Russian expert Karim Haas: Erdogan did not achieve what he hoped for in Tehran

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in the Iranian capital Tehran as part of the Astana meetings in conjunction with the tenth anniversary of the Rojava revolution.

The meeting concluded with a joint final statement consisting of 16 items. The statement contained no steps to resolve the Syrian crisis. Like Astana's earlier statements, it has deepened the Syrian crisis and increased Turkish attacks. Despite repeated statements by the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria to resolve the Syrian crisis, no steps are being taken in this direction.

Speaking about the Tehran meeting, which had made the Turkish occupying state an opportunity to launch a new occupation offensive against north and east Syria and the text of the 16-item joint final communiqué, ANHA’s agency held a dialogue with Russian affairs specialist Dr. Karim Haas.

"Iran has opposed Turkey's new operation in Syria more than Russia, Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi statements after the meeting have intensified. The Turkish "operation" was described in Khamenei's statement as an attack. He sent stronger and clearer messages. Because of the Ukrainian war, there is no external actor interested in Syria's new military operation, which has changed the balance and situation on the ground to such a situation other than Erdogan and the Assad administration. The situation is very difficult, there is no position to make new progress, there will be no exchange and there will be no crisis ".

Karim Haas noted the unwillingness of the United States, Russia, Iran, Israel and Damascus to change the current situation in Syria and continued: "There has been no significant change in Syrian airspace militarily since March 2020. Conflicts have taken place, but there has been no serious change on the ground. There has been a situation since 2020. The continuation of this situation is therefore highly needed by the United States of America, Russia, Iran, the Assad regime and Israel. That is why Iranian forces are stationed in the axis of Manbij and Tel Rifaat, particularly in the area of Tel Rifaat, or that pro-Iranian groups have increased their influence over their militias there, where there are also Shi 'a. Russia is also likely to relocate some of its troops to those locations to prevent the Turkish military operation. "

Haas also drew Iran's opposition to Turkey's new occupation attack more than Russia and pointed to Iran's directing a more serious warning to Erdogan.

Haas assessed the Russian statement, saying: "Putin criticized the American side and said that the separatist movements and the theft of Syrian oil were being supported. But when Russian officials asked about the possible Turkish operation a month ago, Alexander Lavrentiev and other Russian officials said, "We call on Ankara not to carry out the new military operation, as it can create much greater conflicts and risks." I felt that the tone of those statements had decreased in Putin's statements. They could have spoken with Erdogan in a tougher tone behind the doors, but Russia and Iran tried to persuade Erdogan not to do any work. "

"Russia's need for allies has increased."

Karim Haas commented on why Putin's opposition reaction to the possible Turkish offensive has decreased, saying: "One of the main reasons for this is the cold war between Russia and the Western world because of the Ukrainian war. A new wall was built between them. Russia's need for its global neighbours and allies has also increased. Western companies leave the Russian market almost every day. Many Turkish companies replace them with cheaper and easier new measures and seek to participate in the Russian economic market. Russia needs this, and it is also an opportunity for Turkish businessmen. "

Karim Haas noted that if Erdogan insists on launching a new occupation offensive, Russia will not strongly oppose it, and continued: "Russian opposition to Erdogan's will decreased after 24 February."

Haas continued: "The unequal relationship between Turkey and Russia has not been in line with the Turkish interest for years, but as I said, the difference has receded as Erdogan wishes. I don't think Turkey needs a military operation of this kind. But if Erdogan thinks of increasing his vote by one or two percent in order to maintain his political survival, escalate national intolerance, gather votes around him and conceal somehow the economic problems "to what extent" he could undertake an adventure of this kind before the election, the risk is present. It will emerge in the future at Erdogan's insistence. "

Haas referred to the Russian position in Syria and the current situation: "When Russia intervened militarily in Syria in 2015, it did not intervene to protect Kurds from Turks. I don't think the implementation of an operation of this kind based on negotiations on a "give-and-give" basis. Here Moscow will consider the benefits that the potential process will bring to it. Could it create a crisis in Turkey's relations with America or not, it would think about it. There is no doubt that it does not want a confrontation between Iran and Turkey, which is one of the reasons for Moscow's opposition to Erdogan starting a new movement. Because the problem could lead to a direct confrontation between the Turkish army and pro-Iranian groups. It is possible that they cannot control this conflict, and the risks can increase, so they do not want to. "

Karim Haas also said: "Russia does not want to sever its relations with Turkey because of Kobani, Manbij or any limited military operation. I don't think it has such luxury. "

Haas commented on Russian policy in Syria, saying: "I don't think Russia has plans to overthrow Assad in the years to come. At the same time, Russia seeks to maintain its military presence or strategic military influence in the eastern Mediterranean through its military bases. These are red lines for Russia. There is no doubt, therefore, that the current problems are proceeding in a balance based on trade-offs.”

Haas said Erdogan had not achieved what he had hoped for at the Tehran meeting but had strengthened his image in domestic politics. Commenting on Erdogan's statement, he said: "The summit was broadcast live, in my opinion this was very strange and surprising. Astana's meetings in Ankara and Moscow do not broadcast as such, but those in Tehran have been broadcast as such for two years. If you saw these meetings, both the Presidents and Putin spoke briefly, while Erdogan spoke at length during the press conference as well as at the beginning of the summit. He has always referred to the Democratic Union Party PYD, the People's Protection Units YPG and the Kurdistan Workers' Party PKK. Erdogan's understanding of terrorism in Syria is Kurdish, so when he focuses on this at a time when it is being broadcast live in Turkey, it can improve his image in Turkey. "

Karim Haas noted that no mention was made of Kurds, the People's Protection Units YPJ and the Democratic Union Party PYD in the text of the 16-item joint final communiqué issued after the meeting.

Haas said: "Even after searching the written text, Turkey has not achieved what it hoped. It is noted that the resolution of the Syrian issue must be through political diplomacy rather than military means. He was able to create an image similar to the one that occurred during Sweden and Finland's membership of NATO in domestic politics ".

Erdogan said after his visit to Iran: "America is forced out of eastern Euphrates. This is the result confirmed by Operation Astana ".

Karim Haas commented: "Erdogan said America should withdraw from Syria as soon as possible. There is also a demand for this, but when Erdogan says that means let America withdraw and replace me and when Putin and Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi say that they are seeking to bring territories not controlled by the Assad regime under his control. At least along the border line. Everyone understands this according to his own grasp. In view of the written text of the statement, we believe that reference is made to terrorism, and Russia is grateful for this. "

There's no agreement in Astana.

In conclusion, Karim Haas noted that the 16-item final communiqué was somewhat like its predecessors and said: "What is important now is that the continuation of these meetings is beneficial to these three forces, not because they agreed on something. I don't think there is any subject agreed by the three actors at the Astana meeting, especially Erdogan. But that does not necessarily mean that these three forces have been weakened. Especially with the Ukrainian war, Biden's visit to the Middle East, attempts to build new alliances in the region against Iran, is support for the continuation of this tripartite alliance. "

T/S

ANHA