On Wednesday morning, The Arab newspapers touched upon the situation in Idlib and the Russian-Turkish differences, in addition to the Iraqi crisis, and the Turkish intervention in the Mediterranean.
Al-Sharq al-Awsat: Putin and Erdogan in Idlib: a pairing between "Adana" and "Sochi"?
The Arab newspapers issued this morning dealt with the Syrian issue several issues, the most prominent of which was the situation in Idlib and the Russian-Turkish differences. In this context, Al-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper said: "Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan are playing in Idlib's policy at the stake of collapse."
Each of them is still sticking his cards to his chest, the stage is Idlib, but the results of the escalation are linked to strategic bilateral issues, one of which may be the pairing between "Sochi Agreement" and "Adana Agreement".
The newspaper said: "Putin believes, according to a Western official familiar with Russian thinking, that the priority now is to open the economic arteries of government areas, this aims to stimulate the economic movement, which allows confronting the American plan based on" maximum pressure "on Damascus to extract concessions from Moscow, in practice: imposing a fait accompli before the start of the implementation of the "Caesar Law" in the coming June.
Also, for Putin, this means imposing facts as the Syrian presidential elections approach in the middle of 2021, allowing Russia to lead a public relations campaign to "legalize the regime" and return Damascus to the "Arab family".
The Russian Ministry of Defense wants to present a Syrian version of the "Grozny model" based on "social engineering" by emptying cities of stone and people, and rebuilding and housing them.
Therefore, the Sochi Agreement on Northwestern Syria is part of this Russian perception of "gradual restoration of Syrian sovereignty."
There is a "complementarity" between negotiations and battles to reach this goal, whether by fire or diplomacy. What is he betting on? On the firepower, and that he is the most prominent player and the owner of the key in Syria, and the acceptance of the countries that weaken Turkey in Syria, especially that its presence is "illegal", as it is betting on the approach or convergence of Tehran's current position with Moscow and Damascus in Idlib.
Erdogan, for his part, has come to view the Idlib file as "an internal matter of national security." He sent unprecedented military reinforcements, from equipment and soldiers, to Idlib and its countryside, and is still on the defensive.
He escalated the political discourse against Damascus and Moscow, informing through his negotiators that the government forces must return to the lines of contact under the maps of the Sochi Agreement, the date is the end of the month.
What is he betting on? It depends on Putin not going to risk losing what he has achieved with a NATO member country, whether in terms of developing economic and military bilateral relations or deploying the S-400 system near the US Patriot.
Erdogan also depends on the support he received from Western countries, especially from America. US Presidential Envoy James Jeffrey said that his country stands with its NATO ally and supports Ankara's demands to "restore the original lines of the ceasefire region reached in Sochi", and promised diplomatic and intelligence support, President Donald Trump told Erdogan by phone "his concern about violence in Idlib ».
Erdogan is betting on America, and Western countries' wager on investing in the gap between Moscow and Ankara.
Putin's delegation informed the elements of this position in the negotiations, Erdogan's delegates put their demands on the table, Erdogan knows the limits of American support, and that he will not reach the military side, Putin understands the importance of the "Atlantic Player" and the limits of the support coming from the regional allies of the "new Soviet".
Therefore, the door is still open for a deal. The policy of the "brink of the abyss" may lead to a new agreement that is blessed with a summit between the "Sultan" and "Caesar", one of its possibilities: new lines of contact that are north of the Aleppo-Damascus and Aleppo-Latakia roads in exchange for the deployment of Turkish forces in The new "De-escalation zone".
Al-Arab: The Brussels Conference warns of the danger of Turkish intervention in the Mediterranean
On the Libyan issue, Al-Arab newspaper said: "European deputies, Turkish politicians and experts from different countries of the world warned against the consequences of Turkish military intervention in the Mediterranean, and they unanimously agreed on the gravity of the situation in the Mediterranean region in interventions under the European Community, to combat extremism and terrorism, hosted by the European Parliament in Brussels on Tuesday. , February 18th at a conference titled "Turkish intervention in the Mediterranean: causes, objectives and risks".
Al-Bayan: Allawi's government between the demands of the demonstrators and the requirements of the parties
On the Iraqi issue, Al-Bayan newspaper said: "The Iraqi Prime Minister-designate, Muhammad Tawfiq Allawi, seeks to overcome the obstacles that stand in the way of his cabinet, which are being thwarted by the demonstrations of the protesters and the requirements of political forces, especially since most of those involved in politics are not interested in the country's problems, and the demands of the demonstrators are only to the extent of their danger to their presence and gains, as the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Masoud Barzani threatened to boycott the government of Muhammad Tawfiq Allawi and not to participate in it, while preparing for a second meeting with the parties after the failure of the meeting the day before yesterday.