Russian shelling of ISIS in Syrian Desert did not meet goals  

ISIS and its affiliates continue launching their attacks against Syrian Government forces on daily basis, especially in the Syrian Desert. According to information obtained by SOHR, on June 5th, 23 Syrian soldiers were killed in ISIS attack on various parts of Syrian lands, via ambushes and mines of ISIS mercenary cells deployed in Homs Desert,  Hama Desert and Deir ez-Zor – Raqqa Desert.

Despite having lost most of its territory in Syria, in particular, the last stronghold in Baghuz town, a village in the eastern countryside of Deir-ez-Zor on March 23rd, 2019, but ISIS was able to revive again in large swaths of the Syrian lands, and has begun to carry out intensive attacks against Syrian government forces and loyalist groups in those areas.

ISIS mercenary activity began to rise in Syrian Desert in 2019, but its actual and strong return was in 2020 with large operations, mainly concentrated within the Aleppo-Hama-Raqqa triangle.

According to the SOHR, since 2019, Syrian government forces and affiliates of both Syrian and non-Syrian nationalities have lost 1,477 lives, all of whom were killed during attacks, bombings and ambushes of ISIS in Deir-ez Zor, Raqqa, Homs, Suwayda, Hama and Aleppo.

Four civilians working on gas fields and dozens of other pastoralists and civilians, including children and women, were killed in ISIS attacks.

Analysts and military experts maintain that the elimination of the alleged state of ISIS does not mean that the threat of ISIS remains with its ability to move its mercenaries out of sight in the areas from which it was expelled and mainly from Syrian Desert.

After the killing of a Russian general on August 18th, 2020 and the death of more than 100 elements of the Syrian government's forces during that period, Russia on the 25th of the same month drew significant reinforcements from the "Jerusalem Brigade", "Fifth Corps" and others to sweep the Desert.

ISIS hideouts are concentrated primarily in three areas deep in the desert: the first is in Monut Bishri in the southeastern part of Raqqa; the second in the Al-Dafina area in the southwest of Deir ez-Zor; The third is in the desert area between Palmyra and Sukhna from the west, and Area 55 from the south, the T2 Station from the east, and the Fayda Ibn Muwayna area from the north.

These areas are characterized by subtle terrain such as mountains, valleys and very deep caves, as well as expanding area size and daily sandstorms that block aerial visibility and quickly eliminate the effects of movements.

On the failure of Russia and Syrian government forces to limit ISIS mercenary attacks, Egyptian researcher on terror groups Sameh Eid said: "We are faced with guerrilla warfare and regular armies (referring to Russia and the forces of the Syrian government) always fail with guerrilla warfare."

Sameh said that "Ayman al-Zawahiri had warned against the idea of establishing a State where power is fixed and it is easy to fly to the stronger State, whether America or Russia, to bomb the fixed area and eliminate those in the area."

In guerrilla warfare, small groups were moved in mountains and caves, and in the case of land sweeps, regular armies send more forces, so armies rely more on air forces to track those groups, so there was little use: "We see that for 30 years America has been attacking by air in Afghanistan, but it did not reach Osama bin Laden until 20 years later, in 2011, when it killed him, but it has not reached bin Laden's successor Ayman al-Zawahiri yet."

Eid believes it is too early yet to eradicate ISIS, saying: "We are talking about a group that has adopted guerrilla warfare since the Russian intervention in Afghanistan in 1979. The terrorists in Afghanistan's war have dealt with the Russians and know how to think and deal with them through their performance. Air force will not end ISIS, and the situation in Syria and Iraq will continue for maybe years to come and maybe for a long time as well.

As for the support that ISIS receives, Eid explained that "America has spoken of the great wealth of gold that ISIS has kept through its stay in a country, taking taxes, selling antiquities, and there are still forces that have interests in one way or another with ISIS and support it."

Samah Eid stressed that the multiple sources of support that ISIS possesses, as its elements move in the form of small groups and use the guerrilla method of attacks, in the absence of a state, are minimal. This provides it with the necessary funds to buy arms and move and thus extend his life.

T/S

ANHA