Idlib.. a pressure card for negotiations; atmosphere lacks real solution to crisis

The "De-Escalation Zone”, which was formed by a Russian-Turkish-Iranian decision in July 2017, and extending from the north-eastern Lattakia mountains to the northwestern suburbs of the city of Aleppo, witnesses continuous and intense movements of the Turkish occupation, in terms of the continuous withdrawals from sites and the deployment to new locations and the withdrawal and recruitment of other columns of soldiers and military and logistical equipment.

Withdrawal from locations and taking up new positions

The Turkish occupation deployed mobile guard cabins in several locations on the Aleppo-Latakia International Road “M4” on January 4, especially near “Al-Kafir, south of Jisr Al-Shughour and the vicinity of Dama Al-Za'ayniyyah, west of Jisr Al-Shughour, and near the end of the joint patrols at the administrative border with Latakia “Ain al-Hor ”.

The joint Russian-Turkish patrols were absent on the international road since late August of 2020, after the two sides had conducted more than 26 patrols from March until August, after repeated targeting of the patrols.

Turkish expression to deepen understandings in northern Syria

Journalist and political analyst Malik Al-Hafez says in this context: “The withdrawal that took place is a Turkish expression of a desire to deepen understandings in the north of Syria, east and west, but Russia wants a greater share of control in the northwest (the M4 region, south of Idlib and north of Latakia) and in light of recent developments, the Ain Issa region alone will not be part of a deal in itself. "

Evacuations and reinforcements on other sites

While the Turkish occupation continues to withdraw from the besieged points within the areas of influence of the Damascus government in the "De-Escalation Zone”, it is spreading periodically and intensively within new locations there.

Deployment operations are mainly concentrated in Jabal Al-Zawiya in the southern countryside of Idlib, especially within the towns and villages located on the lines of contact with the Damascus government forces, in addition to their spread within points that enable them to monitor the area significantly.

The region is witnessing unprecedented reinforcements for the Turkish occupation through the transfer of thousands of soldiers and vehicles, as the Turkish occupation brings dozens of vehicles on a daily basis, carrying military and logistical materials and soldiers through the Kafrlossin border crossing with Iskenderun in northern Idlib.

Journalist and political analyst Malik Al-Hafez says that the recent moves and mobilizations of Turkey in Idlib are a message of a political dimension to Russia regarding the developments of the situation in Ain Issa, as Turkey seeks to occupy the city of Ain Issa, which is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces.

Ain Issa.. a Russian point to provoke Turkey

He adds, "Russia does not see the urgency in its favor as long as the situation in the northwest has not changed, so there is no change in the level of influence of terrorist groups, especially Jabhet al-Nusra, and there is no agreement yet on the form of influence and management of the region, while Russia does not want the control position to be in the northwest.”

Since last February, 11,185 Turkish trucks and military vehicles have entered Syrian territory

With the continued flow of military convoys of the Turkish occupation, the number of trucks and military vehicles that reached the "De-Escalation Zone” since February 2020 until now has increased to more than 11,185 Turkish military trucks and vehicles that entered the Syrian territories carrying tanks, troop carriers, armored vehicles and bulletproof mobile "guard cabins" and military radars.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, more than 12 thousand Turkish soldiers and more than 8 thousand military vehicles in 64 military points of the Turkish occupation are located within the " De-Escalation Zone”, including 4 main points that were not besieged by the Damascus government. Jisr al-Shughour and Zaytuna in Jabal al-Turkman, Salwa in the northern countryside of Idlib, and Samaan Castle in the western countryside of Aleppo.

Repeated deal in Idlib at the expense of other regions

Journalist and political analyst Malik Al-Hafez says that if the deal is concluded, it is no new. Russia was intending to place Ain Issa next to Manbij and some northern countryside in Aleppo in the balance of a deal with the Turkish side, but this matter decreased its opportunities with the developments of the American intervention in northern Syria and targeting the Guardians of Religion, in addition to the escalation that occurred in the Azerbaijani-Armenian crisis and the intertwining that occurred in that file between Russia and Turkey.

Malik indicated that any deal between Russia and Turkey will include withdrawal of Turkish forces from the besieged observation points, with Russia granting Ain Issa town to Turkey.

Iran is outside the equation of Russia and Turkey

Al-Hafez indicated that resolving the Idlib equation is a thorny matter, whether from the parties involved in this solution, and said: “The administration of US President Donald Trump was not politically interested in ending the intractability of the solution, and now there will be a new administration, as well as the overlap of files between Russia and Turkey. It primarily affected the solution in Idlib, in addition to the impact of the Corona pandemic.

Al-Hafiz noted that the intervening parties, especially Russia, will not reach the form of a final solution in the political part in Syria unless they see that their area of ​​influence has become satisfactory to them in different levels.

The journalist and political analyst Malik Al-Hafez believes that the prospects for any political solution will remain non-existent amid the increasing tensions and military build-up, which means that no real solution is coming soon in Syria.

J.O

ANHA