A political researcher: Idlib attacks are a Russian-Turkish understanding, they can't make a deal

Tensions have escalated in Syria, where idlib areas  witnessed fierce fighting,  that was followed by meetings between delegations from Russia, Turkey and the regime in Moscow, amid the talk of a new deal.

After that, Malek al-Hafez , a Syrian political researcher and journalist spoke to Hawar news agency.

Al-Hafez began his speech saying, “Russia and the Syrian regime escalation in Idlib follows the end of the 14^th round of the Astana meetings, where its final statement called for the implementation of the agreements on the De-escalation zone in Idlib, the most important of which was  Sochi declaration between Russia and Turkey (September 2018(.”

He added, “In my assessment,  the regime forces progress with its ally Russia is taking place in accordance to Moscow and Ankara understanding at the expense of  the civilians in the demilitarized zone, where Turkey holds a large part of the responsibility because of its failure to solve the problem of Jabhet al-Nusra's presence in the region on one hand, since Russia considers al-Nusra as pretext for targeting the countryside of idlib.”

Al-Hafez continued, “On the other hand, Turkey has its own interests, which  affected the targeted area; in other words,  Idlib was present in the Russian-Turkish understandings on the east of the Euphrates, and the equation of influence sharing and expansion in both regions imposed the scenario and will impose future developments in Idlib in particular.”

About Moscow meetings, al-Hafez said, “The meetings that have taken place in Moscow recently come in the framework of the region papers arrangement in the coming period, and I think that escalation will return to the axes of fighting in the region after the truce that  the talk has been about since Tuesday evening.”

He added, “It has been clear since a long time that Russia is seeking  to control the international roads, which means that the arrival of the regime forces to Ma'rat al-Numan is a matter of time in accordance with the Agreements of Astana and Sochi. They may even reach other areas during the coming period, including Saraqeb and Jericho, and  the areas along  the international road M5 to arrive to the axes of Jisr al-Shughour area later.”

Relating to the possibility of making a deal, the political researcher pointed out, “The final deal on the region cannot be done at the moment only between the Russian and Turkish parties , in the presence of all the forces involved in the Syrian file. This will unfortunately guarantee the future of the region and the struggle to have influence in it. For the time being, the developments do not exceed the level of understandings and consensuses, that can be updateable and under developing according to the new changes that affect directly and indirectly the rest of the forces in the Syrian file.”

Relating to Walid al-Muallem's remarks, al-Hafiz said, “Al-Muallem's speech indicates that there is nothing new on this level. Damascus has always been intransigent,  regarding the dialogue with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and this was expressed in the two previous rounds of talks, and it does not want to negotiate with SDF, as much as it wants to put them under control and force them for the acceptance of its terms and standards, which are reflected in the regime's military vision of returning the regions to pre-2011, i.e. neither autonomous administration, nor enabling the Autonomous Administration economic and administrative governance of the region.”

He added, “Al-Muallem's speech indicates clearly that the regime does not want any rapprochement in the form that Democratic Syria is proposing. It is generally unable to impose control there and will rely on the Russians in this file, as it relied on them and handed them all the issues of the Syrian file. As for Russia, it is not in a hurry for any final consensus to occur between SDF and the regime. It is willing to apply Daraa model in east of the Euphrates areas, which means the result of the organized chaos, seeking to prolong it until reaching a final solution in accordance with its own vision that marks the end of all military operations and the struggle of influence in the north.”

The political researcher concluded, “There can be no deal at the moment between the two parties in the presence of the U.S. forces in eastern Syria, to which al-Muallem also indicated in his speech, which was aired by Russia Today. Where he pointed out that the talks did not reach the political dimension because of the U.S. presence, and Washington's swinging support for the Democratic Syria, a common point that disturbs both the regime and Moscow.”

A.J

ANHA