International crises classify Syria among the most conflict countries in 2021

The group said that, in Lebanon, Sudan, and Venezuela, it is possible to expect an increase in the number of unemployed, the collapse of income, and the dependence of the general population on state support at a time when governments are less willing to provide the people with the basic needs, according to Al-Hurra.

According to the group’s report, the most prominent conflicts expected in 2021 will be in Afghanistan. it said in this regard: “Despite the little and important progress in the peace talks, many things may go wrong in Afghanistan in 2021, after nearly two decades of fighting, the government has signed. The US government made an agreement with the Taliban last February, and Washington pledged to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan, in exchange for Taliban pledges to prevent terrorists from using the country for operations and to enter into talks with the Afghan government.

And added, "A rapid American withdrawal could destabilize the Afghan government, and perhaps lead to an expanded and multilateral civil war. On the contrary, a prolonged presence might push the Taliban to move away from the talks and intensify their attacks, which would lead to a major escalation."

On Ethiopia, the report said: “On November 4, the Ethiopian federal forces began an attack on the Tigray region, after a fatal attack from Tigray and the seizure of federal military units in the region. By the end of November, the army entered Mekele, the capital of Tigray. Matters are still unclear, in light of the media blackout, but it is possible that the conflict has killed thousands of people, including many civilians, in addition to the displacement of more than a million internally, and 50 thousand fled to Sudan.

According to the group, "If the federal government invested heavily in Tigray, and worked with the local civil service rather than emptying it from the ranks and file of the Tigrayan Liberation Front, and stopped harassment of the Tigrayans elsewhere, as well as managing contested areas rather than leaving them to Amhara officials, then there might be some hope In peace, it will be important, then, to move towards a national dialogue to address the deep divisions in the country in Tigray and beyond, but in the absence of that, prospects are bleak.

continues to worsen, with the increase in ethnic violence and the expansion of jihadists, and 2020 was the bloodiest year since the start of the crisis in 2012, when Islamist militants swept through northern Mali, pushing the region into a state of destabilizing."

"Without more concerted efforts to address the crisis of rural governance in the Sahel region, it is difficult to save the region from unrest, as this will require efforts from government and other actors to focus on mediating local conflicts and talking to militants when necessary," the Crisis Group said in its report. And using the resulting agreements as a basis for the return of state power, foreign military operations are considered necessary, but international parties should emphasize local peacemaking and pressure for governance reform.

On Yemen, the report said: "Yemen is no longer the country it was in in the early days of the war. It has fragmented as the conflict rages, and the Houthis and the government do not monopolize land or local legitimacy, as there are other actors who have interests, influence and authority."

According to the group, "the United Nations should expand its framework of work to include others, especially the Southern Transitional Council and the UAE-backed forces on the Red Sea coast, as well as tribesmen in the north, who could overturn any settlement they reject."

And in Somalia, "the elections are emerging amid bitter disagreements between President Mohammad Abdullah Mohammad and his opponents, and much depends on the presidential elections in February."

According to the group, "clean elections, the results of which are accepted by the main parties, can allow Somalia's leaders and their foreign backers to intensify efforts to reach an agreement on the federal relationship and constitutional arrangements, and to accelerate security sector reform. On the other hand, a disputed vote could lead to a political crisis that widens the gap." Between Mogadishu and the regions, which could lead to inter-tribal violence. "

In Libya, “the competing military coalitions in Libya are no longer fighting, and the United Nations has resumed negotiations aimed at reunifying the country, but reaching a lasting peace will remain an arduous struggle, and the dispute over power-sharing lies at the heart of all problems. Haftar’s supporters demand that the new government set up camps The Libyan National Army and the Government of National Accord are on an equal footing, and its opponents oppose the inclusion of leaders loyal to the LNA in any new regime.

It seems unlikely that fighting will break out again in the near future, because foreign parties keen to consolidate their influence do not want another round of open hostilities, but the longer the cease-fire conditions are not met, the greater the risk of unfortunate accidents leading to a return to war, to avoid this outcome, the United Nations should help craft a roadmap to unify Libya's divided institutions and de-escalate tensions between regional enemies. "

Regarding Iran, the report said: "In January 2020, the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani increased US-Iranian tensions, and Iran's response was relatively limited, and neither side chose to escalate."

The organization says: "The new US administration can calm one of the most dangerous confrontations in the world. In turn, the US President, Joe Biden, indicated that he would change the course, and Tehran has shown its readiness for mutual commitment to the nuclear agreement, and this seems to be the safest and fastest bet."

As for Syria, the report wrote “Syria between Ankara and Moscow,” and said: “The contradictions in relations between Ankara and Moscow are most evident in Syria, and Turkey was among the fiercest foreign opponents of the Syrian regime president Bashar al-Assad and a strong supporter of the rebels, while Russia intervened strongly to support al-Assad regime. In 2015, to turn the war decisively in his favor, since then, Turkey abandoned the removal of al-Assad and became more interested in fighting the YPG.

Although the March 2020 agreement between Moscow and Ankara halted the last round of fighting in Idlib, the organization expects that "the Syrian war has not ended yet, and another Russian-backed offensive in Idlib is still possible."

T/S

ANHA