Escalating tensions between Tehran, Washington: Scenarios remain open

According to Najmuddin, Iran's announcement of adopting the "exporting the revolution" project led to instability in the Gulf and Levant regions and created deep concerns for the Gulf states. This policy reflected in various regional fronts, including Hezbollah's presence in Lebanon, the growing Shiite influence in Iraq and Syria, and support for the Houthis in Yemen.

The Gulf region, at that time, remained one of the most critical zones of U.S. interests and military presence, making a clash between Washington and Tehran almost inevitable. This conflict has continued for decades without any real cessation.

Recent Military Escalation

Najmuddin points out that recent times have seen unprecedented escalation, including U.S. air and naval strikes against Iran, with Israel's participation through airstrikes. In retaliation, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel, a first of its kind, reaching deep into Israeli territory and causing panic and destruction. The Iranian response also extended to Qatar, home to the largest U.S. military base in the region, al-Udeid Air Base, marking a significant escalation.

Will War Break Out?

When asked whether U.S. President Donald Trump will initiate a new military operation against Iran, Najmuddin confirms that the answer is complex, with multiple scenarios. These range from direct strikes using U.S. aircraft carriers or strategic bombers near Iranian waters to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu potentially involving the U.S. in a broader confrontation with Iran. Another possibility is an unannounced third party igniting the escalation, pushing both sides into an open, uncontrolled conflict.

Possible Consequences

Najmuddin warns that the most dangerous consequences of any military strike would not only be fluctuations in oil prices but also military and security repercussions. Tehran has clearly stated that any attack on its territory would be considered a direct act of aggression, and it would respond by targeting all U.S. military and political interests in the region as legitimate targets.

He also expects Israel to directly engage in any conflict to create a new distraction from the Gaza war. Additionally, covert intelligence operations might occur, which Iran could interpret as U.S. attacks.

The Strait of Hormuz and the Specter of World War

Najmuddin emphasizes that one of the most dangerous scenarios is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, due to its direct impact on global shipping and trade. This could result in skyrocketing oil prices and chaos in global energy markets.

ANHA