An undeclared war in Lebanon

An undeclared war in Lebanon

Lebanon lives under the impact of Israeli threats, which confirm that war is inevitably coming to Lebanon, and that Hezbollah will be the next target after Hamas.

The director of the Lebanese Center for Research and Studies, Hassan Qutb, said in an interview with ANHA's agency that the Middle East region is experiencing a state of widespread war in Gaza and an undeclared war in Lebanon, as well as in the part of Yemen that is controlled by the Houthi group, which controls the entrance to the Red Sea.

Hassan Qutb added that Hezbollah, since the beginning of the Gaza war, opened the southern front to relieve pressure on the Gaza front, and it is adamant in its position that stopping the southern front from military operations is linked to stopping the war on Gaza.

In addition to occupying part of the Israeli forces, so that they remain on the northern front adjacent to the Lebanese border, which weakens the movement on the Gaza front and in the West Bank.

It was confirmed several times by Hezbollah leaders and the Secretary-General that the party has no intention of entering into an open war with Israel, but the development of confrontations between the two parties and the introduction of new types of lethal and more powerful weapons on the front, and the rush of both teams to target military and civilian sites deep inside... The Lebanese territories, as well as deep into the territories of Palestine, put us in front of a more present and more likely war scenario, which makes the movement of displacement and exodus on both sides of the border and the destruction of villages, farms and all property rise, and constitutes a war that pressures the two teams to enter into a decisive confrontation by changing the rules of engagement to also resolve the matter. This is what Hezbollah fears, with the unlimited strategic support from the United States of America and some European countries that consider Israel’s battle to be their battle, and thus provide it with all possible support politically in various international forums, especially the Security Council, and militarily by providing all types of weapons and ammunition required, to support Israel. In its open battle to ensure its control and impose its conditions on Palestine, Lebanon, and everyone who faces it in this open battle.

Have the goals of Israel and Hezbollah changed 8 months after the Gaza war?

Hassan Qutb believes that it is easy to declare the flame of war, but no party, no matter how strong, can realize or know when this war might end.

Qutb also explained: “Hezbollah’s goal in linking Lebanon’s skirmishes with the Gaza front is to confirm its presence in the region, alongside Gaza, and to emphasize that it stands with the slogan of unifying the arenas, even though the resistance factions in Gaza are dissatisfied with the performance of Iran’s Hezbollah, since These skirmishes are limited and will not change the scene of the confrontations taking place in Gaza.”

On the other hand, Israel realizes that Hezbollah does not want to enter into an open war, and this is confirmed by the statements of Hezbollah, which wants to limit the Gaza front before moving to the Lebanon front, and this is what Israel indicated, especially in the statements related to conducting simulations of military operations to invade Lebanon, The open battle in Gaza could be a prelude to moving towards a political solution, with Israel’s inability to resolve the battle militarily and the increase in global criticism of it, especially from European countries, regarding the Israeli crimes against Gaza, the destruction and killing of civilians, and its failure to submit to international laws, and this is what harmed Israel’s image before the world, in addition to, the steps of the International Court that issued arrest warrants against Netanyahu and the Minister of Defense, which made Israel more isolated than before, and made it difficult to convince the international community that it was right and that others were aggressing against it.

Qutb explained that Israel's rejection of the two-state solution so far confirms that it cannot live in peace and stability in this region.

The impact of the killing of Raisi and Abdullahian on the region?

Developments in the region are accelerating with great influence with the plane crash of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, who was touring the Tehran axis countries to draw up the Iranian strategy for confronting the US sanctions, as well as the Western blockade, and also to control the behavior of Iran’s allies in a way that does not drag the latter into open war.

Qutb said in this context that Iran wanted some skirmishes to confirm that it is active in the region and to highlight its role as the main player at the regional negotiating table to take a role in any possible settlement that may be on the horizon. He explained: “Therefore, after the departure of the Iranian President and Foreign Minister from the political scene, we may see a real change in Iran’s policy internally and externally, with the appointment of a new Foreign Minister and the election of a President of the Republic after the end of the time period stipulated by the Iranian Constitution.”

Qutb believes that monitoring the current Iranian changes may lead to following a new and changing political and military scene with the changing aspects required by changing Iranian policies. He added: "Hezbollah, for its part, considers itself the most affected by the absence of Raisi and Abdullahian, and after the killing of Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who represented Iran in implementing its policy within Hezbollah and the forces that revolve around it."

Qutb stated: “From here we stop at the Israeli preparations to launch a war on Lebanon, which has become advanced through its operations and destruction of Hezbollah’s military structure in various Lebanese territories, and its killing of its leaders, all the way to Syria in the Homs countryside and the city of Qusayr and its countryside.”

Qutb warns that the coming days will be dangerous and bring many changes, which means that Lebanon may witness a real change in the internal balance of power with the failure of negotiations and mediation, and with the advance of the possibility of war and the language of confrontation over the logic of peace and political solution inside Lebanon, and with the failure of the Five-Year Committee. Which seeks to search for a political solution to elect a president who will restore Lebanon’s position and give Hezbollah a political role away from any security involvement, whether on the Lebanese border or elsewhere within Lebanon.

T/ Satt.

ANHA