Turkey mobilizing, regime getting ready, Russia escalating.. where Idlib going to?

The Turkish army and its mercenaries are mobilizing in Idlib militarily, the Syrian regime forces are getting ready, while Russia has escalated its rhetoric with Turkey. With all these facts, observers estimate that the situation is heading towards the settlement in Idlib area.

Once again, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened yesterday to start a military operation against the regime forces in Idlib, declaring during his speech before the Justice and Development Party’s parliamentary bloc that the military preparations for a broad operation have been over, and I am now sending the last warning to the Syrian forces to withdraw behind the Turkish observation points in Idlib.

Erdogan's threat came after he said that the talks between Ankara and Moscow on Idlib had not succeeded. The Russian Kremlin responded to that, warning Turkey that the military move against the regime would be the worst scenario.

According to observers estimation about the Turkish threats since weeks, the decision of the Turkish military move on the ground seemed more likely than any other time, which was demonstrated by its military mobilization in Idlib regions and the reinforcement of the mercenaries’ preparations before similar preparations from the regime forces and their allies.

While providing an estimation of what Idlib arena will witness after these threats, this requires a slight focus on the pretexts of the Turkish intervention in Syria.

Adana agreement ... Erdogan's lie by which he justifies his aggression against Syria

The Turkish president relies in all his statements about the Turkish military intervention in Syria and the ongoing aggression, whether the military or the unlimited support for the mercenaries in Syria since the beginning of the crisis on the basis of Adana agreement signed in 1998 under Egyptian and Iranian sponsorship.

However and depending on the terms of the agreement, Turkey does not give any justification for an intervention like the one it is doing now, as the intervention requires the approval of the two sides of Syria and Turkey, which Turkey does not care about. The agreement allows the Turkish army to enter only a depth of 5 kilometers after a real threat to its national security in order to protect its borders only, not to directly interfere in the Syrian territories to finance the armed gangs and establish military influences in the Syrian lands.

More than once, the regime’s Foreign Ministry responded to the Turkish president’s allegations saying: "Ankara has violated Adana agreement by supporting the terrorist groups since 2011, financing, training and facilitating their passage to Syria or through the occupation of Syrian territories."

Here, the Palestinian professor in the international law Abdul Karim Shubeir confirms to Hawar news agency that Turkey does not have any legal right or justification that allows it to interfere or practice any form of interference in Syria, and that this interference is an attack, and the occupation of the lands of a state with sovereignty is contrary to the state law."

He says: "The lands on which the Turkish army launches its attack must be dealt with as occupied territories to which international humanitarian law applies, and that any Turkish actions on this occupied land are invalid according to the international law and all the laws of the world, and constitute a war crime and a serious violation of the international law and the Rome convention which considers any occupation or interference with brute force as a war crime for which this state must be held accountable."

The professor notes that the international community must bear responsibility and prevent the Turkish actions in Syria based on human rights law and the criminal law which criminalize these acts and call of the states to deter their perpetrators."

Escalation in Idlib.. the impending military clash, and changing the Turkish tone

Returning to the threat of Erdogan, observers estimate that the chances of a widespread military clash between Turkey and the Syrian regime are both present and limited, as Turkey realizes that it will engage into a losing battle in Idlib according to two factors; the first of which is the regime forces that have the right to purify the towns from the armed gangs, and the other is that all these operations are taking place on the Syrian soil, not the Turkish one."

While other political analysts believe that the Turkish threats do not exceed the threshold of speech, and that Erdogan want behind it to obtain concessions from Damascus and Moscow in front of his strict desire to maintain the extension of military and political influence in Idlib as a power card in the face of the regime and Moscow.

In contrary to Erdogan’s threat, the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoglu said that there was a rapprochement with Russia in the talks on Syria.

Meanwhile, the political analyst and writer Mohamed Abo Mehdi ruled out during his interview with Hawar news agency that the situation in Idlib would slip into a broad military escalation with the possibility of a limited clash as an acceleration of the pace of political talks.

He said: "No party has announced its abandonment or dissolution of Sochi agreement, but in practice on the ground, Turkey has violated this agreement more than once with the support of the armed groups and bombing sites of the Syrian army on their own or through its proxies, which led one day to inflict the army a vast loss, and pushed it to move and advance on the axes of Idlib and Aleppo countryside."




He added: "The Syrian military moves on the ground are certainly taking place in coordination with Russia, and this bothers Erdogan and prompted him to recalculate his calculations, as we heard more than once by more than one Russian official the repeated warnings about Turkey's violation of Sochi agreement, the last of which was by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov who emphasized that Turkey does not adhere to Sochi agreement and supports the armed gangs, and that the Syrian army will not retreat from its recent moves and what it has achieved on the ground."

He continued: "Today, the Turkish foreign minister talked about strengthening cooperation with Russia and the convergence of views, contrary to the Turkish president's threats to launch a military operation."

It is estimated that: "It seems that Turkey is taking a step back and avoiding its threats. In return, the Syrian army is continuing to progress. It has been seen that Turkey realizes that the escalation and launching a military operation would inflict it with great losses, and that it would not reap the benefits it expected."