ISIS attacks surge in Syria after fall of Baath regime

The frequency of ISIS cell attacks has increased across many Syrian regions since the fall of the Baath regime on December 8, 2024, and the formation of a transitional government led by Ahmad al-Shar’a, who previously led Jabhat al-Nusra—an al-Qaeda affiliate—before renaming it Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and announcing its separation from al-Qaeda.

Since the beginning of the year, ISIS cells have carried out around 224 attacks through targeted killings, bombings, and ambushes. These attacks resulted in the martyrdom of 68 fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the deaths of 15 civilians, and the killing of 13 ISIS mercenaries, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The European Center for Counter-terrorism and Intelligence Studies considers ISIS to remain one of the most prominent global security threats, despite more than half a decade having passed since the collapse of the so-called “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria.

The center’s report notes that recent years show that military defeat did not translate into organizational or ideological collapse; instead, it pushed ISIS into a new phase of operational decentralization, intelligence concealment, and rebuilding of transnational networks.

In this context, Director of the Kurdish Center for Studies Nawaf Khalil explained that the most significant security and political changes driving the rise in ISIS attacks since the beginning of the year stem from the fall of the Baath regime. This created a security vacuum that enabled ISIS cells to move easily across larger geographic areas, seize weapons, and recruit new members. He said: “ISIS benefited greatly from the fall of the regime.”

He added that another factor is that the current transitional government is not combating ISIS effectively, and that armed factions are providing ISIS cells with a safe environment to carry out attacks and move freely.

Regions controlled by the transitional government are witnessing major security chaos; since the beginning of November alone, around 141 people have been killed, according to the Syrian Observatory, which described them as severe human losses stemming from criminal and retaliatory incidents, sectarian violence, and explosions caused by war remnants.

The European Center for Counter-terrorism and Intelligence Studies also stated that the weak control of the new transitional government, along with ongoing sectarian violence, may further enhance ISIS’s capabilities, allowing the militants to reorganize, maintain their presence, and possibly expand again.

Nawaf Khalil confirmed that ISIS has acquired a strong organizational and geographical structure and now enjoys favorable conditions in many Syrian areas, especially in Deir ez-Zor, where militant groups such as Ahrar al-Sharqiya—led by Abu Hatim Shaqra, who is on the US sanctions list for killing Kurdish politician Hevrin Khalaf.

ISIS cells have launched around 180 attacks in Deir ez-Zor alone since the beginning of the year, with noticeably increased activity in the western countryside, destabilizing the region and raising real security fears of a resurgence following ISIS’s defeat in its last stronghold in Baghouz.

Nine ISIS attacks on SDF positions in Deir ez-Zor were recorded within one week.

The Syrian Observatory has also documented an increase in ISIS graffiti appearing across various parts of Syria, signaling renewed activity despite repeated security campaigns. On November 23, threatening messages such as “The Islamic State is Coming” were found on walls of buildings and schools in Ghadir Bustan village in Quneitra countryside, though the perpetrators could not be identified.

Between November 24–27, US Central Command forces discovered more than 15 ISIS sites in southern Syria within transitional government-held areas. These sites contained weapon caches and quantities of narcotics. They destroyed around 130 shells, machine guns, mines, anti-tank weapons, and improvised explosive device materials.

Nawaf Khalil noted that most factions within the Ministry of Defense of the transitional government in Damascus are extremist Islamist groups, including mercenary fighters such as those of the so-called “Syrian National Army,” enabling ISIS to benefit from them—whether ideologically aligned or motivated by money.

Khalil added that despite ISIS’s centralized decision-making and ideology, the group allows flexibility for anyone who believes in its ideology to carry out attacks individually or collectively without coordination, with ISIS later claiming responsibility. Such patterns resemble attacks that occurred in the United States and Europe.

The European Center for Counter-terrorism and Intelligence Studies states that although ISIS lost territory and resources, it has not lost its ability to adapt and regenerate, whether through sleeper cells or affiliate branches across Asia, Africa, and Europe.

Khalil believes ISIS’s primary goal is to remain alive and strong, acting whenever opportunities arise to attack, kill, spread fear, and keep the situation in a constant state of tension.

He said ISIS militants are awaiting a major opportunity to establish what they call the “Islamic Caliphate,” after its collapse at the hands of the SDF in coordination with the international coalition.

He added that the “big opportunity” ISIS is hoping for may arise from inter-factional warfare among groups affiliated with the transitional government’s Ministry of Defense, or from new attacks on North and East Syria. Until then, ISIS will continue launching small-scale attacks through cells using bombings, kidnappings, killings, and fundraising.

Nawaf Khalil emphasized that all indications show a new transformation in ISIS’s structure, aided by Syria’s current security situation and ease of movement.

The Director of the Kurdish Center for Studies confirmed that ISIS obtained weapons and funds after the fall of the Baath regime, explaining the recent escalation in its attacks and the shift in its operational patterns and organizational structure.

Estimates from the European Center for Counter-terrorism and Intelligence Studies indicate that more than 4,000 ISIS militants remain active in Syria and Iraq, posing an ongoing threat.

ANHA