Researcher in international relations: distribution of roles between Qatar- Turkey is a new chapter of war

International relations researcher Dr. Tariq Wehbe confirmed that the tension between Israel and Iran has not ended, but it continues in other frameworks and methods, pointing out that the distribution of roles between Qatar and Turkey is a new chapter of the war that paves the way for future regional and international arrangements.

Researcher in international relations: distribution of roles between Qatar- Turkey is a new chapter of war
25 April 2024   08:40

The past days and weeks have witnessed an increasing escalation between Israel and Iran, represented by the exchange of direct attacks for the first time since the outbreak of the escalation, which was a proxy war between these parties.

Since Israel recently responded by bombing the Isfahan region in Iran, calm has returned somewhat amid expectations about the return of the previous rules of engagement, represented by clashes in both Syria and Lebanon.

There is no end to the stress

Researcher in international relations, Dr. Tariq Wehbe, spoke to ANHA's agency, saying: “I do not see an end to the tension. It is ongoing and in different contexts, but the escalation that occurred caused Iran to use its missile capabilities and drones. It was an important display of military, but its result was zero in the military sense, meaning zero damage.” The issue is that the United States of America was able, through its mediators, to curb the extent of the response and even its course, and even Iran’s arms did not participate, except for some missile attacks close to the Lebanese-Israeli border.”

He believed that the most important thing is that Iran, as usual, used the terminology of "strategic deterrence" in order to convince its supporters that it still has the ability and power to intimidate Israel. He pointed out that the region may be heading towards a state of complete chaos, and attributed this to the inability to achieve progress in the course of the events in Gaza in addition to Washington does not encourage any Israeli military action in southern Gaza.

He noted that in this tense political atmosphere, support for the Iranian arms remains constant because they are not linked to any international agreements and they move under the command of the Revolutionary Guard, which derives its strength and support from Iran and its guide. Therefore, the fronts will remain hot, but will be relatively calm because even Iran is economically exhausted and wants a little calm to bring it together. Even if the moment had come to overthrow Israel according to its vision, he saw that Iran was focusing on Iraq because it is an important geographical extension and from there to Syria to ensure the arming of its factions along this Iraq-Syria-Lebanon line.

Distribution of roles between Iran and Turkey, a new chapter of the war

In parallel, talk increased about Qatar's retreat from the role of mediator between Hamas and Israel, leading to leaks indicating that the Hamas movement began searching for an alternative location to Doha.

Regarding this, Wehbe believes that “distributing the roles in the dialogue with Israel from Qatar to Turkey is a diplomatic concession after the Israeli accusations against Qatar, especially since the only media outlet that has a foothold in Gaza is Al Jazeera, which played an important role by broadcasting directly all the events inside the Palestinian and Israeli interior, and this it caused inconvenience to Israel and demonstrated that it is committing crimes against children, women and the elderly.”

He added, "Exchanging Qatar for Turkey is also a new chapter in the war because Erdogan's party, which is close to the Islamic movements, has begun to weaken and the opportunity is ripe for America to ask him to enter through mediation like the one Qatar was doing, without forgetting that the Turkish-Israeli diplomatic relations are old and frank despite the successive Palestinian crises. I believe." Turkey will not be able to go far in this mediation because Qatar was also a key element in financing the Hamas movement, while Turkey will not engage in this because it suffers from economic problems, debts, and the decline of the national currency against the dollar.”

A prelude to future arrangements

The researcher believes that, “In conclusion, Iran is evasive because next year the 2015 nuclear agreement will inevitably end, that is, after ten years, and there are no real prospects, especially since the American presidential elections are unclear because the race between Biden and Trump will ignite all arenas and the possibility of going to a new agreement that will free Iranian funds in... The West opens the door to a new settlement. Israel is still blaming everyone for passing the Iranian nuclear agreement, but it knows very well that the Iranian threat is the basis of the Israeli combat doctrine, because without a threat, Israel cannot obtain American weapons for free.”

He pointed out that "Turkey and Iran will constitute the pressing future in the Middle East region despite their internal problems, and the United States, which has lost even a little support from the Gulf, is trying to return by either removing obstacles to a solution in Yemen or ending the situation of Hamas in the military sense and helping to establish a new Palestinian authority."

T/ Satt.