Fall of Baath and rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as dominant Syrian force - Part I

The so-called “Deterrence of Aggression” battle was launched by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra) on November 27, 2024, in the context of major regional and international shifts that altered the balance of power in the region — including the war in Gaza and Israel’s war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as other actors in neighboring states.

Rapid Attacks and the Regime's Collapse Under Regional Shifts

The battle marked a significant turning point, occurring at a time when Iran and Hezbollah had a large presence in Syria. However, their presence diminished with the fall of the Baath regime, and the current whereabouts of these forces remain unknown — whether they redeployed or withdrew entirely.

Before the regime’s collapse, at the height of the war, estimates indicated that Iran, through the IRGC and allied forces, along with Hezbollah and foreign fighters, had deployed tens of thousands of loyal combatants in support of the Syrian regime.

At their peak, these forces numbered between 20,000 and 30,000 fighters, including several thousand ideological foreign fighters — from the IRGC, Hezbollah, and other Shiite factions — who were not part of Syria’s regular military.

Operations began in western Aleppo countryside, and within just 48 hours, the Baath regime lost most of its control in western and southern Aleppo countryside, followed by wide areas in eastern Idlib.

In early December 2024, the attacking forces led by HTS fully captured Aleppo — a development that dealt a heavy and shocking blow to the Baath regime, forcing it to retreat toward Hama province.

On December 5, 2024, Hama also fell, leaving the Baath regime confined to Damascus, Homs, and parts of Daraa and Quneitra.

Southern Factions Enter the Scene, and Damascus Comes Under Pressure

In southern Syria, local factions in Daraa moved under the leadership of Ahmad al-Awda, who — despite his “reconciliation” with Russia — retained significant military and security influence that enabled him to lead a sweeping campaign in early December. This resulted in local forces taking control of Daraa city and its countryside, with regime forces gradually withdrawing from the entire southern region.

At the same time, HTS launched attacks on Homs, prompting regime forces to withdraw without battle, leaving Damascus as the last major stronghold of the former Baath regime.

Concurrently, Russia, Iran, and Turkey held a new round of Astana talks, agreeing to halt HTS operations at northern Homs countryside. Russian aircraft also bombed the al-Rastan bridge — a vital route linking Homs to Damascus. However, external actors outside the Astana process reportedly ordered HTS to continue advancing. The bridge was not significantly damaged, allowing HTS to keep pushing toward Damascus.

As the assault from southern Syria tightened the noose on the capital, the attacking forces announced their entry into Damascus on December 8, 2024, culminating in Bashar al-Assad’s flight to Moscow.

Despite the central role of southern factions in liberating Daraa and Sweida and entering Damascus first, Abu Mohammad al-Julani (later Ahmed al-Shar’a) and HTS received the bulk of Arab and Western media attention, overshadowing the southern factions’ role. HTS and al-Julani entered the capital on the afternoon of December 9.

Turkey-Backed Groups Seek Expansion, but SDF Blocks Their Advance

In the north, Turkey and its proxies sought to exploit the regime’s swift collapse and the nationwide chaos to expand their occupation of northern and eastern Syria. However, the Syrian Democratic Forces — maintaining organizational and ideological cohesion — repelled Turkish and proxy attacks on Manbij starting November 27, 2024.

On December 11, SDF commander-in-chief Mazloum Abdi announced a U.S.-mediated ceasefire to protect civilians in Manbij and withdraw from the city.

But Turkey continued escalating around Manbij’s countryside and the Tishrin Dam without making any breakthroughs, while the SDF held its defensive lines and prevented any change in control.

Despite Turkish pressure, the SDF expelled Baath regime forces from areas of Deir Ezzor countryside, including the seven villages, Al-Bukamal, Al-Mayadin, and Aleppo International Airport, as well as parts of Raqqa countryside, on December 7, 2024, fearing that ISIS remnants might exploit the regime’s collapse to launch attacks.

The SDF later withdrew from these areas once HTS approached them on December 9, to prevent ISIS from exploiting the chaos and security void.

Israel’s Fears After the Regime’s Fall… and the Destruction of Syria’s Military Arsenal

With the Baath regime’s collapse, Israel feared that HTS and allied factions might seize the regime's military arsenal. Citing national security concerns, Israel launched what it described as its “largest air operation” on December 11, 2024, striking military bases, strategic weapons depots, and airfields — including artillery, fighter jets, and coastal bases — destroying over 90% of the Baath military arsenal.

Although there are no precise statistics on what Israel destroyed, media reports say more than 120 military sites were hit.

Eight airports and air bases were also rendered completely inoperable, and over 30 strategic missile depots belonging to Iran and its militias were destroyed, with reports suggesting that more than 4,000 Iran- and Hezbollah-aligned fighters were killed or withdrawn from Syria.

Syria Without a Deterrent Army… and Israel Expands Its Control in the South

A year after the Baath regime’s fall, Syria now lacks any military institution (army – security – police), particularly after HTS dissolved the army and security agencies upon taking power. Instead, various armed groups and factions dominate the military landscape — loosely referred to as the “Syrian Army.”

Meanwhile, Israel has expanded its control beyond the 1974 disengagement zone created after the October War, and now seeks to establish a “buffer zone” encompassing the three southern provinces (Quneitra – Sweida – Daraa) as well as southern Damascus countryside. It has also seized the Syrian side of Mount Hermon and advanced to within 20 km of Damascus.

ANHA