Terrorism researcher: ISIS still exists across 12 branches throughout region

Hawar News Agency held an interview with the Egyptian researcher specializing in the affairs of Islamic and terrorist groups, Ahmed Ban, about the resurgence of ISIS mercenaries' activity in the Syrian Badia, Iraq, and also North Africa.

The text of the dialogue is as follows:

* The Syrian desert and northern Africa were the next destination for ISIS to emerge after the geographical defeat that it suffered, to what do you attribute this matter? Why did it choose desert areas to be active again?

It was natural for ISIS to choose Syria, North Africa and desert regions to be new places to reposition in the framework of the organization's plan to restructure and adapt to the military defeat it received in the heart or the main region in which it established its state in Syria and Iraq, and therefore the idea of ​​bias towards the desert and an attempt to establishing outposts in new areas was its strategy for adapting to the military defeat and pressures it faced.

* Will the organization intend to remain in hiding, or will it establish the caliphate project again?

I do not think that the organization will disappear, ISIS still exists, there are more than 12 branches spread in separate regions such as Sinai, Yemen, Africa, Nigeria region, the vicinity of Lake Chad, Central Africa, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, East Africa, Somalia and the state of Khorasan in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Southeast Asia, the Philippines, the Caucasus, Libya and Tunisia, even Al-Baghdadi had announced before his death the establishment of branches of the organization in Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and thus the organization has an ambition to survive and its ability to adapt is still great.

The idea of ​​ISIS to establish a new caliphate is natural because the caliphate is a central idea of ​​the organization, and therefore it will not abandon it because it is one of the sources of its legitimacy for the supporters, and therefore I imagine that it will seek to restore the caliphate even if it establishes it in a focus that seems appropriate in its political, social and geographical context for this.

* As its geographical area, rich in oil and energy sources shrank, what is focus of its financing?

The organization built an extensive financial supply network during its time in Iraq, and some intelligence reports may have shed light on the methods of building this financial strength and the methods of passage of financing and arming.

Unfortunately, the organization still possesses financial destinations and networks that enable it to compensate for its losses, and strive to build financial capacity in view of its previous financial capacity, and its spread in many places even after its control over many places of oil decreased, because oil was not the only source of funding for the organization.

* After the defeat it suffered more than two years ago, what are the priorities of ISIS today?

The organization's priorities are repositioning in new arenas, establishing new outposts, recruiting more followers, and continuing the strategy of so-called spite and attrition of regular armies and security groups, and this is well evident in Syria and Iraq, and those who follow the organization’s operations discover that operations have escalated even after its military defeat and loss of the state. Thus, its priorities are repositioning and restoring its financial networks, building new recruitment networks, and stimulating more elements who believe in the organization’s ideology and the so-called lone wolves to keep it in the influence and ability to recruit.

* Is it possible that the policy of US President-elect Joe Biden will pump blood into the veins of dead ISIS, similar to former US President Barack Obama, representing the Democratic Party as well?

Biden's victory, I do not think has a direct link, but the policies of the United States undoubtedly affect the organization specifically in the Iraqi file and the ability of the United States to intervene in Iraqi affairs, and to push in the direction of strengthening the civil state structures and moving away from the strategy of marginalizing the year that took place in the past, and empowering Iran to control Iraq greatly contributed to the emergence of the ideology of ISIS, through which it began as if it was defending the Sunnis in Iraq, and thus was able to attract more followers and more attendance; thus, the new American strategy that Biden may reveal may have considerable impact in the presence of the organization, its influence, and then its presence on the Iraqi scene again.

We are still facing a problem related to the failure to build a unified international strategy to deal with the organization, and when everyone reacted to the collapse of the organization, this contributed to the collapse of its state and the decline of its power to a large extent, and in the end it plays on international and regional contradictions and contradictions within the same country.

* What is ISIS strategy at this stage?

ISIS's current strategy, as I said, is to reposition and restore its financial structures, rebuild recruitment networks, and strive to recruit more individual wolf members, with the aim of being on the terrorist scene and influencing and pushing toward recruiting more followers.

The lessons of 2007 and 2008 tell us that the organization was able in the past, with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, to restore its groups even after the collapse of its organization due to the so-called Sahwat, which was a successful start in the siege of the organization, but it regained its existence and structure in a better way and began in the year 2014 as we saw in declaring its state, and its influence until the moment its state collapsed in 2019 with the assassination of Al-Baghdadi, thus it will seek to rebuild its capabilities and influence again.

J.O

ANHA