculture and tourism, all of which are expected to widen food consumption gaps among poor households as the winter lean season approaches.

The report noted that the deteriorating economic situation continues to undermine the purchasing power of households that rely on markets. It said the Syrian pound lost around 15% of its value between April and June, while higher fuel prices drove up transportation and food costs. It also noted that the government reduced subsidized bread allocations twice within a six-week period.

The network stressed that the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance is expected to peak between October 2026 and January 2027, reaching between 5 million and 5.99 million. It explained that improved agricultural production has not been sufficient to offset the effects of the economic downturn and the loss of livelihoods, particularly among poor and displaced households in North-East and North-West Syria, which continue to struggle to meet their basic food needs.